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The Coming Disruption of Transport

Would you buy an EV from a Chinese OEM?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 11.5%

  • No

    Votes: 61 70.1%

  • Maybe

    Votes: 16 18.4%
  • Total voters
    87
TRONto said:
tech.slashdot.org

Blocked Traffic, Disrupted Firefighters: Why San Francisco Wants to Slow Robotaxi Rollout - Slashdot

"San Francisco is trying to slow the expansion of robotaxis," reports NBC News, "after repeated incidents in which cars without drivers stopped and idled in the middle of the street for no obvious reason, delaying bus riders and disrupting the work of firefighters." The city's transportation...
tech.slashdot.org

These scenarios will generate pushback against self-driving cars
Click to expand...

Yes, but that does not mean they aren’t coming, just maybe a bit. slower than some believe.

There has to be some real life beta testing, and many lessons learned along the way. These examples all are situations that I would categorize as lessons learned - some of which sadly may be fatal.

There have been crashes and fatalities, certainly….. but only on a scale similar to the exploding Pinto, and far less than say the B-737 Max or the dirigible.

So as an exercise in rolling out a transformational technology, we are not at “failure”. We just need the regulators to exercise caution and manage the level of risk prudently.

- Paul
 
The only thing that can stop autonomy is if it were impossible (other than end of civilization). Otherwise, it is inevitable. The value creation opportunity is too large.
 
crs1026 said:
Yes, but that does not mean they aren’t coming, just maybe a bit. slower than some believe.

There has to be some real life beta testing, and many lessons learned along the way. These examples all are situations that I would categorize as lessons learned - some of which sadly may be fatal.

There have been crashes and fatalities, certainly….. but only on a scale similar to the exploding Pinto, and far less than say the B-737 Max or the dirigible.

So as an exercise in rolling out a transformational technology, we are not at “failure”. We just need the regulators to exercise caution and manage the level of risk prudently.

- Paul
Click to expand...
The technology has undoubtedly made a lot of advances, but that last x% will be crucial, and very, very difficult.

It's hard to say how many people were killed in non-military dirigible accidents when they were in their prime; the Hindenberg killed 35. The 737 Max was a result of corporate hubris, poor training resources and a failure in regulatory oversight. It should be noted that flying is highly regulated, much more so than vehicle operation.
 
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Reactions: PL1
This looks like progress in addressing the lack of EV battery capacity in Canada.

MSN

www.msn.com

www.volkswagenag.com

Media

On the media page of the Volkswagen Group you will find the latest news and contacts of our brands and companies, dates and publications.
www.volkswagenag.com www.volkswagenag.com

Does this suggest that VW may produce EVs in Canada? More likely EV batteries will be shipped to VW plants in the US and eventually Mexico.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I’ll take it. The batteries is where innovation and value add lay.
Click to expand...
Doubtful. All the R&D is done elsewhere. These plants are highly automated. This is likely an energy cost and logistics play. Batteries are going to become commodity items even more than they already are.
 
afransen said:
As we green the grid, this becomes less important. And the calculus should include the emissions saved by having fewer cars serve more people through TaaS. I will chalk this up to FUD.
Click to expand...

You're assuming that autonomous vehicles will only be deployed in developed countries with clean grids and that the public will see fit to use automation to reduce car usage. Those are big assumptions that don't line up with historical reality. For example, we didn't use the improved efficiencies of engines over the years to save on gas. We used it to drive larger vehicles and more miles.

Ultimately, I think we'll need to have a discussion on restricting traffic. But maybe it'll take years of cities getting choked by AEVs before we have that conversation.
 
kEiThZ said:
You're assuming that autonomous vehicles will only be deployed in developed countries with clean grids and that the public will see fit to use automation to reduce car usage. Those are big assumptions that don't line up with historical reality. For example, we didn't use the improved efficiencies of engines over the years to save on gas. We used it to drive larger vehicles and more miles.

Ultimately, I think we'll need to have a discussion on restricting traffic. But maybe it'll take years of cities getting choked by AEVs before we have that conversation.
Click to expand...
Fewer cars is through higher utilization, not lower VMTs. There is a fair amount of embedded carbon in vehicles and particularly EVs, and autonomy/TaaS increases their utilization, requiring fewer vehicles for same VMTs. I suspect TaaS will have other benefits, such as lighter vehicles being used for daily commuting use and weekend warrior truck staying parked.

All grids will green as renewables crowd out fossil fuels. India and China are already leaders in deploying new renewable capacity.

Road pricing is coming. Sooner rather than later. In a way, this is a boon for the public as more of the value of pricing car use can be captured for the public good rather than funding Russian oligarch megayachts and Saudi money furnace schemes.
 
Growth in EV's equates to reduction in other auto parts manufacturing - so much for radiators, oil pumps, crankcases etc. The jobs in batteries are good to see, and perhaps there is an embedded carbon improvement in batteries versus all the metal forging.

This transaction also emphasizes the importance of free trade and the Canada-US-Mexico transportation corridors. VW produces a lot of vehicles in Mexico. That's a lot of logistics business....

- Paul
 
crs1026 said:
Growth in EV's equates to reduction in other auto parts manufacturing - so much for radiators, oil pumps, crankcases etc. The jobs in batteries are good to see,
Click to expand...

Those jobs are going away really fast. See GM's recent offer to most of their salaried employees in the US. They are basically aiming to cut 35-40% of that workforce this year.
crs1026 said:
perhaps there is an embedded carbon improvement in batteries versus all the metal forging.
Click to expand...

Most BEVs have higher embedded carbon because of the amount of materials required and the processing to create those materials. This is where jurisdictions with a high proportion of emissions free power helps. Not sure what the embedded carbon will be in an Ontario built battery pack, but it's still probably going to be slightly higher than an Ontario built car and that's okay, because those battery packs don't burn gas for 12-15 years.
 
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