drum118
Superstar
We will certainly see major, extremely dense developments.
To unlock demand, however, we will need to see a non-dumb fare system. Expecting people will pony up three bucks to ride between one and two kilometres does not meet that requirement. The densest part of the Blue route is a part in which almost noone is interested in taking it, because it's economically silly. Those are, ironically, the parts also slated for the most immediate densification, and which have the most potential for it -- the majority of the land between Steeles and Clark is basically sitting waiting for developers.
(Even under those circumstances, however, the Viva ridership would remain a poor index for likely Yonge extension ridership.)
Again, the relevance of all this is somewhat mysterious. However, for kicks, the average 2007 daily boardings for the YRT routes which run between Finch subway and points north of 7 (except for the GO 3 bus, which I did not bother trying to scare up):
Brampton-YRT 77: 2862
GO 3: ?
YRT 002 Milliken: 2317
YRT 005 Clark: 1794
YRT 023 Thornhill Woods: 759
YRT 088/88E Bathurst: 2431
YRT 091/91A Bayview South: 3994
YRT 099 Yonge South: 3818
YRT 300 Business Express: 306
YRT 301 Markham Express: 423
YRT 302 Unionville Express: 197
YRT 303 Cornell Express: 119
YRT 340 Bayview Express: 94
YRT VIVA Blue: 16678
YRT VIVA Pink: 2451
Total: 38,243
As indicated above, there are very few good reasons to think that the above numbers represent demand under a non-dumb fare scheme with a bus-to-subway transfer, never mind a one-shot subway ride. But there they are. (Obviously, it does not take into account transit that connects at Yonge-7 but not at Finch -- the new GO airport bus, the VIVA and GO Hwy 7 bus routes, and the RH GO train.)
Come on, trying to use those numbers to justify the Yonge extension north of Steeles is pulling numbers out of the air. The ridership is for the WHOLE route, not on Yonge section now.
You better check the 2008 numbers as they are lower than 2007.
The GO Airport is 75-90% empty to the point I have been the only rider on it from/to Sq One.
Model split is 7% for transit in York. If you build a development of 25,000 units, you will get 60,000 resident. 7% of 60,000 is only 4,200 new riders. You need a split of 30% to get 18,000 riders and not all will be using peak time service.