That's again assuming a $400 million cost - which is $200,000 a space. That's far and above my understanding of what a typical parking space costs.
Looking at the plans for the garage, there is about 967,000sf of space below grade for the parking garage once you exclude the below-grade spaces for the Science Centre.. which means at $195/sf as per the Altus cost guide for below grade parking.. that's $190 million in capital costs for the garage component of the project. That's about $90k a space - still high from my understanding, but closer to realistic. And much closer to being able to be financed on parking revenues.
Again - I'm not claiming that the parking is going completely unsubsidized here, just that it's not a $400 million subsidy. The reality is that we don't know the numbers.
To take this in chunks:
A 400M (potential) cash out lay is proposed.
Assuming the government borrows that money (since it reports being in deficit we must assume that this would be contributing to same), we have to look at the government's borrowing cost on that investment.
Currently, the government of Ontario is borrowing money at 4.6%. If you amortize the repayment over 25 years, this adds 67% to your all-in cost.
ie. 1M borrowed would see 1.67M repaid over 25 years.
Even at 190M in direct capital cost you'd be looking at ~ 317M in total cost. One must then add annual operating costs such as maintence, staff, payment fees to credit cards, property tax, if applicable etc.
There is no way that anything less than 400M in gross revenue over that period would achieve a break-even position.
****
Now lets add, I find it highly improbably that the parking will be full every single day of the year, that would be a both a phenomenal business achievement but also very dysfunctional as it would mean customers being turned away every day.
If $15M in gross revenue were optimal as suggested above, I would think a reasonable assumption would be 70% occupancy when factored over 365 days.
That would suggest annual gross revenue of 10.5M On a constant dollar basis, that wouldn't repay the parking for 38 years. (using the 400M number)
As for why the province is building it and not Therme.. Therme is not the only tenant at Ontario Place that will be using the garage. Parking users will be using it to go to Live Nation, to the park spaces, to the Science Centre, to the Ex, to BMO Field, to etc.. It's very much a multi-use facility which will be used to service a wide variety of uses. It makes sense for the province, and not Therme, to build it, provided there are appropriate kick-backs in the lease to ensure that the province isn't left holding the bag.
I confess to disliking Live Nation's plans as well....... but I digress.
There appears to be sufficient parking on site to meet the needs of all existing users and the historic demand of Ontario Place which should not reasonably be greater than the parklands.
Only 'new tenants' can justify the investment, and you're limited then to Therme and the OSC.
The storey here is to be more transparent on costs. A whole lot of real ugly, misleading numbers are being thrown around here and in the media because the province refuses to release even high level details on the financial terms of the deal.
On this we can definitely agree.