For the first time since I joined UT nearly 10 years ago, I have skin directly in this game.
I live in Thorncliffe and I will probably die here in 20-40 years.
Would someone please give me a reality check and tell me if I will ever see this built? [emphasis added]
The recent Ontario Line update on the Metrolinx website shows a
timeline. There is also a procurement
timeline on Infrastructure Ontario's website. Ford wants the federal government to contribute 40% of the cost of the four priority projects (the OL is one of them) although he said before covid-19 he would fund it himself if he didn't receive money from them. There was also recently this article:
The federal government has yet to respond to a letter sent by Ontario officials in May reiterating the province’s request for a formal funding commitment to four Toronto transit extension projects, the provincial transportation minister’s office says. The four projects include the flagship...
ipolitics.ca
So, in terms of an exact date if we will know if it will be built, it's not a 100% guarantee it will be at the moment. However, some factors below that relate to timing. In short, it's hard to guarantee when shovels could get in the ground. The bare minimum would be the timelines released by Metrolinx/Infrastructure Ontario if everything goes perfectly. As in, the money arrives exactly when they need it and the response by the private sector to the RFP is exactly within the timeline specified.
1/ As more documents per the Metrolinx timeline becomes public above, it will assist with understanding the final cost estimate.
2/ Relief is still needed at Yonge-Bloor and York Region is pushing hard for the Yonge North Subway Extension, which needs some kind of relief to be built.
3/ City Council endorsed the high level concept of the Ontario Line. Yes, some Councillors may have local concerns when more documentation is available next year. That said, unlike the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE), the provincial/federal funding may not need to 'wait' as long as it did for that project before construction starts.
Also, for the SSE, it actually received a funding commitment before the procurement started. So while the same thing could happen before the OL procurement, given the scale and complexity of the OL I doubt funding will be announced too much in advance of the RFP starting.
4/ The timing of the next provincial and a possible federal election because it's a minority government are factors.
5/ Politically, Ford will want to show progress on this before the next Provincial election. He will also continue to insist that the federal Liberals back it. They might also be interested in showing they some kind of progress on this.
Those are the five factors I can think of. Others may have more. At this point it has been said that the financial strain of covid-19 had not changed the preparation work or implementation of any capital project.