Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

All you're really asking for is longer platforms/trains. The width of the rolling stock is not the big issue here.
Unfortunately the last iteration reduced train capacity, and they don't seem to have any inclination to build this with much larger stations and longer trains.

Ultimately a traditional subway (with possibly even longer vehicles) is the best solution in the long run.

If longer vehicles and longer stations aren't accounted for now, I can't see it happening in the future without significant costs incurred.
 
Nobody is against more capacity, the question is if it is necessary, and unfortunately the numbers we are throwing around to decide if this is the case has mostly been conjecture. We're throwing around numbers like "30% less capacity" with very little evidence that this is the case.
Well than MX needs to release the evidence. Either MX has studied the implications of the northern extensions and are withholding that information from the public, or they haven't done their due diligence. Until MX released more information, all we have to work with is the initial business case.

Also when taking the rosy capacity numbers in the business case at face value, the volume/capacity ratio of the line when extended to Sheppard is concerning.
And are justifying this by making Metrolinx and Doug Ford look as incompetent as possible, that none of the engineers working on the Ontario Line are aware about how they're making something that won't have enough capacity, and that the only people who know what the city actually needs to fix its problems are the members pushing for the DRL.
Keep in mind that I am an engineer myself. I have no desire to make the engineers on this project look bad, and I'm sure they are doing a professional job, as we should expect of them. But if higher ups tell engineers to design a line with 25k pphpd, that's exactly what you're going to get. My beef is with the politicians and the bureaucrats calling the shots here, not the engineers.
 
MX previously determined that a subway on Don Mills terminating at Sheppard would saturate 70% of the Ontario Line's theoretical capacity upon opening in 2031. This also does not consider that demand that the Ontario Line would need to absorb from RER passengers diverted away from Union. It also does not take into account that the ultimate capacity will likely be lower than the design capacity. Nor does it take into account future population growth and increases transport demand.
Ok so say 80 percent capacity after a few years. The ridership will grow but not all that quickly, especially considering projects like Sheppard east and go expansion will divert some ridership (and hopefully fare integration which would do good to fix half of our problems). We are still up to several decades out from hitting capacity, and during this time we can use the money we saved to start investing in maybe another downtown line, or further go expansion, that can help ease congestion. We shouldn't try and build transit to sit empty for years, we should build transit to be well used. Provisions should be made for future projects or upgrades as soon as possible and really should be built into the design, but we don't need o build a heavy rail subway that will sit at half capacity for years. We did that with Sheppard, though DRL would not have been anywhere near as empty as Sheppard it'd still be far less utilized than Yonge or Bloor, so why does it need their capacity.
 
Nobody is against more capacity, the question is if it is necessary, and unfortunately the numbers we are throwing around to decide if this is the case has mostly been conjecture. We're throwing around numbers like "30% less capacity" with very little evidence that this is the case. We do not even know what vehicles the Ontario Line will be running yet we are forming assumptions after assumptions, and the people on here who desperately want to prove that the Ontario Line won't be enough are stretching numbers to be as "worst case scenerio" as possible, and are justifying this by making Metrolinx and Doug Ford look as incompetent as possible, that none of the engineers working on the Ontario Line are aware about how they're making something that won't have enough capacity, and that the only people who know what the city actually needs to fix its problems are the members pushing for the DRL.

We could make the Ontario Line have a ton of capacity. We can expand the tunnels and run GO EMUs under Toronto so that capacity never becomes an issue for the rest of time, however that costs a ton of money. Even if we take the worst case scenerio if the Ontario Line has 15-30% less capacity than the DRL, if building shallower stations and opening ourselves to less tunneling means that we get less capacity for half of the cost, that's an absolute win. Let's do some math. Let's say we have a budget of about 20 Billion dollars. Option 1 we build a single subway line at a peak capacity of 36k ppdph, and option 2 is for the same price we build 2 subway lines at 25k ppdph (30% less capacity). The 2nd option offers the city significantly more coverage, offering subway service to more parts of the city, and introduced an additional 50k ppdph into the city, for the same price as a single subway line that only introduced capacity for 36k ppdph and did not extend the coverage of the subway system as far.

With the Ontario Line this is what we're effectively doing, except the capacity isn't 30% less, its maybe 10-15% less.

We do know how many passengers per m2 Mx assumed they could squeeze into a train; a number they used in calculating O/L capacity; that is not in dispute.

We also know the number is substantially higher than a crush-loaded Toronto Rocket; in other words, impossible to achieve.

If nothing else, we know that the O/L has substantially less capacity that stated for that reason alone.

We can also reasonably infer that if load factors were in any way close to what Mx suggested it would blow scheduled dwell times out of the water, and therefore further reduce capacity.

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We can debate how much capacity we will need when.

Modelling can only, at best, produced an educated guess.

But we can have a pretty clear idea of what capacity a technology and station design will deliver........

