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VIA Rail

Passenger service was still run by CN. There was an incentive to move passenger trains fast. Now, CN couldn't care less. That is why a segregated VIA route is so important.

"Couldn't care less" is a bit simplistic. Freight trains today don't look like freight trains in 1967. They are three times as long (and more), they are a lot harder to manouever, there are fewer spots to tuck them away en route, and the passenger trains are now running in hourly slots rather than one train every 2-3 hours. And, while the shareholder of 1967 (ie the Canadian government) was ok with freight productivity and passenger economics lagging, today there is a shareholder that is relying on the investment to make money, and a government with shallower pockets for passenger train subsidy. It's a very different playing field altogether.

- Paul
 
Gosh, 3 trains a day from Toronto to Montreal, all running in under 4 hours.

Uhh, where, exactly? The first train scheduled to operate at 4 hours or less was the Metropolis in 1992. The best that CN could do in the Corridor was 4.30, and that was with the much-vaunted TurboTrains.

If you're referring to the three Turbo slots at the right-hand side of the April 1967 schedule, those were simply projected times and not what was actually operated once the Turbo actually started service in December 1968.

As for "why Guildwood"? As part of the launch of GO transit service, CN took the opportunity to rationalize their services in the Toronto area. They closed many of the suburban stops, and operated just two on the east side, both in new locations - Oshawa and Guildwood.. Both also received new buildings as part of the process. And both were sited in such a location as to allow for reasonably large parking lots with reasonably good road access, as it was assumed that people would drive to the station and park in order to get on the train.

Dan
 
Uhh, where, exactly? The first train scheduled to operate at 4 hours or less was the Metropolis in 1992. The best that CN could do in the Corridor was 4.30, and that was with the much-vaunted TurboTrains.

If you're referring to the three Turbo slots at the right-hand side of the April 1967 schedule, those were simply projected times and not what was actually operated once the Turbo actually started service in December 1968.
Ah, it didn't run ... a bit before my time. But hang on ... CN ran far better than 4:30 ... then ran 4:10 with stops in Dorval and Guildwood in the early 1970s with the Turbos when they finally got them running reliably.

That 1967 proposed 3:59 should have been doable, as it skipped both Dorval and Guildwood. And both those 1967 times and the 4:10 were before they moved the track through Kingston east of Division Street to the new, faster, alignment in 1974.
 
Yeah, because spending $billions to run almost 5-hours to Montreal is better than finding ways to again run less than 4 hours along the existing alignment.

There's no way to reliably run hourly service with a 4 hr run time to Montreal on the Lakeshore corridor. Can't be done. Aside from the freight traffic, there's the curviness of the track, the roughness of the track (from freight use), higher number of non-grade separated (and busier) crossings, etc.

The Kingston sub project should have taught everyone enough lessons. Investing more in the track of this corridor is simply a flat out subsidy to CN to improve their freight business. Does nothing for VIA.
 
There's no way to reliably run hourly service with a 4 hr run time to Montreal on the Lakeshore corridor. Can't be done. Aside from the freight traffic, there's the curviness of the track, the roughness of the track (from freight use), higher number of non-grade separated (and busier) crossings, etc.
No way? There are ways. Expropriate the land from CN, build parallel tracks, give running rights to 2 tracks to CN. You still don't need grade-separations.

There's no ways to do it, thinking inside the box. At the same time, you don't need hourly service if it's going to take the milk run through Peterborough ... and you think the CN line is too curvy!

The Kingston sub project should have taught everyone enough lessons. Investing more in the track of this corridor is simply a flat out subsidy to CN to improve their freight business. Does nothing for VIA.
The lesson is don't give CN the money. Expropriate the track from CN. Sadly, I doubt anyone will ever have the guts to do it. Nor do I expect anyone is going to build the Peterborough alignment without a huge government subsidy - which I also don't expect.
 
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Worse. The current mess creates public antipathy towards VIA. Most of the public does not understand VIA's situation. So they don't sympathize. I see complaints all the time about how expensive VIA is, how unreliable the services are, etc. I've seen comments complaining about the cost of the Canadian, by people comparing similar services to Amtrak.

