Good points. I've been wondering too how they see 12 Kingston-Toronto trains. Even with Express trains, I have a hard time imagining the many trains being supportable.
Yeah I don't see how those communities could support 12 Kingston-Toronto trains either. But if there were 12 trains, here's what I would do with them:
I figured that to avoid redundancy, the extra trips would be used to increase the variety of stopping patterns. I also threw in a couple super-express trips for the benefit of Toronto, Kingston, Cornwall and Montreal travellers, on the basis that the lakeshore route is probably time-competive with the HFR route due to its shorter distance. So during the busier times of day, the "ICE" trips provide extra capacity to siphon a bit of Toronto-Montreal demand off the HFR route to leave room for customers to/from Ottawa.
Also, a good point. I've always thought it strange how people look at Coburg as so much bigger than Port Hope.
From an operations perspective it's far easier to stop trains at Cobourg because it has 3 platforms, while Port Hope only has 1. So to serve Port Hope, trains may need to cross over to the other track, massively increasing conflicts with other trains.
The station access is also terrible, there isn't even a sidewalk.
Port Hope
Cobourg
Also, I've always wondered why express trains skip Guildwood. Oshawa and Union are substantially less convenient to the eastern GTA. Especially with transit. And I would think this would particularly be the case in 10-15 years when Eglinton East LRT connects at Guildwood.
Guildwood has pretty poor connections, actually. The only transit access is the buses which happen to pass by along Kingston Rd, which are still 200m away from the station itself. And those aren't even regional buses.
The bus services at Oshawa have much more significant catchment, being a primary hub for Oshawa DRT buses, as well as GO buses travelling across the GTA along both the 401 corridor (Pickering, UTSC, STC, York Mills, Yorkdale) and 407 corridor (UOIT, Unionville, RHC, 407).
I can see how, if there will be 12 trains arriving Kingston from Brockville, one would try to retain enough slots west of Kingston to match their arrivals with potential departures westwards. Doesn’t mean you have to use every slot, but better to retain what VIA has now than give it up and try to pry it back from CN later.
I wondered about truncating those Ottawa trips at Brockville rather than Kingston to avoid using the CN line at all, but I decided against it since the timed transfer in Kingston means that they would be running right next to another VIA trip anyway. So the net impact on CN would be negligible, it would basically be one slightly-longer VIA slot. In contrast, if those trips continued to Toronto, you'd probably want to spread them out more to improve the effective frequency, or have one of them run express to improve speed. Either way the impact on CN would be far greater than what I showed in my earlier 8-train schedule.
@reaperexpress Must say that the schedules between Toronto and Montreal are not good. Though day trips are clearly out, having no departures after ca 16.30 is terrible and means it is not easy to attend a meeting and get back home that night.
The schedule between Montreal and Toronto is irrelevant because nearly all Toronto-Montreal service would be via the HFR route which is not shown.