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What brought down Bazis' 1 Bloor East project?

I have to correct one blatant glaring mistake you made, which discredits you and therefore your whole argument.

The Canadian government did NOT report a 50 billion dollar deficit for the year, they are PROJECTING one for the 2009-10 fiscal year. The US may have had a 500 billion dollar deficit last year, but that was while the Canadian government had a 2 billion dollar deficit for the 2008-09 fiscal year. So you can't say that's the same on a per-capita basis! For 09-10, the US's deficit will be closer to $1 trillion.

I won't address the rest of your comments, you had some interesting points, but the truth is nobody really knows what the future holds.

I wouldn't say it really discredits what I said. We may not be on the same level on a per capita basis right now, but we are very close, if only a year behind the US's debacle. And look at the numbers you posted. In one year we went from 2B to a projected 50B deficit. That is a 25x increase, whereas the US experienced a 2x increase.

Agreed, we don't know what the future holds, but based on the past I would not be the least bit surprised to see it repeat itself.
 
Capitalism is an imperfect system, markets go up and down, we all die... "there is nothing to fear but fear itself"... there, that ought to fix things.
 
Capitalism is an imperfect system, markets go up and down, we all die... "there is nothing to fear but fear itself"... there, that ought to fix things.

And that right there is the real problem. This mentality exists, that when things are good and people are making money, then capitalism is working as designed. However, when markets go down, and people lose money, then capitalism is somehow no longer working, and we need economic socialism (keynesin economics - government intervention, printing money, bailouts, gross manipulation of interest rates) to fix capitalism. The only way free markets can function freely, is if they are in fact free. That's why the government and central bankers need to stop meddling.

When AIG lost it's shirt, it wasn't because capitalism was flawed, and that there wasn't enough regulation. They lost their shirt because they got stupid, and very greedy. Instead of bail them out, the US government should have let them fail, and let another more responsible company buy up their good assets (maybe our own manulife) while writing off the bad assets, essentially allowing the new company to start over.

Take the above and apply it to any bank or company (GM).

As for this idea that letting companies fail equals a loss of jobs, I beg to differ. I think we can all agree that capital is a finite resource. The government can either leave it for good companies to use to expand their businesses, and hire new workers (create employment), or they can siphon it away and give it to irresponsible companies all in the name of "saving jobs". The jobs we "saved" quite possibly cost us even more new jobs that could have been created if that capital was in the right hands, hence a net loss in jobs.

Anyway, I guess that's $0.04 from me now. Sorry for more OT. We should get an economics thread going. :D
 
As for this idea that letting companies fail equals a loss of jobs, I beg to differ. I think we can all agree that capital is a finite resource. The government can either leave it for good companies to use to expand their businesses, and hire new workers (create employment), or they can siphon it away and give it to irresponsible companies all in the name of "saving jobs". The jobs we "saved" quite possibly cost us even more new jobs that could have been created if that capital was in the right hands, hence a net loss in jobs.

No, I don't agree. True, capital is finite in the sense that it is not unlimited in quantity, but it is hardly fixed either. The sort of zero-sum economics you describe was discredited centuries ago. In reality, we need to look at both quantity and velocity (how quickly money circulates) to determine how much "money" is in use. The point in keeping various big companies alive is not so much bailing out their owners as it is ensuring that the employees (both those of the company in question, and those of their suppliers and customers) continue to circulate money -- in other words, keeping the money supply from shrinking too much, with all the negative effects that would create.
 
The only way free markets can function freely, is if they are in fact free. That's why the government and central bankers need to stop meddling.

The markets will never, ever be truly free. There will always be meddling.

I recommend checking this book out (by a U of T Prof, no less). It just came out a few months ago and he discusses this topic.

Filthy Lucre by Joseph Heath
 
No, I don't agree. True, capital is finite in the sense that it is not unlimited in quantity, but it is hardly fixed either. The sort of zero-sum economics you describe was discredited centuries ago. In reality, we need to look at both quantity and velocity (how quickly money circulates) to determine how much "money" is in use. The point in keeping various big companies alive is not so much bailing out their owners as it is ensuring that the employees (both those of the company in question, and those of their suppliers and customers) continue to circulate money -- in other words, keeping the money supply from shrinking too much, with all the negative effects that would create.

And this is where free market thinkers differ. Your belief that we must stop the money supply from shrinking too much is not one I agree with. We need to let the money supply shrink because it grew too quickly in the previous boom cycle. It was not sustainable growth, nor was it real growth. The "wealth" people thought they had in rising home equity was all a mirage created by easy money. It was nothing more than a pyramid scheme. The economy needs to rebalance. What the government is doing by providing bailouts is propping up all the bad debt that has been accumulated. Debt that needs to be erased. This idea that the US government can buy illiquid assets is asinine. Illiquid assets have no value. There's no doubt that if the government does nothing, economic pain will be felt. But that will be short term pain. Two years of bankruptcies, purging of bad assets, layoffs, and overall contraction of the economy, versus what we have now, which is massive inflation and debt, irresponsible management of interest rates, and the threat of stagflation, all of which are far more serious than a severe two year recession.

I would rather save the capital for the responsible businesses in the private sector to use to create new sustainable jobs and growth. It's true that the effects of this may not be felt right away (your point about velocity), hence the bad two year recession described above. But it is far more responsible than giving money to GM, AIG, etc.

I wouldn't call free market capitalism outdated. It's funny how keynesians label free market capitalism as something that sounds good in a text book, but is not achievable in the real world. And when you look at how keynesian economics is described in text, and how the real world results compare, I think it is the one that makes for good reading and nothing more.

