VIA Rail

[kEiThZ]

What irks me, and will always irk me is where that money is spent. Everyone outside of the QC - W feels they are ignored by the federal government.

As they should. The business case to build passenger rail in most of the country sucks. The only exception might be Calgary-Edmonton. And even that was questionable until substantial recent population growth in Alberta.

The good news about HFR is that once the Quebec-Windsor Corridor is separated out, you'll get an agency that is all about the rest of Canada. The cuts that follow the loss of cross-subsidization from the Corridor will be very educational to haters who always whine about the Corridor. It'll be interesting to see how much you complain about VIA hating the rest of Canada then. We'll see if you finally realize this was never about people who work at VIA and always about the politicians who refused to fund the agency properly.

Employees are not CEOs.

You don't say? But you also seem to think planners (like Urban Sky) who work(ed) at VIA are anti-rail. So.....

Just a different form of conspiracy mongering. No different than anti-vaxxers who think doctors are idiots because they saw "the truth" on TruthSocial.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think I would personally choose access to a family physician before I would choose a train to Sudbury.

Exactly. There are so many priorities that people place above intercity rail that it's almost unbelievable that VIA actually survives. And for the average federal politician there's almost no VIA project where the same money spent on other priorities won't deliver more votes. This is exactly why even HFR is taking so long and still massively cost constrained. If you're a politician looking at $12B in capital for HFR, you're also start daydreaming at what $12B invested in local transit, hospitals and schools and community centres will deliver.

It's even worse for a Liberal government. Rural areas are heavily conservative biased (or NDP if they vote left). So the political return on investment is even worse. If they aren't going to vote for you anyway, why bother investing? Kinda like what conservatives do to urban transit when they are in power provincially and federally.

 

[micheal_can]

As they should. The business case to build passenger rail in most of the country sucks. The only exception might be Calgary-Edmonton. And even that was questionable until substantial recent population growth in Alberta.

Demographics of Calgary - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Calgary has had substantial growth, but it always has had that kind or growth. One could expect planners could have looked at the past growth and could have projected the current population.

The good news about HFR is that once the Quebec-Windsor Corridor is separated out, you'll get an agency that is all about the rest of Canada. The cuts that follow the loss of cross-subsidization from the Corridor will be very educational to haters who always whine about the Corridor. It'll be interesting to see how much you complain about VIA hating the rest of Canada then. We'll see if you finally realize this was never about people who work at VIA and always about the politicians who refused to fund the agency properly.

There has been no indication that anything will happen outside of the Corridor once the HFR is operational outside of the replacement of the long distance fleet.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Next VIA set crossed into Canada today. Of note is that this delivery is just the Venture cars, no locomotive. VIA currently has an “extra” Charger locomotive with no matching trainset, so this “balances it out”.

 

[kEiThZ]

There has been no indication that anything will happen outside of the Corridor once the HFR is operational outside of the replacement of the long distance fleet.

You should read the budget. The Corridor won't be around to prop up the rest of VIA once HFR launches. Substantial amount of VIA's fixed costs are amortized over millions of Corridor fares. That sugar daddy is moving on. The rest of the network might actually have to cover their own costs.

 

[micheal_can]

You should read the budget. The Corridor won't be around to prop up the rest of VIA once HFR launches. Substantial amount of VIA's fixed costs are amortized over millions of Corridor fares. That sugar daddy is moving on. The rest of the network might actually have to cover their own costs.

I know that the Corridor is a money maker to some degree. I saw nothing that shows there would be any dividing up of Via. Can you show me specifically where that is?

 

[lead82]

This is all a pipe dream. HFR is not funded and may never actually get built. Even if it does why do you think HFR won’t need subsidies. It very well will until ridership builds up and until the infrastructure is paid off. There will still be the regular lakeshore line for non-express service that will likely be reduced that should still get decent riders from London and Kingston to Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

I hope that hider ridership will beget more funding for more service. The main reason ridership is so bad on Via is that its service levels are awful.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

If HFR gets off the ground substantially before the next election it would be great. But if not then it’s almost guaranteed to be dead if an election is called. They didn’t have much luck with using the Infrastructure Bank.

Either way, VIA Rail is pretty much done for. HFR will remove a big chunk of revenue that it enjoys at the moment. Or if a new government is elected it’s almost guaranteed that cuts will come for VIA Rail until it is hobble to the extent that service is canned once a for all.

After all these years of trying to get HFR up and running I really don’t have much faith that it will. The Liberals aren’t serious about it and never was. Now that polls and the public are hammering away at the Liberals for their poor policy decisions, the government is scrambling to assuage voters (eg. housing and immigration). Rail transport will be (is) shoved off the table. If a new government comes in it’s almost guaranteed that HFR will be canned and VIA rail will just be folded.

 

[micheal_can]

If HFR gets off the ground substantially before the next election it would be great. But if not then it’s almost guaranteed to be dead if an election is called. They didn’t have much luck with using the Infrastructure Bank.

