Would you not say the rationale is the buffer of the Allen expressway to protect the neighborhoods than the distance to the subway?...there are far closer areas to subways which will never be changed this drastically .
Not really, no.
Stations are getting MTSAs that generally cover an area in/around 500M from a station entrance.
Those MTSAs will generally be permissive on density.
You can this in applications at Main Station for towers exceeding 50s, at Woodbine 30+s, at Pape, 40+s and so on.
There are or will be applications of which I'm aware for towers at or above 20s in height at, Kennedy, Warden, Victoria Park, Spadina, Bathurst, Dufferin, Keele, High Park, Dundas West and Islington on Line 2.
Similar asks will be made at St. Clair West, Eglinton West, Lawrence West, Yorkdale and Wilson on Line 1.
Sure, you can find a few stations where intensification is likely to be more gentle (maybe only as high as 8s), or preserving some heritage SFH etc.
Generally this owes to, (sometimes) meritorious heritage, to homes that are more expensive to assemble, to more difficult politics around approval, to more challenging lot sizes (particularly lot depth)etc.
In respect of that, do I foresee any 40s applications at Yonge/Lawrence soon? Nah, but there are and will be applications here, its just that the bump will be a bit softer, to 7s-15s right up against Yonge, and 6s-9s up against Lawrence.
Glencairn, particularly on the west side has a relatively short distance to Marlee, making the purchase, where feasible, of full depth to the Allen Parks more desirable, the land cost is cheaper, (not cheap) and there is less expected pushback.
Now, the east side of the Allen will be more interesting here. I still expect to see some intensification pressures, but the neighbourhood is shorter, has less precedent and a lot more $$$, someone will have have to a bit braver, but I still forsee at least someone upward pressure.