VIA Rail

[SamStar]

La Presse published an indirectly pertinent article to VIA HFR's project. It is mainly about the future REM, but discusses the need for the new Infrastructure bank.

https://translate.google.ca/transla...ntention-dinvestir-15-milliard.php&edit-text=


This confirms that we will not see any major infrastructure project financed through the Infrastructure Bank before it is officially created.
Despite the fact that there was no announcement of funding for the REM in the last federal budget, the government seems to be very interested and seems to be willing to commit $ 1.5 billion for the project.

I am sure the HFR announcement will come eventually. First, we need the infrastructure bank...

 

[steveintoronto]

La Presse published an indirectly pertinent article to VIA HFR's project. It is mainly about the future REM, but discusses the need for the new Infrastructure bank.

Excellent heads up Sam.

(OTTAWA) The Trudeau government maintains its strong desire to invest in the metropolitan power grid (REM), although it has remained relatively silent on the $ 6 billion project piloted by the Caisse de dépôt et placement in its Wednesday, and it is difficult to explain the virulent reactions of Quebec on this subject.

According to our information, the leaders of Philippe Couillard's government were informed at least 24 hours before the tabling of the federal budget of Finance Minister Bill Morneau that there would be little detail on Ottawa's intentions with respect to the EMN. At the same time, Quebec would have been assured that the federal government had the firm intention of participating in the financing of the project, preferably through the new Canada Infrastructure Bank, in order to optimize investments in project- Infrastructure in Quebec.

The Infrastructure Bank of Canada is not yet legally established, and no decision can be made as to its investment plans until the bill confirming its creation is passed in the House of Commons and in the House of Commons. Senate, it was argued. This bill is expected to be tabled by Minister Morneau by mid-April and the Bank should be formally launched by the end of 2017.[...]

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economi...ec-de-son-intention-dinvestir-15-milliard.php

I encourage readers to access the entire article. Also of interest is this:

Business
Coalition wants to stop the Caisse train

(06h52) A coalition of environmental groups and citizens, supported by a large trade union, will file a request for a "nullity "

["What we want is that the project be stopped, that all information be made public, for example with regard to the impact of the EMN on the tariffs of other transport companies, New public consultation takes place, "explained one of the applicants in this file, who wanted to wait for the application before giving his identity.]

"tariffs" is an imprecise translation of what must be 'right of passage'. Read: AMT and VIA

 

[steveintoronto]

Just up at the Globe...

Bill Morneau wants slow and steady approach to infrastructure funding
Jordan Press

Ottawa — The Canadian Press

Published Friday, Mar. 24, 2017 5:52PM EDT
[...]
In Quebec, the provincial government would like the federal government to give at least $1 billion to a planned electric rail network in Montreal that is being backed financially by the provincial pension investment fund.

The Quebec national assembly adopted a motion Thursday expressing the province’s “great disappointment” with the federal budget, in part because it provided no funding to the electric rail network.

Federal officials have been reviewing the project as a potential case for the soon-to-be-launched infrastructure bank, which would use federal dollars to leverage private investment for projects, such as public transit, that can provide a revenue stream to pay off private and public investment.

Federal sources say a business plan arrived just a few weeks ago and stressed that no decision has been made.

Nor can the federal government decide to fund part of the $6 billion project through the second phase of its infrastructure program because funding agreements have yet to be signed. Those negotiations haven’t yet started and could take a year to complete given the amount of money involved, approximately $82 billion, and the length of time, 11 years.

Speaking at a robotics lab near Montreal, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that Quebec would receive billions in the coming years to build needed projects.

“The fact is we understand very clearly it is not up to Ottawa to make the determinations of what a community needs and what is the best transit project for a given region,” Trudeau said.

“It’s up to the experts, the members of municipal councils, provinces. We’re there to be partners with the provinces and municipalities on the investments we need to grow the economy.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ch-to-infrastructure-funding/article34421297/

This is part of the "murky" (my word to Paul) nature of the Infrastructure Bank story so far. In all fairness to Morneau, as much as I'm ticked on other aspects of his Budget ("Innovation, blah, blah, blah") this does have to unfold meticulously, not least because aspects are still yet to gel, and the more Trump is hoisted on his own peni....whoops...petard, and inward investment into the US gets cold feet, Morneau has more latitude to making national monies invested more conducive to being leveraged. There's still a lot to be detailed yet on this.

