Toronto Mirvish Village (Honest Ed's Redevelopment) | 85.04m | 26s | Westbank | Henriquez Partners

Towered said:
I had to look that up - never heard of the character or the game before.
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There's a giveaway if you check out PE on Twitter:

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ProjectEnd said:
ED walked off the job two months ago...
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I did read a Twitter thread recently (last week) about a large developer that was teetering on the edge. The developer wasn't named, but the consensus in the comments was that it was WestBank...

If true it'll be very sad. One of my favourite developers in Toronto.
 
LOL, UT reference?
Social media and real estate discussion websites have been filled with speculation about the status of Westbank’s project in recent days, concerns that Mr. Duke swatted away on Monday.

“With regards to the integrity of our company and success of our developments – the malicious rumors circulating online are meritless,” he wrote. “We would not typically address unfounded rumours from anonymous sources; however, these rumours have unfortunately been a distraction.”
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Northern Light said:
Actually that's not true, nor is block-busting going to change it.

Average family size, throughout the western world (and much of the developed world) has dropped like a stone.

View attachment 517885

That line has continued its downward trajectory since 2011.

If all other things were equal, every neighbourhood in Toronto would have seen a reduction in population of (assuming the same number of dwelling units) of about 15% over the last 50 years. But if you look at the number when most of these homes were built, the fall would be more precipitous.

That decline correlates to women having fewer children; even back in 1983 the number had declined to 1.68 children per woman, that number has since declined to 1.48. Replacement rate (the number of children per woman required to hold the population steady is 2.1)

This corresponds to 2 phenomenon, one is the advent of birth control (yay!) the other is the labour participation rate of women (also broadly a good thing, but it will affect family size).

On the latter, see the charts:

View attachment 517887

Even today we see that families with young children have the mother at home fully 20% of the time.

One other notable phenomenon is the rise of post-secondary attainment in general, but particularly for women, as this has pushed off the age of marriage and child bearing which limits the potential for larger families.

Which, by the way, I'm fine with, and I am in no way arguing against women's education or participation in the labour market; I am merely showing the clear correlation, between that and family size. PS, I think the population shrinking is a great idea, and we should do that everywhere, a world with 1/2 as many humans, over time, (naturally) would be great. It would lead to lots of affordable housing too! But I digress.

Yes, money is a barrier to entry in the housing market, but families buying cheaper homes, in cheaper places are also making fewer babies and having smaller household sizes; though, doubtless, Toronto's extreme prices may make that choice that much more difficult.

But time is as big a factor as money in family size.

Money is also a factor in terms of wages, which in entry level professions have declined markedly (adjusted for inflation) over the last few decades.

*****

Now, we can agree housing prices are to high relative to wages, and some combination of driving down the former and driving up the latter is desirable.

Here's your problem, so long as we keep spiking the population through different channels, we're driving up demand, which drives up price, and no developer will ever sell or rent to you for less than the market will bear.

Nor are the going to buy 1.5M homes, knock them down, build new and give you a a better price per comparable unit.

Yes, they may build more units, though not enough to keep up w/demand in the current circumstances; but even if they did, the cost of demolishing all those buildings, and reconstructing them is considerable and developers aren't doing this at-cost, they expect to make healthy profit.

You might see the average price per unit decline, but only if a 2,000ft2 home becomes a 500ft2 1 bedroom condo. How many children are we having in that home?

If you want 2 children, these days, you want each to have their own bedroom. You probably want 2 full bathrooms as well. Even if you cram that into 1,000ft2, you're looking at the same price per unit as the current house, or very close to it.

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The problem is not that we need to wipe out all SFH in favour of multi-unit living, (keep in mind I live in a rental apartment) ; that simply does nothing but further reduce family size and enrich developers.

Lets also note, those existing homes already have secondary suites in many cases and some have laneway suites as well.

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You want more affordable housing, first, stop growing demand; second, raise entry-level through median wages, by ~60% to ~ 30% respectively.

Third, stomp short-term rentals out of existence and eliminate house-flipping.

Fourth, build dedicated rent-geared to income housing for lower income families.

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You want larger family sizes, reduce the work week to 35 hours (but increase hourly earning accordingly); and mandate 4 weeks paid vacation. In combination with more affordable housing and higher entry level wages, you'll likely get your wish.
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"You can't have your cake and eat it" 🤷‍♀️
 
bkden said:
www.theglobeandmail.com

Property developer Westbank faces lawsuits over sprawling Mirvish Village redevelopment project

Westbank says the payment issues stem from a disruption from taking over as its own construction manager on the site, and plans to finish the residential portion of the Mirvish project in 2024
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com
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Good post; as it's currently paywalled, let me pull a few key bits forward:

1699350838086.png


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The next section of the piece details claims by assorted subs.

Global Precast - 1.2M
Flat Iron Building Group - 5.4M
BV Glazing Systems - 9.4M

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Ian Duke, who leads the acquisitions and development teams at Westbank; does the talking on their behalf in the article.

He suggests an ongoing relationship w/the above subs and that outstanding claims are being addressed.

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The Globe, in reviewing public records, seems to feel the site is well capitalized.

Though mentions than the Bank of Montreal's loans are listed at 10% interest in available docs. It goes on to note that the source docs often list higher rates than
are actually agreed to by lenders/applicants.

* Comment * No building in their right mind should have been encumbered at 10% on new financing in 2018. So I certainly hope the agree to rate was considerably lower.

****

I'll close w/this quote, which intrigues:

1699351406836.png


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Westbank still claims to be on track for completion in 2024.
 
Social media and real estate discussion websites have been filled with speculation about the status of Westbank’s project in recent days, concerns that Mr. Duke swatted away on Monday.

“With regards to the integrity of our company and success of our developments – the malicious rumors circulating online are meritless,” he wrote. “We would not typically address unfounded rumours from anonymous sources; however, these rumours have unfortunately been a distraction.”
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...take a chill pill, dude! We're just having a polite conversation here in trying to figure what's going on. And we just want this project to succeed. Thnkx! /sigh
 
UtakataNoAnnex said:
...take a chill pill, dude! We're just having a polite conversation here in trying to figure what's going on. And we just want this project to succeed. Thnkx! /sigh
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There's nothing stopping Mr. Duke from creating a UT account to come in here to dispel rumours personally instead of whining about it to the media.
 
Northern Light said:
Good post; as it's currently paywalled, let me pull a few key bits forward:

View attachment 518498

****

The next section of the piece details claims by assorted subs.

Global Precast - 1.2M
Flat Iron Building Group - 5.4M
BV Glazing Systems - 9.4M

****

Ian Duke, who leads the acquisitions and development teams at Westbank; does the talking on their behalf in the article.

He suggests an ongoing relationship w/the above subs and that outstanding claims are being addressed.

****

The Globe, in reviewing public records, seems to feel the site is well capitalized.

Though mentions than the Bank of Montreal's loans are listed at 10% interest in available docs. It goes on to note that the source docs often list higher rates than
are actually agreed to by lenders/applicants.

* Comment * No building in their right mind should have been encumbered at 10% on new financing in 2018. So I certainly hope the agree to rate was considerably lower.

****

I'll close w/this quote, which intrigues:

View attachment 518499

****

Westbank still claims to be on track for completion in 2024.
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Two things:

Banks register interest rates higher than actual to ensure they don’t have to make changes should interest rates rise. Think of it as a maximum.

Construction loans are priced over prime. Typical would be Prime + 1.00%. So what was as low as 3.45% is now 8.20%
 
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