Northern Light
Superstar
TOK Coach Lines (which admittedly only runs 12 buses a week, 6 in, 6 out, half to/from Haliburton, half to/from Southampton and points in between) moved out of the Union Bus Terminal owing to the unpredictability of traffic in Toronto and difficulty in maintaining schedules because of it. They now pick up and drop off from VMC as their main Toronto station (with Pearson being the other main stop on the Southampton route).
Then you get Flixbus who are running discount trips to New York, Ottawa, Montreal, London, Detroit, etc. You may see their buses on the street because even though they are going downtown, they don't want to pay the fee to use the terminal.
Finally, as the frequency of the GO train network increases to 2-way all-day service on most lines, it will make more sense for coach lines that don't have to come into town to terminate at suburban GO stations and/or subway stations like Highway 407 station which is built for tons of buses that haven't arrived yet.
For those reasons — downtown traffic making schedules difficult to maintain, discount operators not wanting to pay the fee, improved GO train service making busing downtown runs less necessary — I'm not convinced that the Union GO Bus Terminal is underbuilt.
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I'm inclined to agree w/your overall assessment; but I do wonder if:
a) The fees for using the terminal are objectively high, and if a lower fee wouldn't result in materially higher usage?
b) If the access issues noted were addressed with at least limited distanced dedicated lanes to/from the Gardiner whether that wouldn't also generate a material uptick.
Both of these combined may not result in the terminal being under-built for the reasons you noted, particularly GO Expansion. But I think it's a bit murky to me on where the capacity utilization would land.