Toronto The One | 308.6m | 85s | Tridel | Foster + Partners

This feels much more massive already in person than the photos imply. Taken yesterday:

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rbt said:
The retail component, which is ~1/3rd of the value of the entire project, will be open and paying rent within a year.

That will take a big bite out of any financing issues. Monthly revenue collected (or out-right sale of the retail space) will more than offset interest on loans.
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I'd love to see evidence for that on paper. I find it highly unlikley the retail across 5 floors (?) will pay 1/3 of the land acquisition and construction cost or the entire cost to finance. The land and construction cost on this project will be in the hundreds of millions and financing costs approaching $50-100 million if not more (mainly because it's taking so long). No retail in North America is worth that. I don't mean to pick another fight in this forum but if you have papers on this I'd love to get info, even for personal reference to show people would be great.
 
AdamS said:
No doubt this is taking longer than typical but to assume something dodgy or shady is going on is just speculation.

The fact remains that any unsold units are also rising in value tremendously. If we are making random assumptions, then lets say the developer held onto at least 10-15% of the units as that is common in condo development. So in a way he also benefits from a delayed process/rising values.
As real estate values rise you can always refinance loans or convert some debt to equity which he has already done via Firm Capital.
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Total possible.
thaivic said:
Monde by Great Gulf, acquisition of property 2010 to substantial completion end 2018
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So I took a look at Monde. It looks like execavation/shoring began Jan. 2016 and completion was some time around Jan 2019? So three years? Doesn't that fit with in my 4-4.5 years I estimate for real estate? Land acquisition obviously happened much earlier. I don't really understand this part of the industry and how it works itself out in the finances. Too dissimilar to my job. I suspect the cost of the land works itself out because prices in TO are rising so fast that the appreciating value of the future condo units balances out the cost of capital on the land to a large degree. Developers are probably starting to expect this to a degree, same way preconstruction condoes sell at a ~25% premium to existing units. Everyone just expects things to keep going up and now its built into the plan? Of course one day it won't (Kaboom emoji here). Another factor is that land often sells for less than people think. I have a friend who's family owns many acres on the edge of suburbia (obviously very different) but they can't get anywhere near what you think it would be worth, they've tried. If you look at other land sales at the edge of suburbia (publically available on MLS or Housesigma) it's amazing for how little the land sells for compared to the houses that will be on it one day.
 
Blitz901 said:
I'd love to see evidence for that on paper. I find it highly unlikley the retail across 5 floors (?) will pay 1/3 of the land acquisition and construction cost or the entire cost to finance. The land and construction cost on this project will be in the hundreds of millions and financing costs approaching $50-100 million if not more (mainly because it's taking so long). No retail in North America is worth that. I don't mean to pick another fight in this forum but if you have papers on this I'd love to get info, even for personal reference to show people would be great.
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So you are asking a member to produce papers that are likely only privy to Mizrahi and whatever retail entity that's interested in that prime space? I think there's better ways of asking for citation that doesn't require posters to break the law.
 
Blitz901 said:
I'd love to see evidence for that on paper. I find it highly unlikley the retail across 5 floors (?) will pay 1/3 of the land acquisition and construction cost or the entire cost to finance. The land and construction cost on this project will be in the hundreds of millions and financing costs approaching $50-100 million if not more (mainly because it's taking so long). No retail in North America is worth that. I don't mean to pick another fight in this forum but if you have papers on this I'd love to get info, even for personal reference to show people would be great.
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I expect you'll get that evidence (or evidence against) before 2030 when the retail space gets sold to a listed REIT who is required to publish major purchases.

I think we agree that the time and money invested into designing and constructing column-free retail was not low (see comparative 1 Yonge progress for an example of that cost); so either the retailer is paying a substantial premium or Mizrahi is taking a huge hit because those efforts don't help sell the condos.
 
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The One's official project website has been completely redesigned: https://onebloorwest.com
It doesn't appear like there are any new renderings, but there is this cool stacking diagram.
Do note that the 85-storey version is referenced throughout the website and renderings still appear to be inconsistent with different design iterations being shown simultaneously.

Screen Shot 2021-12-20 at 2.48.37 PM.png
 
still seems to be crawling.

This is the last "non-typical" floor in that it's the residential lobby level with roughly 18' slab to slab, so hopefully that's why it's still taking a while. After this it's typical hotel levels for 9 floors.

I am concerned that the large amount of structural cross-bracing required on each level is going to make this whole project relatively slow all the way up, but we'll see..
 
innsertnamehere said:
still seems to be crawling.

This is the last "non-typical" floor in that it's the residential lobby level with roughly 18' slab to slab, so hopefully that's why it's still taking a while. After this it's typical hotel levels for 9 floors.

I am concerned that the large amount of structural cross-bracing required on each level is going to make this whole project relatively slow all the way up, but we'll see..
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This

This is moving too slowly.
 
rbt said:
I expect you'll get that evidence (or evidence against) before 2030 when the retail space gets sold to a listed REIT who is required to publish major purchases.

I think we agree that the time and money invested into designing and constructing column-free retail was not low (see comparative 1 Yonge progress for an example of that cost); so either the retailer is paying a substantial premium or Mizrahi is taking a huge hit because those efforts don't help sell the condos.
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I assume the reduced column design also adds value to the residential levels too and isn't entirely for/benefiting the retail?

2030?! If I remember this conversation in 2030 still I'll contemplate applying to Jeopardy with a memory like that. haha. I would think they'd purcahse before then, no?
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
This

This is moving too slowly.
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Like watching moss grow on a tombstone. Non?

...interesting thing here is that after this floor, they've got one more to go before they encase all the metal works, Kit Kat/sad koala super columns and all in concrete. The very early New Year will likely bring in what happens after that. 😼
 
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