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Who will be the next Liberal leader?

I find Kennedy kind of flat. I have not read anything that really sounds wildly original or inspiring. Yes, he is new, but he is so new that he does not have a national profile other than his novelty. Does he have potential? Yes. Should he be leader now? I am not so sure.

I like Rae, but I am tentative. I think he has learned from his mistakes. He now has a profile as a person active in a number of national agendas, and has considerable experience in government. I feel for Dion, mostly because this guy has been a loyal soldier for the party. The irony is that he is identified with old Liberal party values at a time when the party is struggling to be "new," but does not quite know how to be so.

For anyone following the whole Iggy-pop-Quebec-as-a-nation thing, you can here the noise of a "flop" emerging after the original flipping sound. He has now rolled out a whole set of caveats to somehow deflect the damage that he has done to the party. Sadly, the cat's out of the bag, and it has caused a pretty big rift in the party. Iggy will be long back at Harvard expounding his virtues before this crack in the Liberal party is healed.
 
^Even though you have reservations about Kennedy, the more I learn about the candidates the more I believe that Dion and Kennedy are the only two choices the Liberals should make. The others shouldn't even be in the running at this point.
 
It will be interesting to see how the convention goes. The first ballot won't decide anything. After that anything is possible. Will someone prominent go to Iggy, or to Rae; or will Kennedy and Dion join up?

Stay tuned...
 
It seems that while on sabatical from Harvard, Iggy is working on destroying a viable political party and looking to generate ethnic strife in a country he pretends to call home.


Liberal peace talks bog down
Squabbling over Quebec-as-nation issue hinder bid to avert battle at convention

CAMPBELL CLARK
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
OTTAWA — Talks to strike a deal to avert a divisive Liberal leadership convention battle over recognizing Quebec as a nation are stalling as the candidates spend more effort fighting over the controversy.

While all four of the leading contenders publicly expressed a willingness to compromise, several people involved with the talks said there has been little progress while some candidates battle it out with newspaper essays and television interviews.

"I do not sense a deal is imminent, but there is still some discussion going back and forth," said last-place candidate Martha Hall Findlay, who has been involved in the talks.

The Liberals' Quebec wing passed a resolution last month calling for the province to be recognized as a "nation within Canada" and for a task force to examine ways of "officializing" that status. The party is to select a new leader at a convention Dec. 2 in Montreal.

While talks about a compromise over the Quebec issue have slowed, they now include not only the main contenders, but also the four trailing candidates, party officials and some of the Quebec Liberals who proposed the resolution.

Several said the candidates have, at least so far, preferred to try to take advantage of the debate, rather than coming closer to a compromise.

A new Environics poll suggests both sides of the debate could have something to gain in different parts of the country -- although it's risky.

The poll found that 61 per cent of Quebeckers feel Quebec is a nation within Canada, and 34 per cent disagree. But in the rest of the country, the sentiment is the opposite: 64 per cent disagree, while 32 per cent see Quebec as a nation within Canada.

Outside Quebec, opposition to changing the Constitution to recognize Quebec as a nation is overwhelming: 83 per cent are opposed, and only 13 per cent approve.

In an opinion piece this week, candidate Bob Rae warned that pushing the concept suggests Canada has a flaw that must be fixed and the fact that former PQ premier Bernard Landry lauded the "ambiguous language" should worry federalists.

Front-runner Michael Ignatieff has faced a backlash outside of Quebec for his support of the resolution -- and some of Mr. Rae's organizers privately admit they are in no rush to let him off the hook. But some of Mr. Ignatieff's Quebec supporters argue that its popularity in the province could fuel second- and third-ballot convention support, as turnout could be higher among Quebec delegates that weekend.

Mr. Ignatieff's campaign co-chair, Montreal MP Denis Coderre, insisted yesterday that support for Mr. Ignatieff's campaign has not stalled and "is growing in Quebec like you wouldn't believe" -- although he said that is not solely because of the nation issue.

Mr. Ignatieff, meanwhile, has defended the resolution on Quebec television, and in an essay in The Globe and Mail today, he says the resolution is only a "gesture of recognition and respect" and does not require constitutional change. He says that although he has said Quebec should be recognized as a nation in the Constitution, it does not mean special status for the province.

Mr. Ignatieff's campaign has said it would accept a compromise that would make it clear that the resolution does not call for constitutional change. Other campaigns have asked for more dramatic change.

Stéphane Dion told The Globe yesterday that most Canadians do not want to see the word "nation" in the resolution. He said one way to reword it might be to refer to a "national group," or to assert the party would "respect the fact" that Quebec is a national group, rather than call for recognition, which, he said, "means Constitution in my mind."

He said he thinks the debate has been improvised, and that many groups in Canada might also want to be called nations in the Constitution, from aboriginal first nations, to Acadians, and possibly even Newfoundlanders, who used to have a separate Dominion.

But he said the issue will not divide the party unless Liberals keep stoking the conflict. "For me, it's important to downplay all this. It's a resolution. I don't think it's a clear one. I don't think it's a helpful one. I will vote against. I am voting against other resolutions," he said. "It will not affect the unity of the party."

With a report from Canadian Press
 
"The poll found that 61 per cent of Quebeckers feel Quebec is a nation within Canada"

It's conforting to see that the number is this low, espically after claims that this is an "accepted truth" in Quebec by many proponents of the 'nation' idea.
 
It all depends on what you mean by nation. I wonder what the Cree nation within the Quebec nation of the Canadian nation thinks about all this. It's a stupid debate really... a waste of time.
 
