News   Oct 02, 2024
Pieces of the Puzzle
 318     0 
News   Oct 01, 2024
Amexon Partners With Luxury Italian Designer for Missoni Sky on Jarvis
 1.6K     1 
News   Oct 01, 2024
Indigenous Spirit Garden Opens at Nathan Phillips Square
 742     0 

Your election night predictions.

My prediction for Election 2006:

Conservatives - 120 seats
Liberals - 100 seats
NDP - 29
Bloc - 59

Conservative minority which will fall within two years.

With a newly elected leader the Liberals will sweep back into power with a majority government.

Louroz
 
Con: 153
Lib: 51
NDP: 51
BQ: 51
Green: 1
Ind (Andre Arthur): 1

[tee-hee]
 
Voters once again chicken out in the end.

Liberal 116
Cons - 113
Bloc - 58
NDP - 21 (Sadly both Jack and Olivia win).

Jack and Stehpen will have no choice but to step down as leader. Paul would be wise to follow suit.

I hope I am so wrong though about my numbers.

Go Cons Go!
 
Elections Canada is saying it is illegal to spoil your ballot. That is really going to hurt the Conservatives because no ballot is more spoiled than one with an X beside the Conservative's name. :D
 
I'm not making my own predictions, but here's a link to a fantastic website mentioned in today's Star:
democraticspace.com/blog/predictions/

Gives very detailed riding & regional breakdowns. A few highlights I picked out:

Seats:
Conservative - 128 (36.8% of national popular vote)
Liberal - 94 (29.5%)
Bloc - 56 (10.7%)
NDP 29 (17.3%)
Independent - 1 (talk show host from Quebec)

* Greens will get 5% nationally
* Olivia will win
* Belinda will lose
* Peter Kent will lose
* Sid Ryan will lose
* Landslide Anne will lose her Edmonton seat
* The four major party leaders will win their seats, Jim Harris of the Greens will not be competitve in his riding
* Toronto will go all liberal with the exception of 3 NDP seats (Jack, Olivia, and the riding of Parkdale-High Park)
* 905 - 9 Liberals, 12 Conservatives
* Ontario - 49 Liberals, 44 Conservatives, 13 NDP
* Quebec - 56 Bloc, 12 Liberals, 6 Conservative


So...
If the predictions hold true, a Conservative/NDP coaliation would have 157 seats, 2 more than the 155 needed for a majority of the House.
A Conservative/Bloc coaliation would have 184 seats.

Politics do make for strange bed-fellows.
 
Aw c'mon Archivist, you've had the entire upper echelon of the Ontario bureaucracy working on your prediction - running computer models, number crunching, holding focus groups - for days in their spare time. You can't fool us with your false modesty.
 
Babel's crystal ball predicts ...

Conservative: 145
Liberal: 70
Bloc: 52
NDP: 40
Ind: 1
 
I'm always incredibly wrong about these things, so what won't happen is:

Cons - 147
Libs - 71
Bloc - 62
NDP - 27
Ind - 1
 
democraticSpace is indeed excellent. Also check out the Election Prediction Project. Both sites seem to predict the same thing as far as the NDP and the BQ go. Differences arise when it comes to the two biggest parties and their projected sizes for the Conservative win. democraticSpace suggesting the Conservatives will take 128 seats (with the Grits holding onto 94) while the Election Prediction Project estimates the Conservatives will take only 118 (compared to 104 for the Libs). Should be an interesting night.

For fun...

My predictions for tonight...

*Conservatives (121 seats)
*Liberals (103 seats)
*BQ (56 seats)
*NDP (30 seats)
*Independent (1 seat)

Other predictions...

*Olivia Chow will squeak a win in Trinity-Spadina...finally. The NDP vote will be way-up in T.O., but not enough to flip any other seats (although Davenport, Beaches-East York and Parkdale-High Park may prove to be close).

*Liberal strength will once again surprise pundits in Ontario. While people may not have wanted to admit to pollsters they are voting Liberal, they just may do that in the voting booth. Not enough to prevent a Harper minority, but definitely enough to prevent a majority. Look for some significant Conservative gains in the GTA's 905 belt though. Peter Kent won't take St. Paul's though meaning the Conservatives will once again be shut out of the 416.

*Some high profile cabinet ministers will go down including Pierre Pettigrew, Belinda Stronach and Ann McLellan.

*As soon as a Conservative government is officially announced, look for some members of the party to finally say something incredibly frightening on the social front.
 
The fun thing is to get campaign workers for the candidate you're not voting for to waste their time take you to the polls.
 
Make that 4 calls today. I confirmed that they lost a vote in this household to the Liberals due to the repetitive calling.

5:16pm update. One more Oliva Chow call and a Tony Ianno call. Give it a rest campaign offices! I am sick and tired of these phone calls today.

5:26pm update. One of their offices called again. I can't be bothered to look up the number anymore to determine which campaign office is calling. The phone keeps ringing... I can't wait for the polls to close. I am getting a headache from the phone. Is there a party that is against parties telemarketing I can vote for next time around?
 
Olivia Chow's campaign office is panicked or something. In the last two days they have called FOUR times (3x today) and knocked at the door once. My significant other was going to vote for her but she was getting frustrated by the barrage of calls and I'm not sure who she voted for. I wonder if a campaign office that can't keep track of who they called and overcalls to the point of coming across intrusive and desparate is going to backfire. They sounded like they would carry NDP voters on piggyback to the polls if required. I even got an e-mail from the NDP HQ last night and I have no idea how they got the e-mail address they used.
 
The real shame is that the Conservatives won't win Ajax-Pickering. That candidate would have been great cannon fodder.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top