Toronto Eglinton Line 5 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[Rainforest]

The truth is, nobody knows for sure what will happen when the Line 5 opens in 2025/2026, and how fast ridership will grow as people get used to a (hopefully) reliable and fast crosstown transit option. As Reece Martin and many other people have predicted, the ridership estimates for Eglinton could be woefully low. As late as 2016, Metrolinx predicted only 162,000 daily riders by 2031, a third of Line 2's current daily weekday ridership. In 2017, Metrolinx predicted the GTHA would reach 10 million by 2041, but by the most conservative estimates it is already around 8.5 million, and likely closer to 9.5 million when factoring in disproportionate growth in the GTHA vs. non-metropolitan areas since 2021 and overstayed visas (Benjamin Tal from CIBC).

It looks like we are debating the quality of predictions about predictions. This line will be in active operation within several months, and then we will have the real-life counts.

Absolulely "worst" case scenario: demand beats all expectations, then the TTC has to continue running substantial bus service together with the LRT, and scramble to order more LRT cars. Still not the end of the world.

 

[urbanclient]

With a completely underground line or ground-separated, they'd be unlikely to use low-floor or narrower vehicles; that would be very Mickey Mouse!And I'd guess not 30-metre long cars either.

That's for the 100% grade-separated, with the extension to Scarborough Town Centre - which was causing concerns about the ultimate demand being too high before the cancelled the project.

But that's not what has been built. With Line 2 going to STC rather than Line 5, for most people that are continuing all the way to Line 1, they are going to stay on Line 2, rather than change to Line 5. This moves the peak PPDPH back to west of Cedarvale, instead of east of Yonge (somewhere ... I can't remember if it was west of Mount Pleasant or east of Don Mills).

I am confused, how do line length and/or terminus impact PPDPH assuming the requisite trainsets and platforms can be acquired? If you look at Option 3, 19km, which is more or less what we got in the end (Table 2.2, 2.4), the only way to hit 15,000 passengers per hour with the added condition of having 90 metre platforms is to do 3 car trainsets, 2 minutes apart, each car holding 163 people. 3*30*163=14,670. I personally doubt the real-world feasibility of maintaining 2 minute headways without bunching on a mixed grade LRT. The TTC has proven incapable of running consistent <3 minute headways on Line 1 and 2.

https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/upload/v1663237573/Documents/Metrolinx/Benefits_Case-Eglinton_Crosstown.pdf

 

[nfitz]

I am confused, how do line length and/or terminus impact PPDPH assuming the requisite trainsets and platforms can be acquired? If you look at Option 3, 19km, which is more or less what we got in the end (Table 2.2, 2.4), the only way to hit 15,000 passengers per hour with 90 metre platforms is to do 3 car trainsets, 2 minutes apart, each car holding 163 people. 3*30*163=14,670. I personally doubt the real-world feasibility of maintaining 2 minute headways without bunching on a mixed grade LRT.

Most of the line is grade-separated. Including the highest PPHPD east at Cedarvale, east at Yonge, and west at Yonge. By the time you get out to Kennedy, the westbound demand at AM peak is almost half that as eastbound at Cedarvale.

In the unlikely event that all the experts are wrong, then they can ultimately schedule more trains that short-turn before Scarborough, and use the ATC - which would get them close to a 90-second frequency.

Eglinton certainly has problems now, and likely will operationally. But that it's going to start too crowded is laughable. The hugely successful Canada line subway in Vancouver is surviving quite well with only 40-metre long platforms, 15-year after opening - and even I fear that there may be long-term issues there.

 

[cplchanb]

It looks like we are debating the quality of predictions about predictions. This line will be in active operation within several months, and then we will have the real-life counts.

Absolulely "worst" case scenario: demand beats all expectations, then the TTC has to continue running substantial bus service together with the LRT, and scramble to order more LRT cars. Still not the end of the world.

Thats rather a good problem to have vs the opposite like line 4

 

[Rainforest]

I personally doubt the real-world feasibility of maintaining 2 minute headways without bunching on a mixed grade LRT.