Given this operating context, how long can VIA survive? The GTA alone will add an extra million residents over the next decade. Ottawa and Montreal add several hundred thousand. All those folks will drive further demand for goods. VIA's services will get worse. And public support will plummet with that, at the exact same time as subsidy demands keep growing. If HFR doesn't come through, I can honestly see VIA getting broken up and sold off with many of the services going to private tour operators. The services that are really unviable after substantial fare increases from those private operators would probably shut down.

This is make or break. And the Liberals are already 2-3 years behind on where they should be. Imagine what more dithering will do in 2021 when the report comes back and says VIA's $4B was unrealistic and the real price tag is twice that. I can see a repeat of the Wynne Hydrail distraction when they got sticker shock on GO RER. "We need to send it back for more study." - the line to be used for the 2023 election. This is why I am so upset and disappointed at this state of affairs. I can see what's coming down the pipe.

My friends are always surprised, amazed, confused, think im wrong when I tell them that Via Rail is owned by the government of Canada.

They think they are some private company. They are amazed to find out that their tax dollars are paying for it. I think if more people in Canada understood that Via is a government agency they would be more up in arms about the service and what should be done. At least my more liberal leaning friends, which is almost all of my friends.
 
No way? There are ways. Expropriate the land from CN, build parallel tracks, give running rights to 2 tracks to CN. You still don't need grade-separations.

There's no ways to do it, thinking inside the box. At the same time, you don't need hourly service if it's going to take the milk run through Peterborough ... and you think the CN line is too curvy!

The lesson is don't give CN the money. Take the track from CN. Sadly, I doubt anyone will ever have the guts to do it. Nor do I expect anyone is going to build the Peterborough alignment without a huge government subsidy - which I also don't expect.

At the risk of cycling through an old debate..... widening the Kingston line to three tracks throughout, and placing short passing sidings every ten miles down that third track, would give VIA the same single track line they aspire to on the Havelock line, and leave CN alone with their two existing tracks. No need for freight to get in the way of passenger, or vice versa. The line would be of better quality and less curvy than what VIA can achieve through Havelock. The quality of the ride can then be managed because no freights need use that third track. So it has to be a better deal than Havelock, and it separates freight and pax just fine.

I suspect CN would have pause with that idea, because they don't need two tracks throughout for freight only. So they might be inclined to offer some (enforceable) concessions, which might be an improvement over the single track with sidings. The current crossover plants are an average of about 10 miles apart, and CN would likely pull up every third segment. Instead, assign them to VIA's exclusive use. That gives long passing lengths for VIA.

As to grade separations, there is already a lot of public money invested on the Kingston line in grade separations and crossing protection, and expansion rough-ins, with an eye to protecting passenger service. ... again, more than CN needs for freight only. I wonder what portion of that investment remains to be paid off. Walking away from that past public investment is a hidden cost to the Peterboro line....CN will find a way for government to write that down, in fact much of the investment may already have been paid by the taxpayer.

I would like to see these two options compared head to head.... and that hidden past investment writedown included as one cost line in the Peterboro option.

- Paul
 
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No way? There are ways. Expropriate the land from CN, build parallel tracks, give running rights to 2 tracks to CN. You still don't need grade-separations.

There's no ways to do it, thinking inside the box. At the same time, you don't need hourly service if it's going to take the milk run through Peterborough ... and you think the CN line is too curvy!

The lesson is don't give CN the money. Take the track from CN. Sadly, I doubt anyone will ever have the guts to do it. Nor do I expect anyone is going to build the Peterborough alignment without a huge government subsidy - which I also don't expect.

One is a 'eminent domain' purchase - the other is theft from a publicly-traded company. People wonder what a chill the province's cancelling of the Beer Store contract would have on industry trust and confidence. That would pale in comparison.
 
One is a 'eminent domain' purchase - the other is theft from a publicly-traded company. People wonder what a chill the province's cancelling of the Beer Store contract would have on industry trust and confidence. That would pale in comparison.
Good grief ... given the first time I phrased the action as "expropriation" and then I summarized it as "take" I'm clearly talking about doing it through normal legal means. I don't see the need for such statements!
 
As a mental exercise, I wonder what the fair market value would be for the corridor and assets. I don't know enough about railway operations to know if running rights comes with a cost element of if it is simply legal permission. Either way, it might be a good deal for CN to operate on a ROW that someone else has to pay to look after.
 
