As an Ottawa based government relations consultant, I regularly advise clients on how various political developments including legislative or regulatory policies intersect with their interests.
Below is the generic version of the note on the by-elections I held the pen on and was sent to various clients and other stakeholders, including the desks of several ambassadors and staff within several diplomatic missions in Canada.
Prime Minister Harper’s strategy to call simultaneous by-elections in four vacant ridings, all previously held by the Liberal Party was considered by many pundits to be risky. If the by-election results favoured the Opposition, it could create momentum for a spring 2008 election. Given the outcome of yesterday’s by-elections, we believe the collective appetite of the Liberals and the NDP for a federal election this spring has diminished.
Interpreting the By-Elections: Victories and Near Disasters
Heading into the St. Patrick’s Day by-elections, no federal political figure in Canada was more invested in the outcome than Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. Amid media speculation that caucus support for the Liberal leader was low, and compounded by publicly visible capitulations to the government on extending the Afghanistan mission (with conditions), the criminal justice package, and the 2008 Budget, Stéphane Dion was hoping for a little luck of the Irish.
The by-elections were called by the Prime Minister following the retirement of four Liberal MPs, three of whom were high profile Ministers in previous Liberal administrations. Up for grabs were two seats in Toronto previously held by the Hon. Bill Graham and the Hon. Jim Peterson; the riding of Vancouver Quadra, previously represented by the Hon. Stephen Owen; and the northern Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, which in the last decade has been held by the Conservatives, the New Democrats, and most recently by the Liberals.
Toronto Centre and Willowdale: Liberals hold steady, NDP hemorrhages
In Toronto Centre, Liberal leadership candidate and former Ontario NDP Premier Bob Rae won a decisive victory capturing 59 per cent of the vote. While the victory was predicted, what was remarkable to observers was the strong finish of the Green candidate at 13.6 per cent and the weak display by the NDP at 13.8 per cent. In 2006 the NDP finished with 24 per cent in Toronto Centre, while the Greens drew five per cent.
In the Toronto riding of Willowdale, another former Liberal leadership candidate, Martha Hall Findlay, cruised to victory in an equally predictable fashion. However, once again the NDP saw its support fall while the fortunes of the Green Party rose. NDP support fell from 11.4 per cent in 2006 to four per cent, while Green support increased from four to nearly six per cent.
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River: Return to Conservative FoldConservative prospects were highest in the Saskatchewan riding, which was won in 2006 by the Liberals by the razor thin margin of 67 votes and was, at that time, the focus of allegations of voting irregularities. This time the riding turned heavily toward the Conservative candidate, Rob Clarke, an Aboriginal Canadian and a 17-year veteran of the RCMP, who handily defeated Liberal candidate Joan Beatty, a former provincial New Democrat who was hand-picked by Mr. Dion. The Conservatives captured 48 per cent of the vote compared to the Liberals at 31.5 per cent.
Ms. Beatty's campaign was troubled from the start. Mr. Dion chose to bypass the nomination process to appoint her as his chosen candidate, a move that angered local supporters of another contender for the nomination, David Orchard, who played a role in Mr. Dion's leadership victory. The Liberals knew the riding was vulnerable, but the decisiveness of the victory for a relative unknown and inexperienced candidate over a well-seasoned hand-picked star was not widely speculated.
This is the second time that Mr. Dion has bypassed the nomination process to appoint a “star candidate†and had the move backfire. Last summer Mr. Dion was criticized by some Quebec Liberals for his decision to name Jocelyn Coulon the candidate in the Liberal stronghold of Outremont. Mr. Coulon was handily defeated by the NDP challenger.
Vancouver-Quadra: Liberals Stave off Conservative Surge
While the Conservative victory in Saskatchewan was not unexpected, the near loss by the Liberals in Vancouver-Quadra caught many by surprise. Our intelligence obtained before the by-election indicated that Quadra was the focus of intense Conservative campaigning. Moreover, the Conservatives were using the by-election in Vancouver to test the effectiveness of their efforts to build support with non-traditional Conservative voters.
Liberal candidate Joyce Murray, a former B.C. environment minister won the seat but finished only 151 votes ahead of University of British Columbia Law Professor Deborah Meredith, the Conservative candidate. The by-election result was a massive shift from the federal election in 2006 when the Liberal’s Stephen Owen had a 21 per cent lead over his Tory rival. In addition to the shift in support to the Tories, the Green Party scored a moral victory, capturing 13.5 per cent of the vote, an increase from five per cent in the 2006 election. New Democratic support dropped to a virtual tie with the Greens.
Election Calculus
Any chance for a federal election hinges on the presence of a united Opposition. Currently, those conditions do not exist. The poor showing in Vancouver-Quadra coupled with the loss in Saskatchewan may have tempered any Liberal desire to take down the Conservative minority in the very near future. Internally the Liberals continue to suffer from poor organization in Quebec and problems in attracting political donations.
Similarly, the Liberals may decide that given the recent economic uncertainty in Central Canada, their fortunes could improve by delaying an election and letting the Conservatives wear any fall-out caused by a potential recession.
For Liberals, the loss in Saskatchewan and erosion of support in Vancouver-Quadra will be disheartening. Nevertheless, the Liberals can claim some sense of victory with Rae, Findlay and Murray joining Dion’s front bench.
Moreover, given the pact between Mr. Dion and Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, the strong numbers for the Green Party relative to the NDP could auger well for the Liberals in a future election.
The arrangement forged last summer between Mr. Dion and Ms. May to not run candidates against each other in the leader’s ridings was initially panned by some Liberal insiders and mocked by many in the media. However, support for Green candidates could migrate to Liberals during an election campaign, given that the two parties have essentially validated each other as suitable alternatives to one another.
Since the Liberals are the most likely of the two to form a government, this potential migration in support would be more likely to benefit Liberal candidates in tightly contested ridings where Green supporters may be willing to shift allegiances to thwart a Conservative victory.
The poor performance by the NDP in the by-elections should also make them risk adverse. Based on current levels of support measured in recent polls the NDP could potentially lose 10 to 15 seats in its 30 member caucus.
Arguably, the biggest winners were the Conservatives who had been careful to keep expectations low and repeatedly point out that all four seats being contested were the Liberals' to lose. Accordingly the win in Saskatchewan and near upset in Vancouver-Quadra will be positioned as a sign of success by supporters of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
While the prospects of an election have diminished substantially, the Opposition parties still have eight more Supply Days to use before June 23. It is always open to the Opposition to use a Supply Day to introduce a motion of non-confidence in the government, as was done in the fall of 2005 to defeat the Martin government. Supply Days have been allocated for each of the first three days when the House of Commons returns on March 31.
Nevertheless, encouraged by recent events the Conservatives may decide to launch bolder and more daring policy initiatives that heretofore were unpalatable to the Opposition. Likewise, it is reasonable to expect no change whatsoever in the Conservative strategy of governing as if they held a majority.