It's conforting to see that the number is this low, espically after claims that this is an "accepted truth" in Quebec by many proponents of the 'nation' idea.
Click to expand...
The reason it is so low could be because many Quebecois feel they are a nation "outside" Canada.
 
Just imagine the media outrage if the Conservatives were to invite some major Republican figure to their convention.


Howard Dean to headline Liberal convention
Nov. 10, 2006. 01:55 PM
CANADIAN PRESS


MONTREAL — The Liberal party will turn to a Democratic heavyweight from south of the border to inspire the troops during their convention.

Liberals hope to learn from former presidential contender Howard Dean who changed the way U.S. parties finance campaigns in the run-up to the 2004 election with his grassroots, Internet-based appeal.

As chair of the Democratic National Committee, Dean was a leader in this week's mid-term elections that gave his party control of the U.S. Congress.

Liberal national director Steven MacKinnon says Dean's campaign helped reinvent the way democracy and political parties work.

The Liberals elect their new leader on Dec. 2.

It's the second time in a row the Liberals have gone outside Canada to find a keynote speaker.

Bono spoke at the convention in 2003 where Paul Martin became party leader.
 
"Just imagine the media outrage if the Conservatives were to invite some major Republican figure to their convention. "

I donno... I think it depends who. I don't think anyone would get worked up by John McCain, Newt Gingrich, or a number of other people. It would have the possibility of bad optics, tho. The provincial Libs were criticised in the media for bringing James Carville here to speak at their event just a few weeks ago.
 
Quebec as a Nation – A Liberal Albatross

Source: “SES Research National Survey.â€
web: www.sesresearch.com

The symbolic recognition of Quebec as a nation has traction only in Quebec. Outside of Quebec – it is quite likely to push voters away from the federal Liberals. The two key battlegrounds for the next election are Ontario and Quebec. Think of the trade-off. On the one hand you have a net negative impact in Ontario (10% more likely to vote Liberal while 54% say they would be less likely to vote Liberal), while there is a potential upside in Quebec (40% more likely to vote Liberal while 12% less likely to vote Liberal) where voters can already opt for the pro-Quebec Bloc. This is dangerous and volatile ground for the Liberals.

Methodology
Polling between November 5th and November 10th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


Canadian Voters (N=1,002, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Question: If the Liberal Party of Canada adopted a motion to symbolically recognize Quebec as a nation would you be more likely to vote Liberal, less likely to vote Liberal or would this have no impact on your likelihood to vote Liberal

More likely to vote Liberal (16%) – (40% in Quebec)
Less likely to vote Liberal (40%)
No impact on vote (36%)
Unsure (8%)
 
Mixed bag for Liberal leadership hopefuls

Courtesy: “SES Research National Survey.â€
web: www.sesresearch.com

In order to understand the possible impact of the new Liberal leader, SES has looked at the how Canadians voted in the last election and correlated that against whether Canadians would be more or less likely to vote Liberal under the new leader. Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with no candidate having a clear advantage over the other.

However, of note – Bob Rae has the ability to attract some of those who voted NDP in the last election to the Liberal banner. Stephane Dion is a non-starter among BQ voters in Quebec – not surprising considering his pro-federalist views. Michael Ignatieff generally trades off those he would attract compared to those he would not attract with the exception of NDP voters would be less likely to vote Liberal under an Ignatieff leadership. Gerard Kennedy could hold onto the Liberal vote in the last election but would have difficulty growing Liberal support.




Methodology
Polling between November 5th and November 10th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


Canadian Voters (N=1,002, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Question: For the last federal election earlier this year, which party did you vote for locally (724 Canadians who provided an answer)

Conservative 37.5%
Liberal 31.0%
NDP 14.9%
BQ 12.5%
Green 4.2%

Because of the complexity of the tables, you should visit our website at www.sesresearch.com to download the stats. Here are the highlights.

Ignatieff as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 16% (Among 2004 NDP voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 29%)
No impact 47%
Unsure 17%

Rae as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 30%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 24% (Among 2004 NDP voters 22%)
No impact 42%
Unsure 14%

Dion as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 14% (Among 2004 BQ voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 23% (Among 2004 BQ voters 29%)
No impact 48%
Unsure 15%

Kennedy as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 12%
Less likely to vote Liberal 21%
No impact 50%
Unsure 17%
 
question...

Is all the Quebec as a nation stuff coming up specifically because Michael Ignatieff started the discussion?

If so, Ignatieff should just shut up and lose. I'm quickly becoming very anti-Ignatieff.
 
Re: question...

Ignatieff is sunk. Not that I would vote Liberal anyways so it doesn't matter all that much too me. Maybe if he had spent more time in Canada in the past 30 years he would have known that discussing unity is a big no no. You either shut up and hope it all goes away, or if you must talk about it, rant, rave, and express opinions based on ignorance and intolerance.

I am sure this will all blow over soon enough and people will return to ignoring the issue.

Is all the Quebec as a nation stuff coming up specifically because Michael Ignatieff started the discussion?
Click to expand...

From a recent CBC article, here is how Ignatieff found himself in this situation.

"The Quebec wing of the Liberal party voted in late October to recognize the province's nationhood, a proposed resolution that stirred up hornet nests around the Constitution. .... When the Quebec Liberals penned the statement, the most resounding support came from leadership front-runner Michael Ignatieff, who drew criticism from all sides for his contention that he was "with" those who say Quebec is a nation."

So in fact he did not start the discussion. He only expressed an opinion on what he thought of the PLQ resolution.
 
Re: question...

The word "nation" has many meanings. If the Cree of Quebec can be considered a nation, then why not Quebec itself? Personally, I think this debate is a waste of time... I mean, really, who gives a flying f*ck?
 
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