Tango at Concord Park Place (Concord Adex) - Real Estate -

It should be obvious to everyone now that RIC is doing advertising for his CONDO!! While that's normal and okay. He needs to back it up with better reasoning.

Again, the biggest, gaping hole in your analysis is that you should not be doing any!!! For a project that 4 years down the road, no kind of analysis is meaningful, because no one knows what it would be like at that time!

Guys,
The cover has been blown. My 2 years (since 2008 in this forum) diabolical plot to provide you with so called “rational / logical” real estate analysis to guide you in making a so called “wise choice” and then convert you all to “buy projects I’m selling” was brilliantly unearthed by g4suaij. As such, I have no choice but to go back to my true self (that is of a typical Real Estate Agent). I’m thus advising you all to buy Condos, lots of them. Real estate always goes up. So buy now (you can also use me as your agent to purchase, the builder pays my commission). Forget about due diligence; it leads to “paralysis by analysis”. Don’t look at market fundamentals and by all means try not to project 4-6 years in the future (as nobody knows what will happen except that prices will be higher). So what if the market drops. Just sell, recover your deposit and move on to the next investment. I’m sorry I tried to brainwash you all with my BS cash flow analysis BS. I will refrain from commenting on this topic in the future. And if I do, please remind me of my promise and usher be back to my (dunce) corner.

Note to self: Never cross the path of a "CFA".
 
Last edited:
Again, the biggest, gaping hole in your analysis is that you should not be doing any!!! For a project that 4 years down the road, no kind of analysis is meaningful, because no one knows what it would be like at that time!

Wow, that's profound. You say prices always go up. Yet you contradict yourself by saying "no one knows what it would be like at that time". Man, By your reasoning, you should be the RE Agent and me the CFA.

Oh shit. I broke my no comments rule. Sorry
 
Last edited:
I agree. The lower level units at the VIP event are good investments. The risk of losing money is much smaller than the higher floors with $$$ floor premium.

I don't think it's a smart investment if someone assumes/predicts the market will be up in 4 years (based on a guess) and he/she does not care about cash flow to hold the investment until it's the right time to sell.

you are missing the point!!

To put it in very simple terms!
1. Everyone here is looking to flip as soon as interim closing hits! Then, the cash flow analysis has a much, much smaller impact on profitability than where the overall market will be! Because once you lease it out, you have to lease it for at least a year. Are you willing to hold out that long, you will have already waited 4 years, are you going to wait 5 years, 6 years? That would start to look like a GIC, where you just park your money and hope for that meager 2% interest or in your language, the + cash flow.

2. Regardless of the importance of cash flow analysis! The point is that NO ONE can make any type of accurate prediction for something as micro as rent vs. cost, 4 years down the road! Talk about "guesses", that would be a much much wilder guess than my prediction that the market would be higher in 4 years, at least mine is macro and based on the common sense that everyone has observed, that the Canadian market is generally upswinging. Similarly, predicting the GDP growth over the next 4 years, would be much easier than to predict the exact cash flow of a particular stock 4 years down the road.

3. Again, it is common sense and general knowledge that:

1. higher floors are easier to sell or flip
2. lower floors are easier to least out, since renter care less about the floor (better for holding out)

If you got into the lower floor because it's easier for leasing out, then you are probably not confident about the market , then you should not have gotten into the flipping business to begin with!!

You do have a point about the higher floor premiums, however I believe all of the 20ish building in the ParkPlace complex project will be like that! So if you are trying to flip a higher floor, you would not be at a disadvantage to those from other buildings in the complex! In terms of comparing higher to lower floor, I would say that it's sort of like different market segment. People who want 25th floor would not settle for 5th floor. Even if there is a premium.

In the case of TANGO, the higher floors are especially important for flipping because,
1. it will be blocked in the southside by a building, so the southfacing units would need to be higher to get more sunshine, this is most important since potential buyers who are buying to live are more driven by the look and feel, that this so called 'cash flow analysis'.

2. 401 is to the South, so the higher floor will be better for the noise factor. I actually did my experiment by visiting the NY Towers, compared a 5th floor unit to a 23rd floor unit, noise was much much more noticable in the 5th. Do you honestly think, people are going to want live with all that noise just to save $20K on a 400k condo?