There's my $0.06. :D

Here is a recent clip from Peter Schiff. I found it interesting.

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-8-19-09_lg_FLV.asp
 
The markets will never, ever be truly free. There will always be meddling.

I recommend checking this book out (by a U of T Prof, no less). It just came out a few months ago and he discusses this topic.

Filthy Lucre by Joseph Heath
That is true. Nothing (us as people, the markets) will ever truly be free. However, as little intervention as possible would be ideal IMO.

And thank you for the book recommendation. I will check it out. :)
 
That is true. Nothing (us as people, the markets) will ever truly be free. However, as little intervention as possible would be ideal IMO.


isn't that what caused the problem in the first place? not enough regulation?
 
Another great critic of free market fundamentalism is Robert Shiller. One of the founders of behavioral finance, Shiller has demonstrated that even free markets are not rational. Well constructed regulations are thus needed as market irrationality can lead to disaster. Shiller predicted both the dot com bubble and the housing collapse based on his models.

His entire course on financial markets is available online at Yale University. It takes some time, but if anyone really wants to understand these things watching these lectures is a great start.
 
The government can either leave it for good companies to use to expand their businesses, and hire new workers (create employment), or they can siphon it away and give it to irresponsible companies all in the name of "saving jobs". The jobs we "saved" quite possibly cost us even more new jobs that could have been created if that capital was in the right hands, hence a net loss in jobs.
:D

This is the point. Why enable people that have demonstrated lack of responsibility? We will all have our own opinion of what should be but I do believe that "the strong will survive". We need strong reliable companies and employment to pull us along. Not mis-managed companies (and governments) to bleed the funds.
 
isn't that what caused the problem in the first place? not enough regulation?

Cheap, easy money (ie artificially low interest ratres), is what caused the problem. Everyone says, well, if we had more regulation and oversight, then AIG would not have been allowed to issue so many credit default swaps. We could have capped them, and then it would have minimized the damage to that company, and the banks whose mortgages they were insuring. However, had the federal reserve not irresponsibly lowered interest rates to such an artificially low level then there never would have been a housing bubble to pop, which in turn means that AIG never would have had to issue as many CDS as they did, thus avoiding the whole problem to begin with. As I said above, when people are making money, capitalism is great and working well. When they start losing money, all of sudden capitalism is broken, and there wasn't enough oversight, and now we need socialism to save capitalism. The federal reserve made the first mistake by lowering interest rates far too low. However, businesses and individuals need to take responsibility for using those low rates to turn the housing market into a casino. No one forced them to gamble, but they did, and they need to suffer the consequences.

Another great critic of free market fundamentalism is Robert Shiller. One of the founders of behavioral finance, Shiller has demonstrated that even free markets are not rational. Well constructed regulations are thus needed as market irrationality can lead to disaster. Shiller predicted both the dot com bubble and the housing collapse based on his models.

His entire course on financial markets is available online at Yale University. It takes some time, but if anyone really wants to understand these things watching these lectures is a great start.

Thank you for the link. I will take a look at that. :) Without seeing any of his lectures, I will say that I am not fan of onerous regulation, and over regulation. All regulation does is introduce hurdles and create inefficiencies for business. The labour and capital used to satisfy regulation could have been used to better the business, hire new workers, and in general create more wealth. Too much regulation siphons away labour and capital from better use.

Ideal for the markets? Perhaps. Ideal for your average person? Probably not.

I think it is ideal for everyone. As said above, too much regulation destroys potential wealth and creates inefficiencies. The labour and capital used by businesses to adhere to regulations could have been used to hire new workers, invent new products, create innovations, and overall create more wealth. This is good for everyone, not just the market.

I can speak first hand about Sarbanes Oxley. It is an onerous piece of legislation, one that weighs down organizations. The time, money, and effort used by the company I worked for to become SOX compliant was horrific. That time, money, and effort is gone forever and we will never get them back. We could have used them to better business.

This is the point. Why enable people that have demonstrated lack of responsibility? We will all have our own opinion of what should be but I do believe that "the strong will survive". We need strong reliable companies and employment to pull us along. Not mis-managed companies (and governments) to bleed the funds.

Someone agrees with me! :D All this bailout money created via inflation destroys everyone's wealth as it devalues the currency, and makes the cost of goods more expensive. Ultimately everyone's purchasing power is diminished, and if our income does not rise in accordance with the inflation, the our wealth declines, as does our standard of living. The people who get punished the most from bailouts are the responsible people that worked hard and saved their money, as now, their savings are worth less. People on fixed incomes will also get hit hard. Also, the low interest rates means that people with savings get very little return. The only way for them get something back is to "invest" in the stock market, or flip houses, thus creating more speculation and bubble conditions. All of this money printing though is wonderful for the irresponsible folks. They have no savings. They are in debt. Whatever free cash they can get their hands on is good for them. So ultimately, the responsible pay for the mistakes of the irresponsible, and we are all poorer and in worse shape for it.
 
I will say that I am not fan of onerous regulation, and over regulation. All regulation does is introduce hurdles and create inefficiencies for business. The labour and capital used to satisfy regulation could have been used to better the business, hire new workers, and in general create more wealth. Too much regulation siphons away labour and capital from better use.

Your view that unregulated financial markets will efficiently allocate capital sounds very similar to the efficient-market hypothesis. The problem is that most of the evidence points to that hypothesis not being correct. When analyzed, free markets have some major inefficiencies.
 

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