HousingNowTO
Senior Member
File under ZONING REFORM... allow 15-Storey boxes with 1,000+ m2 floorplates everywhere again...
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Zoning Reform Ideas
- Thread starter A Torontonian Now
- Start date
Northern Light
Superstar
Not zoning, per se.........but seems apt for this thread:
"BMO chief economist Doug Porter adamantly denies Canada’s housing affordability issue has been caused by lack of supply,
“How many times have we all been told in the past year that Canada’s raging housing market is largely due to the fact that we have “the lowest supply of housing in the G7″? ... First, Canada’s supply is not particularly out of line with the OECD average, and certainly not much different than any of the UK, U.S., or Australia. (And we have made the point many times that given a younger population than Europe or Japan, we would naturally have a lower ratio—kids don’t own homes.) Second, a technical point, Canada is in fact NOT lower than the U.S., so it isn’t even the lowest in the G7. Yet, somehow, our average home prices are (roughly) 60% higher on average than in the U.S., with essentially the same level of supply per capita. Yes, we should do all we can to encourage supply; but clearly there is more at work here than that. "
“BMO chief economist does NOT agree that Canada’s housing bubble was caused by lack of supply” – (research excerpt) Twitter
Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inv...economist-denies-canadas-housing-supply-myth/"
allengeorge
Senior Member
I love how his research note is silent as to what is the problem, beyond “Clearly there is more at work here”.
I mean - no one in their right mind thinks supply alone is the solution. Many of us in this thread have said that, and with more rationale than Doug Porter. Maybe we should start writing research notes.
I mean - no one in their right mind thinks supply alone is the solution. Many of us in this thread have said that, and with more rationale than Doug Porter. Maybe we should start writing research notes.
Northern Light
Superstar
To be fair to Mr. Porter, what's referenced is a single slide from a research note.
But the rest is restricted access on BMO's site.
I'd add, Porter doesn't oppose more supply, he simply feels that that is not the critical issue.
You get a hint of that view here:
Canada’s Oldest Bank Begs, “Could we PLEASE Stop With This Supply Myth?” - Better Dwelling
One of Canada’s most prominent economists really wants you to stop blaming high home prices on supply. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter explained Canada is promoting an incorrect supply narrative. In a piece literally called, Could We PLEASE Stop With This Supply Myth?, he breaks down a chart...
betterdwelling.com
Digging a bit more, I found:
From: https://betterdwelling.com/hyper-st...g-canadian-real-estate-prices-not-supply-bmo/
There's actually more good info at that link above that elucidates Porter's opinion, but I don't want to screenshot all of it.
The essence is that the U.S., Australia, and the Netherlands have all seen similar spikes in housing prices and that they can't all be short on housing supply, or we'll have to do zoning reforms in all those places..
Rather, its contended that this is really a function of low interest rates and buyers of multiple properties; a bubble driven, intentionally by low-interest rates from Central Banks, which is a commonality between the cited nations.
Northern Light
Superstar
John Lorinc over at Spacing does a good demolition job on the Pollievre package of lies.
He also touches on the range of issues affecting the cost of housing and interestingly notes zoning's role, but as part of a long list.
Just one excerpt from the above:
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He also touches on the range of issues affecting the cost of housing and interestingly notes zoning's role, but as part of a long list.
LORINC: The horrible lies of Pierre Poilievre's real estate lessons - Spacing Toronto
Why do we have a housing crisis? Let me count the ways: Low interest rates, restrictive zoning, permissive zoning, contractor shortages, building material costs, over-reliance on markets, under-investment in social housing, onerous building codes, condo laws, financialization, fees, bureaucratic...
spacing.ca
Just one excerpt from the above:
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Undead
Senior Member
People will be very surprised how much new supply hits the market when interest rates reach 2.5%+ by the end of next year along with 10-20% price declines for the detached segment.
afransen
Senior Member
If it's not lack of supply, and it's also not just interest rates (US also has low interest rates), it would have to be maybe mispricing of risk due to government guarantees of mortgage debt?