Ergo, we can assess that the proposed capacity is not sufficient to the demand projected by Mx.

Its another matter if it turns out Mx low-balled the demand...........
 
Its another matter if it turns out Mx low-balled the demand...........
IIRC, the City of Toronto has been growing substantially faster than what was expected by the province. We're blowing the population growth projections out of the water, and have been for quite a while. These ridership estimates are based on these population projections, so I fear that the Ontario Line and all of our other rapid transit projects may be substantially underestimating demand. Our most recent project (TYSSE) has also seen higher than expected demand.

This is a whole can of worms I don't really want to get into though. We'll know we're in trouble if the Crosstown LRT ends up with way higher demand than expected.
 
Now that this phase is funded, will Metrolinx start studying extensions? There's no time to waste.
Since it seems like they were exploring the idea of the OL before ford was even elected I imagine they already have and still are. From the community live meetings I've attended it seems like they have several ideas for where the line could go heading west, and my guess is that they are doing some relatively detailed studies at this point for a northward extension.
 
We do know how many passengers per m2 Mx assumed they could squeeze into a train; a number they used in calculating O/L capacity; that is not in dispute.

We also know the number is substantially higher than a crush-loaded Toronto Rocket; in other words, impossible to achieve.

If nothing else, we know that the O/L has substantially less capacity that stated for that reason alone.

We can also reasonably infer that if load factors were in any way close to what Mx suggested it would blow scheduled dwell times out of the water, and therefore further reduce capacity.

***

We can debate how much capacity we will need when.

Modelling can only, at best, produced an educated guess.

But we can have a pretty clear idea of what capacity a technology and station design will deliver........

Ergo, we can assess that the proposed capacity is not sufficient to the demand projected by Mx.

Its another matter if it turns out Mx low-balled the demand...........

Combine all of these factors together, and how long would the stations/trains need to be to achieve the capacity they've outlined in real world conditions? How about capacity comparable to traditional subway with TRs?

This is where it seems far more sensible to have continued with an expanded DRL/DRL North plan, perhaps with bigger station sand trains.

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting it has to be all underground either - just sensibly built to achieve the important goal of maximizing capacity.
 
IIRC, the City of Toronto has been growing substantially faster than what was expected by the province. We're blowing the population growth projections out of the water. These ridership estimates are based on these population projections, so I fear that the Ontario Line and all of our other rapid transit projects may be substantially underestimating demand. Our most recent project (TYSSE) has also seen higher than expected demand.

The Eglinton Crosstown's demand profile will be really interesting to watch when that line opens next year.

The Official Plan review is getting underway............they are, statutorily supposed to refer to the Province's growth plan in terms of how much growth to plan for..............

The number they've been given is +700,000 population for the City proper by 2051.......

The math on that is growth of ~23000 per year......when we're running in excess of 3x that right now.

It may well be reasonable to assume that growth will come down a bit with time; however, the Federal gov't just up'd the annual immigration quotas to all-time record highs over the next 5 years.

This would suggest, a further increase in the near-term at least.

If we averaged a mere 80,000 per year for the next 5 years, that would be over 400,000.

If we declined in growth by 1/3 in the decade following (there's no reason to expect this currently....)

We would grow by over 700000 in the first 11 years. (by 2032).

Even if we collapsed down to 1/3 of current levels thereafter; we'd end up at growth of ~1.2 million by 2051.

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This is something that worries me; that the numbers we are using for planning seem to be either arbitrary or at least inconsistent w/published plans, and known facts.
 
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IIRC, the City of Toronto has been growing substantially faster than what was expected by the province. We're blowing the population growth projections out of the water, and have been for quite a while. These ridership estimates are based on these population projections, so I fear that the Ontario Line and all of our other rapid transit projects may be substantially underestimating demand. Our most recent project (TYSSE) has also seen higher than expected demand.

This is a whole can of worms I don't really want to get into though. We'll know we're in trouble if the Crosstown LRT ends up with way higher demand than expected.

That's correct - this has been the case for many decades now. Downtown Toronto in particular has dramatically exceeded expectations.

This is why the Network 2011 plan was considered out of date when they decided to go ahead with the Sheppard Line. The growth in suburban centres (especially compared with downtown) was nowhere near what they projected.
 
IIRC, the City of Toronto has been growing substantially faster than what was expected by the province. We're blowing the population growth projections out of the water, and have been for quite a while. These ridership estimates are based on these population projections, so I fear that the Ontario Line and all of our other rapid transit projects may be substantially underestimating demand. Our most recent project (TYSSE) has also seen higher than expected demand.

This is a whole can of worms I don't really want to get into though. We'll know we're in trouble if the Crosstown LRT ends up with way higher demand than expected.

That's correct - this has been the case for many decades now. Downtown Toronto in particular has dramatically exceeded expectations.