As a mental exercise, I wonder what the fair market value would be for the corridor and assets. I don't know enough about railway operations to know if running rights comes with a cost element of if it is simply legal permission. Either way, it might be a good deal for CN to operate on a ROW that someone else has to pay to look after.

From CN's 2018 Annual Report: Total Assets $41.2B USD Total Route Miles 19,500 Adjusted ROIC 15.7%

So, a typical route mile represented an asset worth $2.112M, delivering a return of $332K

Dorval to Pickering - 310 miles, simple math suggests an asset worth $655M, delivering a return of $103M

Too many puts and takes to look at this any more exactly than that. The Kingston Sub is a double track line with CTC, so likely the asset value is higher. But traffic is lower than many route miles eg the Transcon west of Winnipeg. Much of that traffic travels a longer distance than just the 310 miles we are interested in, so its contribution to earnings for that one segment is hard to guesstimate.

To put that notional return of $103M in perspective - VIA Rail's 2018 Passenger revenues were $369M CAD.

- Paul
 
At the risk of cycling through an old debate..... widening the Kingston line to three tracks throughout, and placing short passing sidings every ten miles down that third track, would give VIA the same single track line they aspire to on the Havelock line, and leave CN alone with their two existing tracks. No need for freight to get in the way of passenger, or vice versa. The line would be of better quality and less curvy than what VIA can achieve through Havelock. The quality of the ride can then be managed because no freights need use that third track. So it has to be a better deal than Havelock, and it separates freight and pax just fine.

I suspect CN would have pause with that idea, because they don't need two tracks throughout for freight only. So they might be inclined to offer some (enforceable) concessions, which might be an improvement over the single track with sidings. The current crossover plants are an average of about 10 miles apart, and CN would likely pull up every third segment. Instead, assign them to VIA's exclusive use. That gives long passing lengths for VIA.

As to grade separations, there is already a lot of public money invested on the Kingston line in grade separations and crossing protection, and expansion rough-ins, with an eye to protecting passenger service. ... again, more than CN needs for freight only. I wonder what portion of that investment remains to be paid off. Walking away from that past public investment is a hidden cost to the Peterboro line....CN will find a way for government to write that down, in fact much of the investment may already have been paid by the taxpayer.

I would like to see these two options compared head to head.... and that hidden past investment writedown included as one cost line in the Peterboro option.

- Paul

Its been stated here before, but CN flat out refuses to allow VIA to build their own dedicated tracks in their corridor. Period. Full stop. And honestly, I dont blame them. Its private land they own, you give up that to the government and its now public property.

The only thing they will let VIA do is have the government pay CN to construct more tracks, that CN gets exclusive rights over. As what happened with the sidings in 2011ish, and it was what was going to happen in Halifax before city council realized what a terrible idea this was and put a stop to it. As was the right decision.
 
Its been stated here before, but CN flat out refuses to allow VIA to build their own dedicated tracks in their corridor. Period. Full stop. And honestly, I dont blame them. Its private land they own, you give up that to the government and its now public property.

True, although as @nfitz pointed out, there is a legal process for expropriation - but it’s likely hugely long and hugely legalistic and probably would err on the side of overcompensating CN for its troubles. So perhaps a non-starter.

I still wonder, though.... let’s say VIA gets funding for $XB to rebuild the Havelock line. Would CN not consider offering VIA a deal for $XB minus $500M.....better deal for VIA, and CN might know how to spend that money judiciously to meet VIA’s needs while keeping plenty for the shareholders? Perhaps CN has thought about it, and concluded that just isn’t profitable......as a shareholder I would sure be disappointed if they dismissed the idea without doing a little math to see if it’s viable.

- Paul
 
If the bank is doing a real study they are looking at all this. They are comparing what CN would want for accomodation or even a corridor swap.

I'll bet Havelock still comes out looking more attractive. A lot of the case for HFR rests on a single line combining Ottawa and Montreal traffic. Hard to do on Lakeshore. Also, electrification is difficult to impossible along Lakeshore. And grade crossings....I think it's far easier to get away with protected crossings on more of the Havelock route than Lakeshore, which would need more grade-separation.

A banker looking at this is also going to be looking for flexibility. "If this service is successful, can I spend more and increase my profit?" Might be a tougher sell on the Lakeshore. But it's easier to see how portion of Havelock could be upgraded to boost productivity and profit.
 

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