If Los Angeles enters the race as a replacement, Toronto will still be able to handle their own. I have no doubt Toronto will have the strongest bid on paper just like 2008. This time there is no Beijing just Paris and Rome. Los Angeles just recently had a Summer Olympics in 1984 and if they get 2024, this will be their third time hosting. No way in hell this happens. Paris and Rome have hosted as well but not so recent as LA.
Let's say these are the bidding cities by deadline: Toronto, Paris, Rome, Hamburg, Budapest, Los Angeles, Baku
The shortlist will definitely include 5 cities: Toronto, Paris, Rome, Hamburg, Los Angeles
My two cents on the voting with this crop of candidates:
Vote splitting between the 3 European candidates will be prominent through each round. The USA should have an early exit, first round exit once again. There was a reason why they passed on LA the first time, now submitting them in once their Boston bid and USOC were in shambles. Hosting in 1984 won't help. Toronto will benefit by getting atleast 90-95% of Los Angeles's voters in the next round. The vote splitting between Paris, Rome and Hamburg will help Toronto push forward to a final ballot vs. either Paris or Rome.