Re: the City's current Phase I plan, and what the future will hold for its northerly extensions or whether it will be built as envisioned, I think the jury is most definitely still out on that (pending the release of the Prov's YRNS study and what it highlights). Even for the shortlist we're being shown now it seems too early to put our eggs in one basket and say Pape-Queen-City Hall is definitive. It's quite probable that in a year or two once YRNS is complete, we could join forces with the Prov and move toward some kind of hybrid between the City/TTC plan and Metrolinx's plans. Example, the City's A and C could morph into YRNS Surface Subway at Chester Hill; or A, B, C, D could do the same at Millwood/Overlea. Also, in YRNS' last doc it's acknowledged that a combination of plans is a possibility in the future.
6.21
While this study did not include an option that combines the long subway/surface subway and the U Subway options, such a project may be considered for a timeframe outside of the scope of this study in future option analysis and development.
When reading over the City's latest numbers, it looks like without SmartTrack and without any gerrymandering to Unilever (i.e the recent "B2" and "D2" ideas), Broadview-King provides the highest ridership (26,800 peak hour, 54,800 peak period, 165k daily boardings); and highest Yonge diversion (4,200 peak hour, or 35% reduction from 2031 Base). So I wouldn't doubt that Metrolinx will use this data to further refine their ideas, or change plans even further (e.g proposing a Relief Line Medium only as far north as Eglinton, perhaps using Broadview). This could definitely change the dynamics of Yonge relief, but further delay the City's attempts at proper bottom-up city-building planning.
Current routes (excluding recent B2 and D2 to Unilever):
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