I'm not sure why the surprise. The VIA design for Quebec-Windsor in the 1980s for faster speeds than we are talking now, included a lot of single track. And a lot of passing points. It's been done elsewhere -http://
www.railjournal.com/index.php/high-speed/spain-plans-single-track-high-speed-lines-to-cut-costs.html
Good points; if they own the track and have a state of art system installed (Let me guess: CTC + CBTC like Metrolinx plans for GO RER), the train meets will be manageable for hourly service. Our resident VIA employee (Urban Sky) did assert they have good timetable reliability on
their owned single track already. I believe them!
If average real-world ends up 2h45min
at first until nursed into longer sidings and double track, we could live with that, it's now faster than car even taking into account of transit connections.
Investments in third party infrastructure will only be made when necessary, provided there are guarantees of expected benefits. As demonstrated in the recent past, however, these guarantees will be difficult to obtain as market conditions evolve and freight traffic continues to grow. This in turn supports the notion of continuing to evaluate the relevance of operating on a dedicated passenger rail infrastructure." (VIA Rail
2015-2019 Corporate Plan Summary, p.3-4)
Indeed, the question is... Can they pull off 2.5 hours Toronto-Ottawa on just $4bn?
Can they pull off a Metrolinx-style arrangement of building a corridor adjacent to CN/CP corridor -- like the Pickering section?
Electrification may actually make it easier to
repel the freight trains.
As we know, their policy is to not run freight under catenary (though I imagine this may change -- like at crossing points). There's a lot of things that need to be solved, lots of oily scrap metal being transported in bucket cars without tarp covers. This presents huge arcing risk under catenary, lest wind or load shifting bounces a light metal bar, floaty metal foil, or springy scrap wire a little closer to the catenary (while also shaking up some metal dust to make air a little more conductive)... and
ZAP!, a 1-to-2-meter 25,000-volt electric bolt jumps from the wire into the air, completing the circuit from wire to freight train, potentially tripping a switching station circuit breaker...
...
killing the peak-hour GO service *and* creating a small fire on that freight train car...
It just has to happen once a year to be a massive business problem for CN/CP. New operating rules becomes needed, including freight bucket covers probably now becoming mandatory, verifying proper functioning grounding on all freight cars to harmlessly redirect (hopefully rare) arcing incidents, and other little details like this, before freight trains are allowed under catenary.
CN/CP may just not bother, to keep costs low.
TL;DR: That +$1bn VIA electrification could be a very good passenger-over-freight priority guarantee by itself!