Undead
Senior Member
The difference is that low interest rates in the US cause money to pour into stocks. That's their thing. Real estate is ours. RE has become the only game in town in Canada and I think that accounts for the greater magnitude of our bubble.
SpookyManta
New Member
Hello everyone, I'm new to the forum so forgive me if this is old news but I went back a few pages and couldn't see any discussion about this.
The city initiative EHON (Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods) has been having public consultations about allowing multieplexes as well as local retail citywide. There will be further citywide consultations on April 20th and 21st, with links to be found at the city's website: https://www.toronto.ca/city-governm...tudies-initiatives/expanding-housing-options/
Yesterday's consultation for the Toronot/East York Area has also been uploaded to youtube:
They also held a reddit AMA about a week ago:
The city initiative EHON (Expanding Housing Options in Neighbourhoods) has been having public consultations about allowing multieplexes as well as local retail citywide. There will be further citywide consultations on April 20th and 21st, with links to be found at the city's website: https://www.toronto.ca/city-governm...tudies-initiatives/expanding-housing-options/
Yesterday's consultation for the Toronot/East York Area has also been uploaded to youtube:
They also held a reddit AMA about a week ago:
Northern Light
Superstar
Column on housing prices/affordability crunch by Jen Gerson of 'The Line'.
There's a good deal I don't agree with from the above columnist, but she's no one's fool and often has interesting takes.
This one is worth a quick read.
theline.substack.com
There's a good deal I don't agree with from the above columnist, but she's no one's fool and often has interesting takes.
This one is worth a quick read.
Jen Gerson: No one is going to fix housing
Houses exist to juice the economy and keep the elderly afloat on paper gains well into their retirement years.
theline.substack.com
evandyk
Senior Member
I just mostly skimmed it, but I don't even think she mentioned that virtually every politician at every level is a homeowner, so have a vested interest in keeping home prices high rather than doing something about the problem.
Undead
Senior Member
Another issue is that low interest rates help the government keep borrowing excessively to buy votes with social spending. So there's a disincentive to raising the rate too much.
Northern Light
Superstar
While there is certainly a government incentive to keep interest rates low; I would suggest to you that the evidence shows a declining proportion of budget is devoted to social spending.
That the proportion devoted to corporate welfare and tax credits has grown much faster.
Read back the massive tax give away when corporate tax (federal) was lowered from 28% to 15% as an expenditure.............
Consider equally the tax credits going to those who are upper-middle income and above (this applies to many of us here at UT).....when capital gains was cut from 75% inclusion to 50%; or the invention of
RESPs, TFSAs, and a host of other previously non-existent tax shelters.
Never mind the small-business rate of 9% which didn't used to exist at all either.
The notion that that savings of lower interest rates has benefited those of low or lower-middle incomes via social spending is simply inaccurate.
Undead
Senior Member
Oh no, I'm not suggesting we're doing social spending right. I just mean that because the government is so reliant on debt for spending of all stripes (I should have been more broad in this statement instead of focusing on social spending), there's an incentive to keep rates lower.
allengeorge
Senior Member
I thought I would share this tweet thread on how the city comes up with DCs:
Background report: https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/8e7e-DC-Background-Study-Draft-April-2022.pdf
One commenter on the thread noted that the "benefits to existing development" of only 47% for something like Union Station (probably more of these in the report) was highly questionable.
(For someone who's wondering, basically you figure out the cost of the upgrade, guess at how much of that would have been required to benefit existing people vs. new development, and come up with DCs based on that. It's about as handwavy as it sounds, but...I get it. You gotta start somewhere - even if I disagree with some of the premises/numbers).
Background report: https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/8e7e-DC-Background-Study-Draft-April-2022.pdf
One commenter on the thread noted that the "benefits to existing development" of only 47% for something like Union Station (probably more of these in the report) was highly questionable.
(For someone who's wondering, basically you figure out the cost of the upgrade, guess at how much of that would have been required to benefit existing people vs. new development, and come up with DCs based on that. It's about as handwavy as it sounds, but...I get it. You gotta start somewhere - even if I disagree with some of the premises/numbers).