As an aside to this, Quebec's reaction and that of the Caisse and others grabbing for favours puts them in a poor light, to say the least. VIA have been keeping a cool head so far...and that bodes well for investors who might wish to deal directly with VIA, it's not a foregone conclusion that the establishment of the Investment Bank is needed for VIA's proposal.

As another aside, the Caisse might be in over their heads with the REM project, and it's entirely possible that it might end-up being a model of how *not* to do things. We'll see, there's a lot more of this story to come...

Edit to Add: A quick Google News check shows a number of stories on REM, many on aspects of distress for the project, albeit that can be misleading, but here are the two latest that show, and clues to VIA's fortunes and where to tread carefully are indicated: (It may yet be VIA's good fortune that Caisse jumped to this project, instead of the HFR. Lessons to be learned from their mistakes)

Environmental group heads to court to stop REM project
Montreal Gazette-4 hours ago
Artist's rendition of part of the proposed REM network, a 67-kilometre electric, driverless train system linking Montreal's Gare Central to the West Island, ... An environmental group has gone to court to force the Caisse de dépôt ...
Electric train network faces first legal challenge
Globalnews.ca-1 hour ago

Electric train network faces first legal challenge
Globalnews.ca - ‎1 hour ago‎
A coalition of environmentalists and concerned citizens have launched the first legal challenge to the Caisse de Depot's proposed electric train network. Lawyer Ricardo Hrtschan filed for a declaratory judgement. If successful Quebec's pension fund ...

Opinion: Caisse's REM train isn't what West Island commuters need
Montreal Gazette-Mar 13, 2017
Artist's rendition of part of the proposed REM network, an electric, driverless train system linking Montreal's Gare Central to the West Island, ...
Bring on the West Island Light Rail
The Link-Mar 13, 2017
View all

 

[mdrejhon]

Every time I think Infrastructure Bank (like today), I remember to catch up on this thread. Good stuff.

I wonder if Infrastructure Bank should get its own thread (although VIA and Infrastructure Bank is heavily intertwined... though there are generic non-VIA-specific transportation elements of IB)

 

[steveintoronto]

I wonder if Infrastructure Bank should get its own thread (although VIA and Infrastructure Bank is heavily intertwined... though there are generic non-VIA-specific transportation elements of IB)

I thought about that a few times, only to realize it's premature. Once the Cdn Investment Bank (CIB) becomes more extant, it could carry a string of its own. To do so now would split the essential bond to HFR away from this thread. As long as we can continue to relate it back to VIA, it's best off residing here for now.

At some point, if all goes as projected, it could have massive affect on the Cdn economy. It may yet also be that VIA is able to launch HFR before CIB becomes reality. There is a danger, though, as REM is showing, both in terms of financing and facing the need for more funding (and expecting the taxpayer to bail them out) and in terms of shortcomings in their physical plan. D-S may actually be happy now, and happier yet that Caisse didn't jump on the HFR prospectus, it's too soon to tell, but not too soon to learn lessons.

What I will add to that is that The Missing Link is curious by omission in any news of late. HFR might be a better place for the CIB to 'find its mark' since VIA is already on record as procuring its own rolling stock, and the RoW, for the most part, will be private or VIA. The Missing Link is going to be roughly twice the investment, and not necessarily as risk underwritten by the taxpayer as HFR.

 

[crs1026]

There is a danger, though, as REM is showing, both in terms of financing and facing the need for more funding (and expecting the taxpayer to bail them out) and in terms of shortcomings in their physical plan. D-S may actually be happy now, and happier yet that Caisse didn't jump on the HFR prospectus, it's too soon to tell, but not too soon to learn lessons.

What I will add to that is that The Missing Link is curious by omission in any news of late.

The tactic used by the REM opponents is interesting although a bit time worn. If you don't like the outcome, challenge the process. I haven't been following REM, so I don't know if their public consultative process has been rigourous or not.

It's a lesson learned for the CIB, however. If the Bank is going to work, it has to protect the commercial interests of the projects it is financing. The projects are publicly funded, which implies a fairly high expectation of transparency, but they are also quasi-commerical. The Bank can't allow itself to be used as a lever for people to gain access to commercially sensitive information ...... a delicate balance perhaps.

I was doing some research on the old CN bypass, and found the attached clipping in the Toronto Star, 1959ish. The expectation of transparency has certainly risen over the years.