3. Again, as a flipper you are selling to someone who wants to live there, so the 9' ceiling would be much more important than you and I. I am saying that the 10K premium is cheap, but it is definitely not expensive either.
2.
 
Wow, that's profound. You say prices always go up. Yet you contradict yourself by saying "no one knows what it would be like at that time". Man, By your reasoning, you should be the RE Agent and me the CFA.

Oh shit. I broke my no comments rule. Sorry

Now you are getting into the semantics and starting to bicker. who is the agent and who is the CFA isn't important.

Let's concentrate on the big picture here!
 
Guys,
The cover has been blown. My 2 years (since 2008 in this forum) diabolical plot to provide you with so called “rational / logical” real estate analysis to guide you in making a so called “wise choice” and then convert you all to “buy projects I’m selling” was brilliantly unearthed by g4suaij. As such, I have no choice but to go back to my true self (that is of a typical Real Estate Agent). I’m thus advising you all to buy Condos, lots of them. Real estate always goes up. So buy now (you can also use me as your agent to purchase, the builder pays my commission). Forget about due diligence; it leads to “paralysis by analysis”. Don’t look at market fundamentals and by all means try not to project 4-6 years in the future (as nobody knows what will happen except that prices will be higher). So what if the market drops. Just sell, recover your deposit and move on to the next investment. I’m sorry I tried to brainwash you all with my BS cash flow analysis BS. I will refrain from commenting on this topic in the future. And if I do, please remind me of my promise and usher be back to my (dunce) corner.

Note to self: Never cross the path of a "CFA".

Please don't get agitated! It is normal for an agent to advertise! nothing to with being 'diabolitical'.

I am merely pointing out that this cash flow analyisis of yours is flawed, because something like that is too micro to pinpoint to any kind of reasonable accuracy for something 4 years down the road.

To use my earlier example, no one predicts stock prices in 4 years because that's pure stupidity! But there are lots of accurate and reasonable prediction on the overall market 4 years down the road!
 
So I assume you're bullish that Bayview and Sheppard will be worth over $500 psf by 2014? Currently downtown is reselling around 440-520 psf with parking depending on the age of the building.

Tango at 28 fl 688 sq ft + parking is $493.6 psf. With each floor higher, you're paying more psf.
 
So I assume you're bullish that Bayview and Sheppard will be worth over $500 psf by 2014? Currently downtown is reselling around 440-520 psf with parking depending on the age of the building.

Tango at 28 fl 688 sq ft + parking is $493.6 psf. With each floor higher, you're paying more psf.

I am not too sure where u r getting ur numbers from! You can't compare higher floors to lower floors. To use a real example, the recent 5 Condo downtown STARTS at 550, TANGO starts at roughly $380. If you compare 28th floor of Tango at 493, I would say the similar floor at 5 condo would be at least 650.

Where are you getting this 500 psf in the bay/shep area from?
 
So I assume you're bullish that Bayview and Sheppard will be worth over $500 psf by 2014? Currently downtown is reselling around 440-520 psf with parking depending on the age of the building.

Tango at 28 fl 688 sq ft + parking is $493.6 psf. With each floor higher, you're paying more psf.

To further my point, you need to compare new projects to new projects! Please find me one new project downtown that's selling for 440!
 
4suaij,

I think you are really missing my point. Nobody here is talking about renting out thier Tango unit and becoming a landlord. The analysis I'm talking about is just a "built-in" device to protect investors if the market turns. That's all. Not to play my hand, but I've flipped over 15 properties since 2006 and everyone would have provided me with a +ve cash flow if the market had turned and forced me to rent. Luckily the market has been good to me. Although I would like to think that my "luck" was self inflicted. Look, between 2003-2008 anyone with half a brain could have made money from RE.

It's only when the "tide goes out, that we find out who is swimming without a shorts" ......Warren Buffet I think
 
4suaij,

I think you are really missing my point. Nobody here is talking about renting out thier Tango unit and becoming a landlord. The analysis I'm talking about is just a "built-in" device to protect investors if the market turns. That's all. Not to play my hand, but I've flipped over 15 properties since 2006 and everyone would have provided me with a +ve cash flow if the market had turned and forced me to rent. Luckily the market has been good to me. Although I would like to think that my "luck" was self inflicted. Look, between 2003-2008 anyone with half a brain could have made money from RE.

