Problem is, you're talking about TODAY and not looking at the larger planning context.
There already new secondary plans for both sides of Yonge and there is plenty of density, even without redeveloping historical Thornhill (which, really, is like 4 blocks and a valley).
Fact is, the province has put in to place legislation that REQUIRES Richmond Hill and Markham to intensify at Yonge/7. Fact is, those plans are now in place and entirely contingent on subway and all-day GO and the 407 Transitway. Every one of those you don't build, you knock down the density and population numbers. Go for LRT or BRT, you do the same.
If that happens, they don't hit the targets.
They don't hit the targets, you can count on more people living out in Greenbelt land and they'll buy more SUVs or take whatever mediocre, overtaxed system GO has OR they'll keep driving down or riding buses to Finch. You'll be on a more-crowded subway or totally gridlocked streets.
You are not solving any problems by building to Steeles, unless you count Toronto taxpayer attitudes as a problem to be solved. If you think Toronto's economic success isn't related to people being able to get to/from the 905 efficiently, you're mistaken there too.
The entire region is decades behind on transit planning and you want to cut if off at Steeles - a project with a complete EA and as much planning rationale as any transit project in The Big Move - because of what? Just build the damned thing already. Cutting transit lines too short has been Toronto's modus operandi for way too long. It's ironic you cite Sheppard as a white elephant while also advocating for the neutering of the Yonge extension
Let's build for and with the future for a change, shall we?
I never look at today event when looking at urban and transit planing, but 25, 50 and 100 year out look.
On my 2006 GTA Master Transit Plan, I have 4 subway lines going into York Region to Major Mack, as well an east-west line.
Those lines will not happen until 2050 except the Spadina Line at the earliest. The one that may happen before then is the DRL up to Hwy 7.
Regardless if the DRL is built to Hwy 7 or not, a "NEW" Yonge line will have to be built, as the existing line is never going to carry the new riders in Toronto, let alone York. This is after the DRL is built, since those lost riders will be replace by new development on Yonge St alone, plus more. There are about 55 projects underway or plan for Yonge today and that only a start from Queen St to Steeles. The best TTC can hope for Yonge is 33,000 riders in one direction from a single location at peak time based on the new TR trains. If you got 40,000, where do you place the other 7,000??
Any new line going north of Steeles has to be build for double deck trains that will run on the rail corridor as well. It will be more an express lines with very few stops to the Queens Quay.
What is going on here as well with GO Transit, is allowing growth to leap frog the Greenbelt for low density development and not deal with the root of the problem and that is cars and poor land use.
I have only support the "Yonge Line Extension" as far as Steeles from day one, since it should had happen when the line was built in the first place.
If you look at the buses using Yonge St today, only York Region Route 5, 99 and Blue carry riders on Yonge St today and 5 is pushing it. I don't count Pink as its a joke route with very poor ridership in the first place and will disappear in a few years.
All the other YRT and TTC routes use Steeles to get to the Yonge line and will have no effect on ridership for the Yonge Line north of Steeles. Having 3,000-8,000 riders going north of Steeles on a subway is a waste of resources and gold plated service.
Based on current planning trend for York, going to take decades to bring any real development along Yonge and to the side of it. Both Bathurst and Bayview have more development than Yonge in York.
It takes money to built transit and that the big problem, as the power to be don't understand it not $50 billion to do the "BIG MOVE", nor the $90 that was cut to $50, but $150 Billion and growing. GO Transit has been the hog on most of this money at this time with York getting the next slice. Now Toronto has it act together, it will come the next hog, but long over due.
TTC is looking at $50 Billion alone to built the transit system it needs yesterday.
With the lack of funding, you have to get the biggest bang for the buck and fund projects that will have the highest ridership return for that buck.
Yonge is not that one, considering York is banking on it to get them out of the $2 billion debit by having development to cover it.
In the early Metrolinx stakeholders meetings in York, I was a stakeholder to the point I meet a number of developers/landowner along Yonge who saw 25% of the population driving regardless the cost of fuel and had no real interested in transit riders living in their developments. They were prepared to sit on land/buildings until there was a real strong financial return market to make a good profit even if it took years or decades.
When I look at the Yonge Line vs Mississauga LRT and Hamilton LRT, the LRT projects will cost the same as the Yonge Line, but will carry 2-3 times more riders than Yonge, even at 2040.
The GTA is one big urban sprawl and going to take 50-100 years to fix that problem to be able to run transit lines at a low cost ratio than today.
York has a number of routes today that cost over $10 per rider to use it and riders still pay the standard fare. I know for a fact that Mississauga has a fair number of routes like York and they are being kill off year by year since 40% of them will see no growth in them now or down the road due to low density. This applies to all other areas in the GTA.
If you want transit, then $.15 has to be added to the pumps that goes into the transit fund only along with fee on all parking spaces. As you add these taxes, the return will start to fall overtime as landowners start to reduces the parking spots and people will drive less than they do today. Over the past few years, the USA has seen billion of mile reduction in traveling which save millions of barrel of oil and hit the oil company bottom line.
If the powers to be had any backbone and the guts in the first place, they would start downsizing parking standards for all development and look at ways to beef up transit. At the same time, better land use and density needs to increase as well freezing land use and development.
As for Sheppard, I do have a Sheppard subway on my master plan going from Pickering to Sq One by the way of the airport, but way down the road in phases.