As to VIA laying low, I'm sure they don't want to draw attention to their not being in the budget.....so they will stay silent for now. There were press reports that some MP's had lobbied for HFR and VIA generally to be addressed in the budget. I would sure like to know the back story on how that went. For now, we just wait and hope.

- Paul

 

[steveintoronto]

Here's one of the references to REM not abiding by their originally presented business plan:

Opinion: Caisse's REM train isn't what West Island commuters need
[...]
Much is made of the REM’s advanced driverless technology. But because driverless trains cannot safely go through level crossings, this requires elevated or subterranean track and stations, greatly increasing the cost of such trains. This, combined with the Caisse’s decision to use the Deux-Montagnes line to get to the airport and West Island, requiring a complete redo of the Deux-Montagnes line and the purchase of land to get to the airport and West Island, has greatly and unnecessarily increased the cost of the REM project.

This cost, of $5.9 billion, has led the Caisse to say that it will need an annual government subsidy to cover its costs and enable it to make a commercial return on its investment. Unless the Quebec government covers this subsidy, the project seems likely to result in a significant increase in property taxes and/or transport fares, including for métro and bus, across the whole Montreal metropolitan area.

And what makes this financial burden worse is that the Caisse REM project will diminish the government’s revenues from the existing commuter train lines. In addition to diminishing the revenues from the Vaudreuil line, it would take over the Deux-Montagnes line, which has the greatest revenue. And the train from Mascouche would have to transfer to the REM Deux-Montagnes train to go through the Mount Royal tunnel, instead of now going directly downtown, likely diminishing the use of the Mascouche train.

But this greater financial burden could be avoided if instead the government improved the existing West Island and Deux-Montagnes lines. Then we could have the advantages claimed for the REM train, but with quicker service downtown, at lesser cost, and with less damage to existing commuter lines.[...]

http://montrealgazette.com/opinion/opinion-caisses-rem-train-isnt-what-west-island-commuters-need

The criticism REM is now facing is warranted in many cases. They're turning to the taxpayer to bail out their plan which wasn't fully researched and underwritten initially, not to mention their by-passing full environmental assessments, the basis of which is now an inquiry.

It's certainly not unfair for any project, no matter private or public, to have to follow the law. And that's beside deciding that the Deux Montagnes Tunnel would have to become theirs, and theirs only, forcing ATM to disuse it, and block VIA from also using it for a proposed route to Quebec City.

VIA were mentioned and further funded in the most recent budget, in addition to the amount in the prior budget, it's HFR and the framework for a PFI or PPP that wasn't, and is forthcoming in "April".

The Bank can't allow itself to be used as a lever for people to gain access to commercially sensitive information ...... a delicate balance perhaps.

That would have to be in each individual agreement, not in any general framework of the Bank itself. If public money is involved, even in a limited company capacity, and as a shareholder, and as the one underwriting the risk so the project can be financed as the most optimal interest rates, then it's only logical that the taxpayers' interests are protected, as well the private interests. That's covered under existing commercial law.

As an example, Toronto Hydro is the news today on exactly that, and Toronto Hydro is completely owned by the Toronto taxpayers:

lToronto Hydro and the power of secrecy

A Star request for information about Toronto Hydro's use of privatization consultants has turned into a 14-month battle. Part of a Star Campaign for Transparency.

Here is one of the major points of contention with the flawed environmental assessment of REM:

Environmental review of light-rail project 'ignores facts and distorts reality,' Caisse says

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/lrt-montreal-fail-green-light-bape-1.3947775

Quebec pension fund issues scathing statement after BAPE finds problems with proposal
CBC News Posted: Jan 23, 2017 8:54 AM ET Last Updated: Jan 23, 2017 8:54 AM ET

Backers of Montreal's planned light-rail project are fighting back after Quebec's environmental review agency raised a number of concerns about the proposal.

In a report released Friday, the environmental agency (BAPE) said the documentation for the planned rail network is incomplete, and "several essential elements of the project were not subject to public debate and unable to be analyzed."

• Read about the environmental review here

In response, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which is behind the project, issued a lengthy statement this morning accusing the BAPE of making "several omissions and errors" in its assessment of the project.

Here are some of the key points in the statement:[...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/lrt-montreal-fail-green-light-bape-1.3947775

Here's the background on the Quebec Gov't's very shady 'tag team' approach. The elephant in the corridor is Bombardier, and the Caisse' substantial share of BBD Rail Division, and the sole supplier of the REM. Quebec is also invested in BBD. Just a little cozy...

