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Toronto Centre & York Centre Byelections, 2020

Down to the wire on this one.

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I think the Libs are 'safe' in this one.............but if this result holds, very good night for the Greens, pulling 32% and a second-place finish.

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Did John Turmel change his legal name to include 'the engineer'?
 
Wrapping up the coverage for tonight........looks like the Libs pulled out both seats; but I think both were almost certainly closer than expected.

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DSC said:
If you do not want the Liberal candidate to win, it would probably be best to vote NDP
Click to expand...
Wrong. Your error was using the past to predict the future whilst neglecting changes in the present circumstances. Smarter advice would have been for the final remnants of NDP supporters to switch to Greens. I predict a Green win in Toronto Centre soon.

“Paul, meanwhile, soared to a close second with almost 33 per cent of the vote -- more than quadrupling the meagre seven per cent she won in Toronto Centre during the general election. The NDP share of the vote dropped five points to 17 per cent and the Conservative vote share was cut in half to less than six per cent.”

www.ctvnews.ca

Liberals win two Toronto byelections despite stiff challenges from Greens, Tories

The federal Liberals saw their share of the vote drop in two Toronto byelections Monday, a humbling result for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the first electoral test of his government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.ctvnews.ca
 
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Proof that you don't just rely on past results to determine which party is best to "stop the Liberals". Still, it's interesting that *both* the Liberal *and* the Conservative shares dropped more than the NDP share...
 
adma said:
Proof that you don't just rely on past results to determine which party is best to "stop the Liberals". Still, it's interesting that *both* the Liberal *and* the Conservative shares dropped more than the NDP share...
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There must be a core group of Dippers, but Singh is dragging his party into oblivion. The smart NDP move, knowing they had no chance to win in Toronto Centre was to make a deal with Paul to pull the NDP candidate entirely, in exchange for Paul not running a strong candidate in a closely Liberal-contested NDP riding. Otherwise the Greens and NDP will continue to split the vote to Justin's benefit. Let's hope the NDP and Greens learn from this for the next national election.
 
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Solid showing by Paul in Toronto Centre. It wouldn't surprise me if she runs in Guelph, which is Mike Schreiner's provincial seat, in the next federal election.

The close second face finish for Tiangson and the Conservatives shows the growing strength of the Filipino vote in the city.
 
mjl08 said:
Solid showing by Paul in Toronto Centre. It wouldn't surprise me if she runs in Guelph, which is Mike Schreiner's provincial seat, in the next federal election.

The close second face finish for Tiangson and the Conservatives shows the growing strength of the Filipino vote in the city.
Click to expand...

Paul was close enough, that if the Libs show any signs of faltering, she might do well to stay the course in Toronto-Centre.

She doesn't have to shave a lot of points to eek out a victory.

Take just 1 point off the dippers, and 5 off the Libs. and you're there, with a couple points to spare.
 
Northern Light said:
Paul was close enough, that if the Libs show any signs of faltering, she might do well to stay the course in Toronto-Centre.

She doesn't have to shave a lot of points to eek out a victory.

Take just 1 point off the dippers, and 5 off the Libs. and you're there, with a couple points to spare.
Click to expand...
Opposition parties tend to do better in byelections. In a general election more Liberals will turn out and it won't be close.
 
If he can also continue to split the right-wing vote and make the Cons seem electorally inept, some right of centre may start to look to him as the alternative. Long game and scary game, but probably part of his thinking.
 
I was browsing through Twitter after it was pretty clear the Liberals would hold York Centre and conservatives were so mad at Max for carpetbagging to Toronto and getting a Liberal elected.
 
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