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The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy?

kEiThZ said:
Nah. This is a Saab marketing pitch and political play. Their fighter is out of contention and their radar bird won't meet upcoming requirements either. Hence this pitch.



Different time period. Different threat environnement, reaction time, missions, etc. À lot of what light fighters used to then are done by drones today.



It's marketing nonsense. I have to regularly explain this. The F-35 comes with a lot more built in. Hence the higher costs. But to operate even a higher fraction of that ability requires Gripens to be supported by other expensive EW aircraft, carry targeting pods themselves and maybe use longer range munitions (more expensive). What matters is the system cost to deliver the necessary effect. Not the cost of individual pieces. And on this score, the F-35 is cheaper.

Put it this way. You have to change a light fixture. You need a certain number of tools. You can get that in a $30 multitool. Or you can buy $60 worth of tool where the screwdriver costs $10. What's the cheapest option for you to get the job done?
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If Canada decided to go further than the 88 F35As, would you think we should just get more F35s?

Or will it be more about the 'loyal wingman' concept to expand capability?
 
kEiThZ said:
Nah. This is a Saab marketing pitch and political play. Their fighter is out of contention and their radar bird won't meet upcoming requirements either. Hence this pitch.
Click to expand...

I don't doubt your info, but wanted to put out there for your take that it has been mooted that this might be done to manufacture the order from Ukraine.

To my understanding Saab lacks the capacity to fill the order at its existing facilities; and Canada as part of its foreign aid to Ukraine is already subsidizing this purchase.

Does that line up at all for you? If not, what is your sense of the above (ie. Where will the aircraft for Ukraine be made?, assuming that order is real?)
 
Admiral Beez said:
It makes no difference anyway, if Carney announced the cancelation or reduction of the F-35 deal, Trump would unleash a tantrum against Canada. I wouldn't be surprised if he demanded that all F-35 components and investment in Canada be repatriated, and heck in a fit of rage could demand that GDLS-C move all production back home.

But I strongly suggest that we consider non-US sources (when available and up to the task) for future military procurement. For example, when we decide to scrap the garbage Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclones, we should look to AgustaWestland for their Merlins, like we should have done in the first place.
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Not just Trump. The working relationship is good between the countries despite Trump. I think that could change if we substantially cut the Panther order or outright cancel. I wonder what happens if the Americans flat out say that they'll end NORAD or kick us out of 5 Eyes.

afransen said:
If Canada decided to go further than the 88 F35As, would you think we should just get more F35s?

Or will it be more about the 'loyal wingman' concept to expand capability?
Click to expand...

The crazy part in all these stories to me is that we are getting the worst defence product from Sweden. We could discuss building CV-90s here. But no, we're talking about building a jet they lost every open competition against the F-35, has nearly the same all-up cost (ignore the marketing). And will be obsolete in the lifetime of everyone here. Meanwhile, the F-35's currently projected retirement is 2070+.

I have argued that if we want to do something smart, let's join a sixth gen program like GCAP or co-operative efforts for CCAs ("loyal wingman"). I have heard several generals make the same argument informally. Chasing down low value assembly work only to deliver an inferior product to our air force is dumb.

Northern Light said:
I don't doubt your info, but wanted to put out there for your take that it has been mooted that this might be done to manufacture the order from Ukraine.

To my understanding Saab lacks the capacity to fill the order at its existing facilities; and Canada as part of its foreign aid to Ukraine is already subsidizing this purchase.

Does that line up at all for you? If not, what is your sense of the above (ie. Where will the aircraft for Ukraine be made?, assuming that order is real?)
Click to expand...

I don't get the naivete. They can build a plant anywhere in the world. But they'll pick Canada? Why do you think that is? Meanwhile they are also telling the Ukrainians that those jets will be built in Ukraine:

www.kyivpost.com

Saab Eyes Gripen Factory in Ukraine, CEO Says

After a letter of intent was signed to make 100-150 Swedish Gripen fighters for Ukraine, the manufacturer is reportedly considering an assembly plant in Ukraine to cope with the demand.
www.kyivpost.com www.kyivpost.com

Here's what is happening. They ditched their previous partner. IMP of Halifax. They are now trying with Bombardier who has a lot more heft (politically). They are doing this because Quebec is home to the aerospace sector and a ton of F-35 subcontracts are in that province. Also helps that the Minister of Industry is a born and raised Montrealer holding a Montreal riding that would be in the commuting zone for Mirabel (where the assembly plant would be).

I hope the rest of the aerospace sector really starts speaking up about how bad any swap of the Gripen for the F-35 would be for them. Would probably kill some of them. Supremely stupid to kill high value, high intellectual content subcontract to get more low value, low IP assembly work.

If Saab wants to gift an assembly line to us, no strings attached, they are free to do it. Why don't they just come out and make that offer instead of making it hypothetical?
 
kEiThZ said:
I don't get the naivete. They can build a plant anywhere in the world. But they'll pick Canada? Why do you think that is? Meanwhile they are also telling the Ukrainians that those jets will be built in Ukraine:
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At what point did I ever seem naive? C'mon now.

I solicited your input, based on published media reports to get your take.

I didn't endorse it as fact. I reserved judgement to see what you had to say.

I take for granted if the Gripen were built here Saab would be expecting something out of it.......

kEiThZ said:
Here's what is happening. They ditched their previous partner. IMP of Halifax. They are now trying with Bombardier who has a lot more heft (politically). They are doing this because Quebec is home to the aerospace sector and a ton of F-35 subcontracts are in that province. Also helps that the Minister of Industry is a born and raised Montrealer holding a Montreal riding that would be in the commuting zone for Mirabel (where the assembly plant would be).