[...]
Will commuters leave cars at home?
It also questions the level of service the LRT would be able to offer — and whether it would actually be able to meet a key goal of getting more people to switch to public transit.

"Based on our forecasts, barely 10 per cent of light rail network ridership would come from drivers who would leave their cars behind, and most of those would take their cars to the station parking lots."

• Quebec to fast-track light rail project's environmental review

Another concern the BAPE had was the project's impact on the environment. It said it was impossible to evaluate because a complete portrait of the natural habitats that would be affected along the planned route is missing.

Financial questions remain
The agency is also calling on the provincial government to release certain financial documents and said more information is needed to understand how the project will be financed.

Quebec's pension fund, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, is funding the project and has committed $3 billion to building the 67-kilometre light-rail transit system (LRT). The balance, about $2.9 billion, is expected to come from the federal and provincial governments.
[...]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/lrt-montreal-fail-green-light-bape-1.3945019

This is certainly not the "process" for CIB or HFR to emulate.

 

[kEiThZ]

Every time I think Infrastructure Bank (like today), I remember to catch up on this thread. Good stuff.

I wonder if Infrastructure Bank should get its own thread (although VIA and Infrastructure Bank is heavily intertwined... though there are generic non-VIA-specific transportation elements of IB)

I am starting to even doubt the infrabank-VIA tie up. They've had a year and a half since getting elected and have made no progress on the bank? I find that hard to believe.

I think they got sideswiped by Trump. And are now clueless about what to do. They've plunged the country in to deficits not seen since the 1990s on social programs. If Trump succeeds with massive tax cuts in the US, they'll have to match that in Canada. There goes all government spending after that on everything but social spending after that.

I'm already starting to have buyer's remorse with this government.

 

[Aylmer]

They've plunged the country in to deficits not seen since the 1990s on social programs.

Well, no. The $29B deficit is a deficit not seen since 2010 ($33.4B) or 2009 ($55.6B). Let's not lose our heads.

 

[crs1026]

I am starting to even doubt the infrabank-VIA tie up. They've had a year and a half since getting elected and have made no progress on the bank? I find that hard to believe.

I think they got sideswiped by Trump. And are now clueless about what to do. They've plunged the country in to deficits not seen since the 1990s on social programs. If Trump succeeds with massive tax cuts in the US, they'll have to match that in Canada. There goes all government spending after that on everything but social spending after that.

I'm already starting to have buyer's remorse with this government.

My suspicions about the bank are as dark as yours, but I don't blame the US. I don't think Canadians will want to go *there*.

To me it's more like that Python sketch where Arthur is sent in search of a shrubbery. He diligently obliges, only to be told there is one more thing....cut down the forest. D-S was invited to take the helm with lots of promises that he could put together a business plan.... except no one told him the government wouldn't back it.

I fear that funding via the Bank was a passive aggressive way of saying "No way we are putting this in the country's budget". So he puts together his business plan, except the Bank isn't ready, and may never be. Another passive aggressive way of not having to say "look, this just isn't on our agenda". If there ever is a Bank, there will be another thing D-S is asked to do first.

This government has realised that stimulus spending on infrastructure isn't all it cracked up to be. The projects aren't shovel ready (because they require years of design). Which puts the hiring (let alone the ribbon-cutting) too far out to achieve the desired political ends. And the skilled trades aren't available anyways, and it looks like there may have to be foreign workers recruited. Not a recipe for success. And further meanwhile, it turns out that the private sector is building in higher contingencies and demanding a higher return for execution because government has created expectations that "there will be no overspend or delays, because the private sector is doing the work" (that phrase IMHO is almost as droll as "cheque is in the mail".

I am *very* worried about the equipment order going MIA. When a Canadian government doesn't even want to award a contract to Bombardier.......

- Paul

 

[dowlingm]

I wonder if New Jersey Transit is quietly rooting for the success of the Caisse grabbing the DM tunnel - a bunch of ALP45s and NJT spec MLVs suddenly hit the market at depreciated prices.

 

[steveintoronto]

I wonder if New Jersey Transit is quietly rooting for the success of the Caisse grabbing the DM tunnel - a bunch of ALP45s and NJT spec MLVs suddenly hit the market at depreciated prices.

Yeah, although they might have to adjust the HEP voltage if that becomes the case, not too sure if the AMT ALPs are Cdn specs for HEP or it's adjustable. In the event, it appears the REM proposal is in trouble. There's also the question of what happens to the BBD MR-90 EMUs doing the Deux Montagnes run, which were due to be replaced but the order abruptly cancelled.