Either way, VIA Rail is pretty much done for. HFR will remove a big chunk of revenue that it enjoys at the moment. Or if a new government is elected it’s almost guaranteed that cuts will come for VIA Rail until it is hobble to the extent that service is canned once a for all.

After all these years of trying to get HFR up and running I really don’t have much faith that it will. The Liberals aren’t serious about it and never was. Now that polls and the public are hammering away at the Liberals for their poor policy decisions, the government is scrambling to assuage voters (eg. housing and immigration). Rail transport will be (is) shoved off the table. If a new government comes in it’s almost guaranteed that HFR will be canned and VIA rail will just be folded.

The HFR runs through CPC rich ridings. I doubt they will touch it.

 

[Urban Sky]

Even if it does why do you think HFR won’t need subsidies. It very well will until ridership builds up and until the infrastructure is paid off.

You have to differentiate between operating and capital subsidies and between variable and fixed costs. VIA‘s Corridor already generates enough revenues to exceed its direct operating, as evidenced by the big service expansion between 2014 and 2019 shrinking rather than increasing its overall (i.e. after adding fixed costs) subsidy need. The question is really not whether HFR/HSR would recover its operating costs (as VIA already does so today, despite infinitely more challenging constraints), but whether it would also recover its construction costs…

 

[crs1026]

You should read the budget. The Corridor won't be around to prop up the rest of VIA once HFR launches. Substantial amount of VIA's fixed costs are amortized over millions of Corridor fares. That sugar daddy is moving on. The rest of the network might actually have to cover their own costs.

The Canadian and Ocean are most assuredly a package that will come up for debate when the equipment reaches end of life. I can see a pretty compelling push to privatize it.... it's effectively a cruise ship on land..... and possibly no bidders stepping up to invest in new equipment.

Beyond that, the isolated service trains could survive but maybe as spinoffs. But one certainly doesn't need a marketing department and a reservation computer to sell space on the White River RDC. VIA as a full scale corporation with the usual set of corporate functions is likely toast.

The interesting thing will be the non-HFR parts of the Corridor. In theory, the bidders are contracted to operate it, so will be including it in their bid price for building and operating the core HFR. There's lots of room to bury a "subsidy" in the fine details of the HFR financing, but who backstops any loss? If parts of the network do lose money, is Ottawa happy hiding that fact in the price? And how does one leverage any growth in that business? Or justify abandoning or downsizing the less profitable parts?

- Paul

 

[micheal_can]

You have to differentiate between operating and capital subsidies and between variable and fixed costs. VIA‘s Corridor already generates enough revenues to exceed its direct operating, as evidenced by the big service expansionbetween 2014 and 2019 shrinking rather than increasing its overall (i.e. after adding fixed costs) subsidy need. The question is really not whether HFR/HSR would recover its operating costs (as VIA already does so today, despite infinitely more challenging constraints), but whether it would ever recover its construction costs…

Is there anything on the split of the Corridor service from the Long Distance service?

 

[Urban Sky]

If HFR gets off the ground substantially before the next election it would be great. But if not then it’s almost guaranteed to be dead if an election is called. They didn’t have much luck with using the Infrastructure Bank.

Either way, VIA Rail is pretty much done for. HFR will remove a big chunk of revenue that it enjoys at the moment. Or if a new government is elected it’s almost guaranteed that cuts will come for VIA Rail until it is hobble to the extent that service is canned once a for all.

After all these years of trying to get HFR up and running I really don’t have much faith that it will. The Liberals aren’t serious about it and never was. Now that polls and the public are hammering away at the Liberals for their poor policy decisions, the government is scrambling to assuage voters (eg. housing and immigration). Rail transport will be (is) shoved off the table. If a new government comes in it’s almost guaranteed that HFR will be canned and VIA rail will just be folded.

While I share some of your concerns for HFR and the Liberals deserve every blame for dragging this on for so long, I don’t see any mortal danger for VIA if HFR gets cancelled, as it serves far too many seats and really doesn’t consume that much subsidies. This ain‘t 1988/89, when VIA‘s subsidy was a billion (in today‘s prices) and the new fleet is the best life insurance for continued Corridor services…

 

[lenaitch]

Exactly. There are so many priorities that people place above intercity rail that it's almost unbelievable that VIA actually survives. And for the average federal politician there's almost no VIA project where the same money spent on other priorities won't deliver more votes. This is exactly why even HFR is taking so long and still massively cost constrained. If you're a politician looking at $12B in capital for HFR, you're also start daydreaming at what $12B invested in local transit, hospitals and schools and community centres will deliver.

Sounds strangely familiar to your day job.

 

[dowlingm]

While I share some of your concerns for HFR and the Liberals deserve every blame for dragging this on for so long, I don’t see any mortal danger for VIA if HFR gets cancelled, as it serves far too many seats and really doesn’t consume that much subsidies. This ain‘t 1988/89, when VIA‘s subsidy was a billion (in today‘s prices) and the new fleet is the best life insurance for continued Corridor services…

Except a Venture trainset is pretty saleable to a desperate government compared to LRCs, HEPs and Rens. That said, it is the other Canadian Venture customer I think possible if not probable to be selling at some point.