I hope the rest of the aerospace sector really starts speaking up about how bad any swap of the Gripen for the F-35 would be for them. Would probably kill some of them. Supremely stupid to kill high value, high intellectual content subcontract to get more low value, low IP assembly work.

If Saab wants to gift an assembly line to us, no strings attached, they are free to do it. Why don't they just come out and make that offer instead of making it hypothetical?
Click to expand...

Good info, much appreciated.
 
Put it this way. Imagine if GM basically offered to ship kits to be assembled in Oshawa, in exchange for all the parts manufacturing from their their Canadian supply chain to be moved to the US. How many of you would take that deal?

There's a 7 figure amount of Canadian subcontracts on every F-35. All of that would be at risk if we simply crash out of the program in a big way.

I think Joly is desperate. She hasn't had any good wins as Industry minister. Saab is desperate too, losing one competition after another. And honestly, the Canadian competition was actually less political, making the loss worse (cause it came on technical merits). So naturally, one desperate company is happy and eager to find the desperate politician they can use.
 
Hope the funds are actually buying some hardware, not falling into the cracks and personnel, bureaucracy or DEI spending. There should be constant and stable funding to the armed forces, or we will face the state of bad repairs like the TTC...oh wait we are already facing that.
 
Not sure if the Feds are really considering the Gripen or if they're just using it to pressure Lockheed Martin for increased economic benefits. Either way I'm not really comfortable with how much influence the Industry Minister (Joly) seems to be having in this decision. Industrial benefits matter, but a purchase as monumental as a fighter jet fleet should be almost exclusively in the purview of the DND and PMO.

1763525997014.png

OTTAWA — The Liberal government believes Canada was short changed on industrial benefits out of its contract to purchase American-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said Tuesday.

“We believe that we didn’t get enough when it comes to the F-35,” Joly told reporters on Parliament Hill.

“The industrial benefits are not enough. There needs to be more jobs created out of the F-35 contract. That’s clear to me and clear to this government.”

Joly’s comments come as the Swedish firm Saab considers whether to set up shop in Canada to build its Gripen fighter jets, dangling the prospect of adding 10,000 domestic jobs in Canada.
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When asked for comment, F-35 builder Lockheed Martin countered that it is creating economic industrial benefits within Canada — and warned that those benefits would diminish if Canada reduces the size of its order.

The company said in a media statement it expects Canada’s plan to procure 88 F-35 aircraft will produce upward of $15.5 billion in industrial value over the course of five decades, from 2007 to 2058.
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https://ottawa.citynews.ca/2025/11/18/f35-fighters-jets-canada/
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
From the Globe:
www.theglobeandmail.com

Sweden’s Saab offers to build entire GlobalEye military surveillance plane in Canada

Building the aircraft in Canada would create 3,000 jobs, company says
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com
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By this point SAAB is beginning to sound a little desperate, giving off bunny-in-the-pot vibes.
  1. Jul 2010, Canada announced its intent to purchase the F-35.
  2. Mar 2022, Canada announced that after a competitive review the F-35 was chosen over the SAAB Gripen.
  3. Dec 2022, Cabinet proceeds with contract negotiations.
  4. Jan 2023, Official government announcement to buy 88 F-35 aircraft from Lockheed Martin. Contract signed for first 4 aircraft.
  5. Aug 2023, Contract signed for additional 12 aircraft.
  6. 2024 onwards, RCAF CF-18 pilots and maintainers undergoing F-35 conversion training at Luke AFB (Arizona).
  7. 2026, first sixteen aircraft to be delivered
The time for SAAB to make their best possible offer (10,000 jobs, etc..) was before March 2022. Today is too late, Canada is well down the path with the F-35. There is no going back.

If I was SAAB I'd be worryingly looking at the KAI KF-21 Boramae. That bird is going to grab a large share of the Western-aligned non-F35 business.

www.flightglobal.com

KAI advances KF-21 export drive as fighter nears service entry

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is pursuing its first international sale of the KF-21 Boramae fighter while advancing development of a single-seat FA-50 variant and exploring an ambitious tactical transport project.
www.flightglobal.com www.flightglobal.com
 
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guavadelic said:
Not sure if the Feds are really considering the Gripen or if they're just using it to pressure Lockheed Martin for increased economic benefits. Either way I'm not really comfortable with how much influence the Industry Minister (Joly) seems to be having in this decision. Industrial benefits matter, but a purchase as monumental as a fighter jet fleet should be almost exclusively in the purview of the DND and PMO.
Click to expand...

A monumental decision? The F-35's first flight was in 2006. Next year it will be a 20-year-old design. It is outdated technology that may have been "stealthy" 20 years ago, but does anyone believe that Russia or China don't have the radar and air defenses to neutralize this overpriced aircraft?

In my perfect world, the contenders to replace Canada's aging fighter jet fleet would include the Russian SU-57 and MiG-41, or China's Chengdu J-36 or the J-XDS

Example. Russia's proposed Mach 5 MiG-41:

 
EBT said:
A monumental decision? The F-35's first flight was in 2006. Next year it will be a 20-year-old design. It is outdated technology that may have been "stealthy" 20 years ago, but does anyone believe that Russia or China don't have the radar and air defenses to neutralize this overpriced aircraft?

In my perfect world, the contenders to replace Canada's aging fighter jet fleet would include the Russian SU-57 and MiG-41, or China's Chengdu J-36 or the J-XDS

Example. Russia's proposed Mach 5 MiG-41:

Click to expand...
Your ideal fighter for the RCAF is Russian or Chinese?
 
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