88drums
Active Member
The data used in the computer models that estimate what traffic a new project will generate is based on observation of existing conditions, it's not created out of thin air.
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Of course it's annoying when passive observers write off models they don't understand. Most criticism of shadow studies is particularly groan-worthy.
But in the case of more complex models of human behaviour, it's also unfair to write off legitimate scientific curiosity like West End Boy's. After all, existing conditions aren't tomorrow's conditions, and the assumptions and parameters underlying these models are inherently uncertain, and can quite easily be biased to favour a given conclusion -- sometimes unbeknownst to the modellers themselves.
I don't know about this model in particular, but given substantial near-term uncertainty both locally (cycling and transit infrastructure nearby, the future of Uber) and on a larger scale (driverless cars filling the roads, cultural shifts in car sharing), I'd bet my bottom dollar that there's plenty about this model that's up for debate.