There's quite a degree of intrigue on it all:

AMT quietly cancels $103-million bid from Bombardier for double-decker train cars
Jason Magder, Montreal Gazette
More from Jason Magder, Montreal Gazette
Published on: May 17, 2016 |

The Agence métropolitaine de transport says it’s baffled as to why the company that normally makes its trains can’t outfit them with all their normal features.

The AMT cancelled a $103-million call for tenders for 24 double-decker train cars, for which Bombardier Transportation was the only bidder. The cancellation could mean delays getting much-anticipated double-decker trains on the overcrowded Deux-Montagnes line.

“The bid was considered not to have conformed to the call for tenders,” AMT spokesperson Fanie St-Pierre said. “So we cancelled the tender process. We’ll see now if what we have asked can be provided by other companies aside from Bombardier.”

St-Pierre admitted it’s somewhat strange that Bombardier said in its bid it cannot furnish several items that are standard on AMT trains: screens announcing the next stop, an intercom and a passenger-detection system. She pointed out that Bombardier has built all the agency’s cars, and most of its locomotives to date, and never had a problem providing those features up to now.

Bombardier also said it is not able to build the trains within the 24-month period stipulated in the contract, saying it needs 36 months to build the cars, according to St-Pierre.

“We’re trying to understand why Bombardier submitted this offer like this,” St-Pierre said.

A spokesperson for Bombardier did not return calls from the Montreal Gazetteon Tuesday.

The AMT went to tender last December on the double-decker cars to be used on the Candiac, Vaudreuil-Hudson and St-Jérôme lines. The new cars would allow the AMT to move the old cars to the agency’s busiest Deux-Montagnes Line, bringing double-deckers to that line for the first time. The AMT plans to take the MR-90 cars currently used on that line out of circulation for several months so they can be recommissioned.

St-Pierre said now the agency has to decide if it will issue a new call for tenders, and if so, whether to alter the provision that requires 25 per cent of the trains to be made in Canada.

“We know there are international companies that picked up the documents (in December when the call for tenders was issued),” St-Pierre said.

She added it’s possible Bombardier can still win a contract to provide the trains if its bid conforms to a new call for tenders. [...]

http://montrealgazette.com/business...s-103-million-bid-from-bombardier-report-says

There's a lot more to that story than being published....yet.

 

[steveintoronto]

My suspicions about the bank are as dark as yours, but I don't blame the US. I don't think Canadians will want to go *there*.

It's not a case of "blame" but one of knowing 'which way the wind is blowing'...and fortunately most of the wind from Trump is coming out his arse.

Here's what's not being discussed, and may even trump Trump...and it is getting close to Rejohn's wondering if it's time to start a Canada Investment Bank string, because this is getting a bit too political/economic for this string. Just up on the web, literally hours old: (And this is a Russian propaganda slanted site, so mollify the messages accordingly)

Mainland China intends to buy Canadian companies and bring the Chinese workers to Canada to work on their projects in that country as part of the negotiated free trade deal, whilst most projects are expected to be funded via the Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
17:16 26.03.2017(updated 17:34 26.03.2017) Get short URL
2103662

Kristian Rouz — After Canada joined the mainland China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on Thursday, the Chinese government in Beijing stated they require unlimited access to the Canadian economy, including the strategically-important sectors. Chinese government-controlled enterprises also seek to import their own workers into Canada to work on their projects in the North American nation.

The expansion of the AIIB followed the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) multilateral free trade agreement which the administration of the US President Donald Trump saw as harmful to US economic interests. After the failure of Washington's effort to discourage its allies, including Canada, from joining the AIIB, the economic and political influence of mainland China is poised to increase filling the vacuum, as evidenced by the current Canadian situation.

The Chinese ambassador to Canada, Lu Shaye, said that Beijing is seeking mergers and acquisitions of Canadian companies, having also warned that human rights rhetoric should not become a "bargaining chip" in the process of Chinese expansion into the Canadian economy. [...]

https://sputniknews.com/business/201703261051978783-china-canada-free-trade-talks/

Article, although Russian tinted and tainted, is well-researched and extensive.

