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The Star: Condos outsell Houses in the GTA

Hypnotoad

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Link: http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/287648

A first: Condos outselling houses
VINCE TALOTTA/TORONTO STAR
High prices propel sales above 50% of total deals
c581301845baa2aba02a78db094e.jpeg



Dec 21, 2007 04:30 AM
Tony Wong
Business Reporter

A single-family detached house has long been the ideal dream for Canadian homebuyers.

But, in case you couldn't already tell by all the construction cranes dotting Toronto's ever more crowded skyline, 2007 has become the year of the condo.

New condominium sales in the Toronto area officially passed the 50 per cent mark for the first time, outselling new low-rise homes, according to November figures to be released today by the Building Industry and Land Development Association.

"This is really unheard of. Low-rise homes were always the preferred choice, but it shows you how much the market has changed," Stephen Dupuis, chief executive of the association, said in an interview.

The average new condo price is now $347,207, up 8.6 per cent from last November. Low-rise homes saw a price increase of 6.8 per cent to $429,673, according to a copy of the report obtained by the Toronto Star.

Historically, from one-quarter to one-third of all new homes sold were condos, Dupuis said. But over the years, that ratio has risen sharply, with condos taking the lead in November, making up 52 per cent of all new homes sold in the 11 months.

With one month left to go, builders expect that ratio to stay above 50 per cent to close 2007.

"When condo sales were 45 per cent of the market last year, we thought we'd never see another year like that," Dupuis said.

In the first 11 months of this year, 22,059 condos were sold, smashing the previous annual record of 17,561, set in 2005.

Analysts say affordability is one of the main drivers of the condo market, as buyers priced out of the single-detached segment set their sights on something more financially manageable.

"The $82,000 difference in price between an average low-rise home and a condo goes a long way to explaining the highrise market strength," Dupuis said.

"The suburban type home with the big lot has gotten so expensive, people are backing into the condo market."

Thanks to the strength of the condo market, overall new-home sales, which were forecast to be 10 per cent less this year than last, will likely be 10 per cent higher, said association president Bob Finnigan.

"New condos are selling like hotcakes, it's as simple as that," said Finnigan.

This week has seen a string of good news for realtors, in stark contrast to the capsizing U.S. housing market, which has seen prices implode.

On Wednesday, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported that, during the first two weeks of December, home resales in the Toronto area topped the 90,000 mark for the first time.

Nationally, the Canadian Real Estate Association this week said home resales broke the annual record in the first 11 months of the year, with one month to go.

Despite the strength in sales, analysts say next year will see fewer sales of homes and more moderate price appreciation.

Housing firm Royal Lepage Real Estate Services expects the average resale home to appreciate by 3.5 per cent in 2008.

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Not surprising. But why did they pick Infinity as the photo for this trend? Surely this will only kill the condo market ;)
 
In the first 11 months of this year, 22,059 condos were sold, smashing the previous annual record of 17,561, set in 2005.


WOW!

If you put in this month it would easily go to 24,000-25,000...

An almost 8000 unit jump from last year or about a 40% increase!
 
In 2010, after the credit crunch smashes the condo market, trailers (single and double sided) will outsell condos 3-1! Developers will soon realize the potential for profit--stacked trailers! Prefab homes stacked on steel frames! Own your dream trailer for just $1 down and get free trailer trash removal for life!

But seriously folks, the next trend will surely be bungalows! (Realizing that 350sqft condos are too small to hold babies+parents but being priced out of larger homes the sheep will be buying small single story homes--imho!)
 
^ Mock the trend if you want to, but this is to be expected as Toronto becomes more "Manhattanized". The program of encouraging intensification is clearly working. This does indicate that vultur's loud proclamations of condo doom are mistaken, if (as the evidence seems to indicate) the Toronto housing market has decisively swung from single-family houses to condos. The permanent base level of new condo starts would be considerably higher than he assumes -- at least that is how I interpret the evidence.

Bill
 
Well, yes. How many new houses are built each year in Manhattan? From now on, most new residences in Toronto will be multi-unit condos or apartments -- meaning that the current rate of new condo starts can be maintained or exceeded indefinitely without leading to a crash. This is a good thing.

Bill
 
Well, yes. How many new houses are built each year in Manhattan? From now on, most new residences in Toronto will be multi-unit condos or apartments -- meaning that the current rate of new condo starts can be maintained or exceeded indefinitely without leading to a crash. This is a good thing.

Bill

I would say that's definitely overoptimistic, and does rather oversimplify the situation.
 
I would say that's definitely overoptimistic, and does rather oversimplify the situation.

I don't think it's overoptomistic. Given the current annual increases in the population of Toronto, and the current trends in household size, there will continue to be a large demand for smaller residences. These are the most recent figures I could find with a quick web search:

Changes in Toronto households, 1996 to 2001

1 person : +14,700 => +2,940/year
2 person : +8,400 => +1,680/year
3 person : +7,200 => +1,440/year
4-5 person : +7,700 => +1,540/year
6+ person : +1,400 => +280/year

TOTAL : +39,400 => +7,880/year

I believe that these rates have increased since 2001.

There are still new single-family houses being built in Toronto, but the numbers are low and going down with the virtual elimination of brownfield developments.

Of course these numbers are below the 25,000 or so condos sold this year, but the number that counts is the number of condos built per year.

Bill
 
Changes in Toronto households, 1996 to 2001

1 person : +14,700 => +2,940/year
2 person : +8,400 => +1,680/year
3 person : +7,200 => +1,440/year
4-5 person : +7,700 => +1,540/year
6+ person : +1,400 => +280/year

TOTAL : +39,400 => +7,880/year

There are still new single-family houses being built in Toronto, but the numbers are low and going down with the virtual elimination of brownfield developments.

Bill


Good stats Bill. These show the trend towards more one or two person units in the city. However, you only need to look outside of Toronto to know that the single-family-sized units are being built enmasse in the 'burbs. Milton, for example, is exploding. Guelph too. The fringes are growing farther away from the city (as has always been the case).

So the implications of this are regional and not just local.
 
I would say that's definitely overoptimistic, and does rather oversimplify the situation.

Naive is more like it. The plain and simple truth is that between 60%-70% of the new condo sales in Toronto in 2007 were to specuvestors. The demand is not real.

TOTAL : +39,400 => +7,880/year

Under 8,000 new households justifies 20,000 new condo sales? I think you've made my point for me.
 
Mock the trend if you want to, but this is to be expected as Toronto becomes more "Manhattanized". The program of encouraging intensification is clearly working.

Reminds me of what was often heard before the last big condo bust.

Take a walk down Warden Avenue from Eglinton and tell me again the only place for Toronto to go is up. It reminds me of Dundas in Halton/Peel as this former industrialized corridor is replaced by sub-divisions on every block

I can only imagine the condo "trend" will be hit the hardest on the pending downward curve when the pricepoint for a new condo is currently about 40% higher than that of a new infill house in the same area.
 
Under 8,000 new households justifies 20,000 new condo sales? I think you've made my point for me.

That's 7-8,000 new households PER YEAR, against a total of 20,000 new condos over the next three years or so. The numbers actually make perfect sense, considering how relatively few tract houses are being built in Toronto.
 

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