Sheppard Subway money pit?

[rbtaylor]

I've been trying to figure out just what kind of a hit the TTC took with Sheppard. If we assume that the capital has been covered in the form of indirect revenue (taxes raised by the province and city as a result), we're left with operational subsidies.

The important number is how it compares to the old bus service in hard dollars and not whether the line is operationally profitable (beating the old bus service makes it a net gain).

Facts from TTC Reports:
www.ttc.ca/postings/gso-c.../_conv.htm
www.ttc.ca/postings/gso-c.../_conv.htm
- TTC indicates Sheppard required an additional $6.9M in operational expenses after factoring in savings from bus route rearrangements.
- In May 2004 it carried 41650 trips per weekday, 13500 on Saturdays, and 10900 on Sundays.
- The old bus routes along Sheppard corridor carried 25400 trips per weekday, 12300 on Saturday, and 9400 on Sundays.
- There was a net reduction of 9 busses in the morning and 8 in afternoon peeks between all routes intersecting Sheppard. The rest of the old 85 Sheppard buses went to beef up service connecting to the subway (say 3060 daily trips on a weekday -- no change on a weekend).
- TTC gives each trip approximately a $1.65 dollar value (transit passes reduce the $2 token value)

Assumptions:
- TTC doesn't have buses to improve connecting service. All new rides are either exclusive to the Sheppard / Yonge subways or improve the fare recovery ratio of the connecting bus route. Because of this 50% or more of the $1.65 can be granted to Sheppard.
- Sheppard corridor growth would have maintained cost recovery ratios if the Sheppard subway did not exist. That is, new growth would not have improved the fare recovery ratio. After a certain point TTC seems to collect a constant recovery rate on high volume bus routes (between 50 and 65%).
- Sheppard costs the exact same to operate today as it did when it first opened. The train schedule has been reduced from when it opened which probably offsets inflation enough to make this true.


In May 2004 we have approx $4.25 to $8.5M in new revenue within the Sheppard corridor depending on whether we give Sheppard 50% of new revenue or 100% respectively:

((41650 - 25400 + 3060) * 5 days + (13500 - 12300) + (10900 - 9400)) * 52 weeks * 1.65

That means in May 2004 Sheppard was a loss of $2.65M per year to a profit of $1.6M per year as compared to the previous bus service.

Worst case (50% new revenue alloted to Sheppard) we need 53000 daily rides to break even with the old bus system.

It has been nearly 2 years since the 41650 count was taken. Given development in the area I think it is safe to assume 50000 riders per day has been reached -- close to breaking even in the worst case scenario.


Any thoughts on how far off this is?

 

[Mike in TO]

On benifit to consider is the amount of development along the Sheppard corridor as well as the amount of new development still in the pipeline.

Subway construction is a first step in some cases towards long term intensification and city building.

 

[Chuck100]

Remember that prior to the subway, the buses were also operating at a loss, say x. The TTC is saying that despite saving money from running fewer busses, it requires $6.9M extra to operate the subway compared to when it just ran buses. Therefore the total operating loss equals the bus operating loss, x, plus an additional $6.9M.

Assuming your calculations are correct, then 53000 daily riders allows the TTC to operate the subway at no additional cost relative to previous bus service. Therefore an additional ridership above and beyond 53000 is required to eat into that initial operating loss x and truly result in profitability.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

"It has been nearly 2 years since the 41650 count was taken. Given development in the area I think it is safe to assume 50000 riders per day has been reached -- close to breaking even in the worst case scenario."

Based on the increased volume of passengers I've seen on the line, I'd definitely say ridership is well over 50,000 if almost two years ago it was 41650.

"The train schedule has been reduced from when it opened which probably offsets inflation enough to make this true."

They really should start running the trains more frequently (they tend to wait at Yonge or Don Mills for 5 minutes or so) since more people will switch to the line if it helps them shave even a couple of minutes off their commute. The trains always leave just as the crowd from the Yonge trains (the crowd seems to be growing monthly and Sheppard station now seems almost as busy as Eglinton station) arrive on the Sheppard platform so unless you run you're always forced to wait 5 minutes...one or possibly two more Yonge trains have arrived by then, resulting in occasional overcrowding. If they're at all interested in ridership growth, artifically creating crush loads and leaving people behind on the platform to wait for the next one isn't helping. How much more would it cost to up the frequency slightly? They wouldn't need more trains or employees since they're just waiting around.

Another 'rocket' route that goes along Finch (the current express runs locally between Neilson and the 404) might also significantly pad the numbers for the subway while boosting overall ridership in the area as the 190 has done. Theoretically, riders can be diverted from the RT using a Finch Rocket, but only if the Finch Rocket is substantially more reliable than the 190. I'm not sure anything can be done to capture Steeles East or York Mills riders, though, without extending the subway east of Don Mills.

"On benifit to consider is the amount of development along the Sheppard corridor as well as the amount of new development still in the pipeline."

Especially if the Canadian Tire complex (which alone might justify Bessarion station) and the massive proposal for the Parkway Forest area are both built - there could be, oh, 30,000 more people living within a 5 minute walk of the subway in the near future.

 

[rdaner]

Is the GO station at Leslie Station open yet? What is the expected impact on subway ridership?

 

[Ed007Toronto]

The Go stop is next to and under the 401. Its be open for years. One closer to Leslie station wasn't built when Leslie station was built. No money I guess. Currently you have to leave the Go station and walk a couple of blocks to get to Leslie Station. I'd be surprised if many use this option. If you're coming from Richmond Hill you might as well just go to Finch.

 

[rbtaylor]

Remember that prior to the subway, the buses were also operating at a loss, say x. The TTC is saying that despite saving money from running fewer busses, it requires $6.9M extra to operate the subway compared to when it just ran buses. Therefore the total operating loss equals the bus operating loss, x, plus an additional $6.9M.

Yes. I was just comparing to the old bus service. I really have no idea how much it cost to run the previous bus service or what the subsidy is currently for Sheppard.

What we do know is that the total operational dollars are approximately equal for 2001 and 2006 service, ridership is way up (~4 times higher), and Sheppard has far more future capacity.

Looks much more like a good decision than a white elephant to me.

 

[bizorky]

Invest, finish the line, make it a useful and continuous system.

 

[Chuck100]

Oriole GO station is being extended a bit to the north. This is probably due in part to all the stations on the Richmond Hill line being renovated and lengthened slightly to accomodate 10 car trainsets. I'm quite sure that a walkway is being built to connect GO to the TTC as well.

As a former rider, I can say that providing the TTC-GO connection is not going to spur any ridership increases for the TTC. About 5 people per train get off at Oriole from points north in the morning, which is virtually no one. People who commute between any two of Richmond Hill, Thornhill, and Willowdale drive, let alone pay a double fare twice by using much slower local transit.

If anything, providing such an easy connection to GO will encourage people to get off the subway and transfer to the train if they know that based on the schedule, a train is on the way. 40 minutes downtown by TTC vs 16 minutes by GO train, if you don't mind spending an extra 3 bucks, the choice is obvious.

 

[Ed007Toronto]

I took the train out to Don Mills this morning at 9:30. I was surprised at the number of people coming and going out of the station.

 

[Darkstar416]

If anything, providing such an easy connection to GO will encourage people to get off the subway and transfer to the train if they know that based on the schedule, a train is on the way. 40 minutes downtown by TTC vs 16 minutes by GO train, if you don't mind spending an extra 3 bucks, the choice is obvious.

One of the many reasons why the GTA should be zoned and that all transit within a zone (whether TTC, GO, YRT, VIA, etc) should be the same fare.