Just to put things into perspective:Toronto is the largest metropolitan center in Canada (
5.9 million in 2016) and Montreal the second-largest (4.1 million), whereas Berlin is the largest city in (and capital of) Germany (
3.5 million in 2015) and Munich is its third-largest city (1.5 million).
When measuring a straight line (
euclidean distance - or "as the crow flies"), Toronto's Union Station and Montreal's Gare Centrale are 504.5 km apart, whereas the respective main stations (Hauptbahnhof in German) of Berlin and Munich are 504.2 km apart.
In 1977, when VIA took over the passenger rail services of CN and CP, the fastest scheduled train between Toronto and Montreal was 4:30h, whereas between Berlin and Munich it was ... *drumroll* ...
8:45h (yes, almost twice as much!).
In 1989, when the Berlin wall fell, it was still 4:30h between Toronto and Montreal, but even
9:43h (i.e. more than twice as much!) between Berlin and Munich.
In 1992, when the collapsed GDR had been absorbed by the Federal Republic of Germany, the fastest travel time between Toronto and Montreal had fallen to 3:59h and (thanks to some urgent repairs on the dramatically under-maintained rail network in the former GDR) to
8:47h between Berlin and Munich.
In 2006, the fastest travel time between Toronto and Montreal increased to 4:15h, whereas it decreased to
5:49h between Berlin and Munich (thanks to the opening of the
North-South mainline with its tunnel underneath Berlin - thus avoiding the detour via Berlin-Schönefeld Airport - and of various High Speed Lines just in time for the FIFA World Cup 2006, which upgraded speeds on 77.4 km to 300 km/h and on another 194.4 km to 200 km/h).
Finally, in December 2017, the fastest travel time between Toronto and Montreal increased further to 4:49h and was overtaken (for the first time!) by Berlin-Munich, which decreased to
3:58h, thanks to the opening of the final (but most crucial) piece of the Berlin-Nuremberg HSR axis: the 107 km long
HSL Erfurt-Ebensfeld.
This means that Germany had to first invest a total of $22.7 billion in 2021 dollars (
€3.6 billion by 2006 for Nuremberg-Munich and
€10 billion by 2017 for Berlin-Nuremberg) to upgrade 73% of the route to at least 200 km/h and 40% even to 300 km/h, until they finally beat (by only a heartbeat!) what Toronto-Montreal had achieved for a few days during the ill-fated first passenger service trials of the Turbo Train in 1968/69 and then in regular revenue service with the LRC trains between October 1992 and May 1999 and again between May 2000 and May 2005.
So, why did Germany have to invest so much money to match the travel time which Canada achieved (over virtually the same - euclidean - distance!) almost exactly 50 years before? It's because the Kingston Subdivision is so incredibly direct: 539 km length between two points 504.5 km apart equals a detour of just 7% compared to the straight line, whereas the fastest route between Berlin and Munich (via Halle-Erfurt-Nuremberg-Ingolstadt) is still 622.0 km long, which equals a detour of 23% (compared to the straight line of 504.2 km) and is in fact only 11 km shorter than the 633 km which #51 covers between Montreal and Toronto as the only remaining M-O-T train:
Compiled from: timetable data obtained from
official VIA schedules and the
Fernbahn.de timetable database, as well as infrastructure data obtained from
DB Netze.
Notes: above break down of speed limits refers to the design speed of the respective segments (a bit like Canada's track classes impose certain speed limits), while ignoring any more local speed limits (e.g. for tight curves). Also, the 80.8 km of 200 km/h infrastructure shown for the years 1977-2005 opened between Donauwörth, Augsburg and Munich between 1965 and 1977; however, equipment capable of reaching at least 200 km/h rather than just 140-160 km/h only seems to have been used from 1994 onwards. Finally, the fastest travel time has been found between
München Hauptbahnhof and either
Berlin Zoologischer Garten (for years 1977-1991 and 1993),
Berlin Ostbahnhof (for years 1992 and 1994-2005, confusingly called "Hauptbahnhof" between 1987 and 1998) and the new
Berlin Hauptbahnhof (for all years since its opening in 2006).
***
Why do I write all of this? Because the tragic of Canada's passenger rail sector is that whereas Germany continuously improved the travel time between Berlin and Munich (less than 9 hours by 1992, less than 8 by 1994, 7 by 2000, 6 by 2006 and less than 4 by 2018), we are paralyzed in this country, because at some point, the track was cleared from all other passenger and freight trains, so that one measly train per day (and direction) could achieve the travel time of 3:59h (or at least on paper, as more than the absolute minimum in track switches would make this travel time infeasible).
Therefore, no, the biggest liability of HFR (or any attempt to fix the Corridor at a price tag which doesn't instantly kill the project) is not the targeted travel time between Toronto and Montreal (even today's 4:49h is almost an hour faster than what was ever achieved between Berlin and Munich before the 108 km long and 300 km/h fast HSL Erfurt-Ebensfeld opened in December 2017), it's the historical coincidence that that distance has at some point been covered at just under 4 hours.
In other words: we can't have faster train service now because we once had even faster train service (even if it was just one train per day). If HFR fails and we'll still have just a pathetic 6 trains per day between this country's two largest cities in 10 and 15 years' time, then it will be mostly because of that 3:59h. I'm afraid that we will never achieve a service standard which is remotely comparable with what similar corridors in Europe receive, unless we stop compulsively talking about that stupid figure. It doesn't have the slightest effect on the benefits which any improvement to the current passenger rail services would bring...