This is why the Network 2011 plan was considered out of date when they decided to go ahead with the Sheppard Line. The growth in suburban centres (especially compared with downtown) was nowhere near what they projected.

Beyond Toronto's population growth, there is also the issue of latent demand, which is very hard to predict. Essentially, the problem is to determine how many non-transit users would use transit if there was the capacity to accommodate them. Back in the early days of Relief Line North planning, I know of smart people with a lot of experience in the field suspected that the real-world demand on Line 1 and RLN would be substantially higher than what was projected, due to unaccounted latent demand. Both Line 1 and the RLN were projected to have about 20k pphpd demand in 2031.

I just mentioned in the streetcar thread too that I don't believe the 60 additional streetcars will be able to meet future demand, with so much growth in the core of the city.

In general, I feel like our plans are chasing a future that is not materializing. As you mentioned, we have way more growth in the core of the city than expected, and the growth in suburban centres has been lacklustre.

In any case, this thing isn't an exact "science". If you design infrastructure to meet projected demand, and nothing more, you're gonna have a bad time.
 
Beyond Toronto's population growth, there is also the issue of latent demand, which is very hard to predict. Essentially, the problem is to determine how many non-transit users would use transit if there was the capacity to accommodate them. Back in the early days of Relief Line North planning, I know of smart people with a lot of experience in the field suspected that the real-world demand on Line 1 and RLN would be substantially higher than what was projected, due to unaccounted latent demand. Both Line 1 and the RLN were projected to have about 20k pphpd demand in 2031.

I just mentioned in the streetcar thread too that I don't believe the 60 additional streetcars will be able to meet future demand, with so much growth in the core of the city.

In general, I feel like our plans are chasing a future that is not materializing. As you mentioned, we have way more growth in the core of the city than expected, and the growth in suburban centres has been lacklustre.

In any case, this thing isn't an exact "science". If you design infrastructure to meet projected demand, and nothing more, you're gonna have a bad time.

Agree w/the above............but want to add; suburban growth hasn't been terrible..........

NYCC has put up some decent numbers residentially and the Sheppard corridor has grown quite a bit and continues to do so.

Its certainly the case that Scaborough and Etobicoke under performed...........but they also lacked the public investment to bring them forward.

Six Points is only now being delivered, along with the new civic centre; while SCC has never seen its long-promised park delivered or most of its pedestrian masterplan or its additional higher-order transit beyond the SRT. It doesn't even have an Elementary School!

Sheppard has been a moderate success inspite of being a 'stubway' that failed to reach a major employment centre at Victoria Park; and saw its Willowdale Station cut.

NYCC has also hasn't benefited from a higher order transit connection from the west.

The City has also been very slow to upzone.

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All of which is to say, the growth could have been spread a bit more evenly; but it has not..........yet.
 
When we will find out the exact dimensions of the stations themselves because with automated system that can run every 90 seconds, that is all that really matters.
 
LRV doesn't actually mean anything substantial. Many people would call the vehicles on REM LRV's when they are likely the sort of vehicles we are going to get on the OL. If you mean LRVs like the ones we're getting for lines 5 and 6, well that's just not gonna happen. Projects in Ontario have gotten stuck with LRV's when systems were upgraded to more metro style systems like the crosstown and confederation line, not tacked onto existing metro projects to cut costs, which it wouldn't really do anyways.
Well I hope not, but given the past here, I have to be skeptical. It's interesting that we are tearing down the SRT and we will end up with SRT like veichles for this line.
If it was unknowable you could not say for a certainty that it could not be done, even if there is a curve directly after a station it is possible. We just don't know how to do these things these days, old systems have had this done frequently, even ones that have had CBTC retrofitted.


There is not little benefit, with panto and better perf characteristics it can perform better on elevated and outdoor right of ways, and it won't leave us beholden to the old and bad TTC stock.

They are not going to use LRT stock, it has been said so many times including by Metrolinx - so not it could not "likely" happen.

There is no proof they are going to use panto and furthermore why would you believe what MX says about anything? They get their orders from MTO and the Premier's office.
 
What makes you think the OL will be at capacity by the time it makes it to Sheppard? It will definitely be a lot closer to capacity than it will be when it opens but I doubt Metrolinx wouldn't have studied this and determined it will be enough capacity unless again there are ulterior motives I'm not considering. There is a lot of ridership north of Eglinton along Yonge, but I doubt the number of people that use the OL instead of line 1 plus the residents of the relatively low-density areas the OL will go through to get to Sheppard will be enough to push the OL overcapacity. I mean it's not like half of the people who take line one will suddenly switch to taking the OL. If Metrolinx has studied this I definitely think they need to show us some of these numbers to prove that it'll work, but even without them providing proof this definitely seems like their project, and not some politicians, so I trust that the professionals know what they're doing to some degree.
It is their project, they have been pushing this alignment for over 5 years now.
 

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