Who will be the next Liberal leader?

[unimaginative2]

Haha...oops! I had just been reading Gagnon's column right before I made the post. I must have had her on the brain. It was Louise Beaudoin.

Couldn't agree more, bizorky.

 

[Irishmunk]

This is almost the perfect scenario for Kennedy and I'm sure he's not disappointed in the slightest. He's only 45 so he has at least another 20 good years left in him. If he won the leadership and lost the next federal election his federal career might be over. If Dion loses the next election, then Kennedy is primed for another shot at the leadership. If the Dion liberals form the next government, Kennedy will be the #2 guy and the Ontario--really the English Canadian--lieutenant. And when Dion retires Kennedy will still only be in his fifties--still plenty of time to be a long serving--rather than caretaker--PM. And, incidentally, this is all very good news for Toronto (and all Canadian cities--'cept maybe Calgary).

 

[Abeja de Almirante]

how do you explain the massive majorities that pierre trudeau and jean chrétien won?

Okay then, I stand corrected. Dion has a definite shot of winning in Quebec, and even in Alberta :rolleyes

Seriously though, I expect that the Bloc and Conservatives are rightfully or not, sitting rather pleased. Now, time will tell of course. I think Layton's NDP may be concerned, as we're going to have two leftist leaders fighting for the same vote.

 

[Bogtrotter]

"a new poll in the globe and mail shows that 2/3 of quebeckers approve of stéphane dion."

Yeh- my Qeb connections tell me that he is quite favoured among PQ federalists and the acedemia. Stephane has the limelight now- and it is well earned. He knows quebec politics and culture tenfold over the rest of the candidates.

I'll be interested in what he does on the environmental issue in future though.

 

[bizorky]

Harper has no cake-walk in front of him. While the Liberals may or may not gain back all the seats they used to hold in Quebec, it is clear that they won't sink as low as last time around.

Both the Conservatives and the NDP are watching their numbers shrink somewhat in Ontario. The NDP might take the worse hit as Dion is viewed as being left of centre.

I'm sure there is honeymoon effect in the polls for Dion. It will be interesting to see whether he can convert those honeymoon numbers into long-standing support. The Conservatives will go down on the next budget, but they will use their personal tax cut plan as a plank to attack parties that disagree with their budget.

 

[Darkstar416]

and even in Alberta

Wrong again, with or without Dion, the Liberals can't easily expect to win more than five seats in Alberta. More likely just one or two in the Edmonton area, but even that's a stretch.

 

[Observer Walt]

I don't see much short-term potential for improvement in Quebec for the Liberals. I found it interesting that in the recent byelection in Repentigny, the Bloc won (no surprise), the Conservative came second, the NDP candidate (!) came third, and the Liberal fourth. My understanding is that the disillusionment with the Liberals runs pretty deep in Quebec right now.

In Dion's favour, he was untouched by scandal, and apparently he also managed somehow to stay above the infighting between Chretien's camp and Martin's camp over the past several years.

Things may change of course, but I repeat what I said earlier somewhere. The Liberals will need almost a miracle to win even a minority government in the next election. The chances of a majority are almost nil. I think they know it, and I think in selecting Dion, they were actually looking two elections down the road.

Whatever happens, I don't think Dion will be given the boot after the next election, unless he proves to be a complete and total failure as a campaigner, which I doubt.

 

[adma]

I think the timing of the Repentigny byelection was everything--beyond the virtual Liberal non-campaign, it was right after the Harper "nation declaration" and right before Dion became leader. Maybe an Indian summer for the Quebec "Harper honeymoon"; thus the solid second place...

 

[adma]

Wrong again, with or without Dion, the Liberals can't easily expect to win more than five seats in Alberta. More likely just one or two in the Edmonton area, but even that's a stretch.

I think Abeja was being sarcastic in mentioning Alberta...

 

[Abeja de Almirante]

I think they know it, and I think in selecting Dion, they were actually looking two elections down the road.

Perhaps Dion's role is to simply keep the party alive until one of Trudeau's sons takes the role.

 

[Christopher DeWolf]

justin trudeau might go into politics someday, but i don't envision much success for him. exactly what is the difference between him and ben mulroney, again?

i really think that the liberals have an excellent chance of winning a minority government in the next election. harper's support has only declined since the conservatives came into power and dion is a lot more capable than a lot of people think. the quebec media's antipathy towards him is a huge joke; they're totally out of touch with public opinion in this province.

 

[spmarshall]

exactly what is the difference between him and ben mulroney, again?

One didn't get his job through his daddy selling off government assets at firesale prices to BCE and then sitting on said company's board of directors after being the most hated PM in recent history. Now that son's annoying us reguarly in a job that no talent is required.

Other than that, I don't know.

 

[Abeja de Almirante]

harper's support has only declined since the conservatives came into power

I don't know about that. My wife, who has ALWAYS voted NDP, and is a huge fan of Layton, and who supports SSM, said today she thinks Harper's done a good job, and that he's nothing like the scary, white-hooded far-right socon that the opposition predicted. She's considering voting CPC next time around. Now, if Harper can turn my NDP-supporting spouse to their side, the Conservatives are safe.

I can't wait to see the English language debate, as this will be Dion's undion'ing, er... undoing.

 

[bizorky]

Well, if you move from voting NDP to Conservative, its going to bring questions about how dedicated that vote was in the first place.

What exactly are Harper's successes so far?

 

[Abeja de Almirante]

Well, if you move from voting NDP to Conservative, its going to bring questions about how dedicated that vote was in the first place.

Time's change. Voting one way simply because you've always voted that way is not smart IMO.