"Without bunching" is obviously preferable, but not an absolute requirement. Yes, you can gain more capacity by running more trains and tolerating some degree of bunching. In fact, that's a typical situation on subway Line 1 during the peak periods

Too many unknowns at this point to make accurate predictions. Will the demand push close to the capacity limit at all. If yes, then which sections will experience the highest demand (if that's west of Laird, you can short-turn half of the trains at Laird, and avoid bunching in the eastern section).

There could be challenges, and there will be ways to deal with those challenges. I don't see anything catastrofic in the design, even if it is not the optimal design.

 

[smallspy]

.... and the platforms are not fully ready for 90 metre trains.

This is incorrect.

Dan

 

[StreetcarRider]

Some good news. Lots of coupled vehicles were out for revenue testing today, and based on an unscientific little jaunt between Laird and Bermondsey, the vehicles seem to be faster than cycling.

 

[Jm gravel]

Yes lots of vehicles out over the weekend but some pretty interesting traffic jam ups of people turning onto Eglinton while waiting for trains to clear the intersections…yesterday afternoon there was a very long line at Bermondsey and this morning for some reason unknown (except coordination of traffic lights) the ramp from the Don Valley Parkway was backed up onto the Parkway itself…some further work to do from my observations.

 

[urbanclient]

This is incorrect.

Dan

Was being pedantic here, you mean to say with absolutely 0 change such as the addition of yellow bollards, the platforms are ready to go for 3 car trains on Day 1? In that case that's great news. I meant that I expected there was at least a nominal amount of work to be done, something a developing country wage slave company might be able to do in one work day, but Crosslinx Transit Solutions might take several weeks. 99.99% of the issue is that I think more rolling stock is needed for 3 car trains, 3 minute headways, both ways. There was a lead time of nearly 4 years when Edmonton ordered LRVs from Hyundai Rotem recently.

 

[Steve X]

Was being pedantic here, you mean to say with absolutely 0 change such as the addition of yellow bollards, the platforms are ready to go for 3 car trains on Day 1? In that case that's great news. I meant that I expected there was at least a nominal amount of work to be done, something a developing country wage slave company might be able to do in one work day, but Crosslinx Transit Solutions might take several weeks. 99.99% of the issue is that I think more rolling stock is needed for 3 car trains, 3 minute headways, both ways. There was a lead time of nearly 4 years when Edmonton ordered LRVs from Hyundai Rotem recently.

View attachment 692993

Those bollards block the coupler area between cars. There should be two sets, one between car 1 and 2 and one set between car 2 and 3. You can see them on the surface stops too. They would only need to be relocated if they throw a different car length on the line.

 

[ThenWhat]

So that we all know the background for the discussion about capacities, headways, etc: Some time ago we read in this forum that TTC would have 56 cars (28 two-car trains) for ELRT, to begin with anyway. Will somebody confirm that, so that we can agree what we are talking about?

 

[max]

So that we all know the background for the discussion about capacities, headways, etc: Some time ago we read in this forum that TTC would have 56 cars (28 two-car trains) for ELRT, to begin with anyway. Will somebody confirm that, so that we can agree what we are talking about?

76 cars delivered:

Toronto Transit Commission 6200-6275 - CPTDB Wiki (Canadian Public Transit Discussion Board)

That would be 38 two-car trains. I do not know the spare ratio they use (perhaps someone else does) but I'll note that 25% of 38 rounds up to 10.

 

[cplchanb]

Those bollards block the coupler area between cars. There should be two sets, one between car 1 and 2 and one set between car 2 and 3. You can see them on the surface stops too. They would only need to be relocated if they throw a different car length on the line.

arent the trains already preempting that by stopping right at the end of the platform as if there was an imaginary third car attached? the bollards look like they are already installed for that scenario

 

[BrenWilson]

I'm fairly certain they'll need more cars for ECWE service, so they could pad that order for more cars in general. I do wonder how long until they realize they need to tunnel or elevate the eastern leg.

 

[Thaboss]

I'm fairly certain they'll need more cars for ECWE service, so they could pad that order for more cars in general. I do wonder how long until they realize they need to tunnel or elevate the eastern leg.

If ever, it will be a very long time before this is contemplated, debated, and implimented...