I don't think the Cdn public is ready to digest this, and it's already a lot more complicated than it looks. Bombardier are wing deep in this already (literally, major sections of BBD jets are made in China)

Bombardier - China
cn.bombardier.com/about_bombardier_in_country.html
Bombardier's longstanding relationship with China began more than 50 years ago and continues to strengthen today through investments in manufacturing, ...
Bombardier's joint venture in China wins US$381M high-speed train ...
business.financialpost.com/.../bombardiers-joint-venture-in-china-wins-us381m-high-...
Sep 2, 2015 - Bombardier Inc.'s Chinese joint venture has won a contract to supply 15 ... They will be manufactured at BST's factory in Qingdao. Bombardier ...
[...]

Is it any surprise that the major announcements on the Investment Bank are pushed back to April? Remember how this nation reacted when NAFTA was first touted? The Libs flat out swore against it. Lots more on this later...

This government has realised that stimulus spending on infrastructure isn't all it cracked up to be

Hardly...it's the saviour of many nations at this point in time, and has been in the past and in the future. The nation just isn't ready for the inevitable reactionary upheaval when the facts necessary to make it happen are announced.

A reminder:

China's oil sands woes risk becoming another irritant on Trudeau's ...
www.bnn.ca/china-s-oil-sands-woes-risk-becoming-another-irritant-on-trudeau-s-offi...
Aug 26, 2016 - Human rights issues and Chinese backlash to the foreign homebuyer tax in Vancouver may be dominating discussions ahead of Prime Minister ...
Inside China's Failed $15 Billion Canadian Oil Sands Investment ...
oilprice.com › Energy › Crude Oil
Jul 15, 2016 - China’s ambitious entry into the Canadian oil-sands is not only turning out to be ill-timed, it is turning out to be grossly mismanaged, raising questions about the merit behind China’s $35 billion in investments in Canada’s energy sector between 2009 and 2013.
Liberal government reviewing ban on Chinese oilsands ownership ...
calgaryherald.com › News › Politics
Dec 1, 2016 - As the federal Liberal government moves to open Asian markets for Canadian energy through pipeline approvals, it is also reviewing ...
[...]

Alberta and the Yee-Haw Crowd would eat dog-meat if it would attract the Chinese to come back. Canada is broke...grossly mismanaged. We either trade or die. And the Chinese have the largest Sovereign Fund in the world. Pardon me, second largest, as the Norwegians...remember "oil money?" are the largest:
Largest sovereign wealth funds
Country Fund
Norway GPF Government Pension Fund - Global
China CIC China Investment Corporation
United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi ADIA Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
Kuwait KIA Kuwait Investment Authority
[...]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund

It's far from the only pool of investment capital, but highly indicative of Canada's need to get sensible...btw: The CPP Fund does well by international standards. It's just unfortunate that they ignore their own nation when it comes to investment. No further comment at this time on that...

 

[TOareaFan]

Well, no. The $29B deficit is a deficit not seen since 2010 ($33.4B) or 2009 ($55.6B). Let's not lose our heads.

All that graph shows is what some here are saying.....deficits are neither inherently good or evil......context matters.

After several years of surpluses and debt reduction, the Treasury was in better shape than it had been in most people's lives.....and faced with a global recession, the government of the day was able to run very large, temporary, deficits that enabled us to weather the recession better than most (all?) of our peers. Once the stimulus had done it's job, we reversed course and moved to wards re-balacing. We used deficits well.

It is not clear that this current round of deficit spending is, either, necessary or temporary. The most troubling aspect (IMO) is that minister of finance is unable to project when he expects to, once again, balance the budget.

 

[crs1026]

It is not clear that this current round of deficit spending is, either, necessary or temporary. The most troubling aspect (IMO) is that minister of finance is unable to project when he expects to, once again, balance the budget.

It does feel that since 2008 we have been blowing on the fire, and the fire hasn't been catching.

I don't agree that our government is mimicing the US, nor is it likely to do so. The US is a decade away from taking any other country to task for running a deficit. And imagine our PM sitting down at the White House and proudly describing a "gender-based budget". Our government is not afraid to brand Canada as progressive, they are simply treading lightly in areas where the discussion will likely go in the near future and where there may be hot buttons.

I am hoping that the VIA equipment order is caught up in this. If Canada sole-sourced this order to Bombardier ahead of the NAFTA talks, we would be tacitly endorsing trade barriers. Conversely, if we tender it now as a free-trade competition, we waste a potential bargaining chip and case study for how cross border trade should operate. So maybe VIA has to wait for that discussion to play out. How's that for optimisim in the face of all available fact?

- Paul