It's only when the "tide goes out, that we find out who is swimming without a shorts" ......Warren Buffet I think

Well, as we seem to be in "let's bring out the qualification" mode, I have flipped over 20 properties in the past 10 years all have been profitable, some more, some less. And like you, i would say it's generall due to good market conditions.

That's why the biggest factor in flipping is general market conditions, not this "built in mechnism", if the market does turn, as long as the 400k is still 400k, most experienced flippers, as you say you are, would be included to take a little loss so life move on.

U seemed to have dabbed in the stock maarket as well, so I would compare your "holding out" strategy to a guy who desperately holds on to one stock even though there are other much more profitable opportunities around, his reason, he stands to take a little loss if sells that one stock!!
 
U seemed to have dabbed in the stock maarket as well, so I would compare your "holding out" strategy to a guy who desperately holds on to one stock even though there are other much more profitable opportunities around, his reason, he stands to take a little loss if sells that one stock!!
No, I close all my trades (including FOREX) at the end of each day

I also own several properties that return 7-10% per year and I'm happy with that "holding out " strategy.
 
Last edited:
I am not too sure where u r getting ur numbers from! You can't compare higher floors to lower floors. To use a real example, the recent 5 Condo downtown STARTS at 550, TANGO starts at roughly $380. If you compare 28th floor of Tango at 493, I would say the similar floor at 5 condo would be at least 650.

Where are you getting this 500 psf in the bay/shep area from?

I mean 500 psf in 2014. If you're gonna buy at $493 psf now, I would assume you are bullish when completed the area will sell for $500 psf. Otherwise you will lose money.

As for condos downtown. They start pretty high. That is why I question people buying downtown right now. In 2008, 38th fl of ICE sold at $618 psf with parking and locker before the dip. I don't think that's a low floor. The starting prices were around $525 psf.

I notice Pinnacle on Adelaide price starts around $560 psf w/o parking and locker (12th floor). The area in construction is selling around $800 psf. I question who would buy at these insane prices.
 
No, I close all my trades (including FOREX) at the end of each day

Now we are talking!

If you are experienced, then you should know flippers usually closeout their trade as soon as the assignment period starts, even if they just break even or even suffer little loss! Which again leads to my point, and to all the wanta be flippers in this forum, if you wanta flip, then don't worry too much about this 'cash flow' stuff. Just take the money and move on to something else.
 
I mean 500 psf in 2014. If you're gonna buy at $493 psf now, I would assume you are bullish when completed the area will sell for $500 psf. Otherwise you will lose money.

As for condos downtown. They start pretty high. That is why I question people buying downtown right now. In 2008, 38th fl of ICE sold at $618 psf with parking and locker before the dip. I don't think that's a low floor. The starting prices were around $525 psf.

I notice Pinnacle on Adelaide price starts around $560 psf w/o parking and locker (12th floor). The area in construction is selling around $800 psf. I question who would buy at these insane prices.

I think we are getting on the same page here, I think the prices at TANGO are still very reasonable compared to downtown and that's why I bought into it. Especailly when the shep/bayview area is still growing and downtown is already mature.

In terms of bullishness, Let me use a slight variation of my earlier example, most people here bought a unit around $300K with 20% or 60k down payment. The question to ask yourself is, do you think your unit will be worth 330K in 2004, this is only a very conservative growth of 2.5% (compare to last decade where prices have moved 10% per year) per year for the next 4 years, if so then you are making 50% on your original 60K investment.

There is of course cost like assignment and interest payment and stuff but again my example is very conservative, you do your own math if the average growth is 5% or 10%.
 
the $300k with parking is for lower floors. It's about $340k for 28fl with parking. Hence $493 psf. I think there might be slight misconception on your side? You assume the price you purchase is the current market price at $493 psf. and each year there will be 2.5% growth for next 4 years. I think what should be considered is, what is the current market price right now for existing condos? Assuming it increases 2.5% per year, you will have the price of condos in 2014. I don't know the Bayview and Sheppard area very well so I don't know what is the current prices and I can't say what it will be in 2014. But it's something to contemplate.
 

Back
Top