Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[micheal_can]

Worth noting that the federal conservatives adopted a motion at their last party convention - 2023 - to support the development of high speed rail in Canada. This is entirely a symbolic gesture but it is one that acts as a pretty good barometer for what kind of policy is within acceptance among the CPC base.

There is no telling what the CPC will actually do come 2025. If PP wants to materialize his promised tax cuts across the spectrum that sounds like spending cuts will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting. PP has also talked about getting rid of the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

On the other hand, he has also expressed his admiration for the Hong Kong MTR and talked extensively about land use around stations being used to fund transit. But I don't think PP realizes all MTR projects within Hong Kong are constructed by the government, which funds projects primarily through land sales. MTR is then granted a lease on the infrastructure which was built by the government.

That is because AB is pursuing HSR between Calgary and Edmonton.

 

[Sunnyside]

There is more than hope.

****

Also I might pay more attention to the Scarborough meeting location...

So I’m gonna ask what you’ve been hoping someone would: why is consultation happening so far east?

The location is the Chinese Cultural Centre of Greater Toronto, which is located at Progress/Sheppard. No previous plan has suggested going past McCowan… and while it’s catchment will be large, this is 2kms away.

I’ll stop circling the point- I think they’re studying going further east. But why? This is what sticks for me:

1. To supplant all or part of Eglinton East/ Line 7.

2. We are ignoring the demand drop off past Warden (as per members here) to reach McCowan. That lower demand is likely sustained well past, so a business case is largely the same.

This is interesting because EE shows demand exists. The Ford government doesn’t like LRTs as-is, but also recall that it relegated EE to the City; there’s no longer a provincial-level conflict between funding it or Line 4. They can act blind.

I do find this a better “rapid” transit solution, and It also addresses the linear transfer on Sheppard. It could be done via a technology change or just as a political play. But, you (NL) have hinted at the former slightly more than the latter. Regardless of if members are paying you heed, clearly something unexpected is happening.

 

[Northern Light]

So I’m gonna ask what you’ve been hoping someone would: why is consultation happening so far east?

I don't know that I was hoping any such thing.............as I've said about all I can publicly.

I was hoping people would pay attention to what I said though......

 

[Coolibop]

clearly something unexpected is happening.

I'm not sure unexpected is the right word here... The government was always considered studying all the way to Meadowvale as some form of rapid transit... It has been discussed here many times how the EELRT may not fit that criteria given the number of stops/speed.

I would also consider that the city would not balk at the province picking up the bill...

I looked back, but couldn't find. Where was discussion re: no need beyond Warden?

 

[chrisw]

To add some facts. The first round of consultations also had the first meeting at the Chinese Cultural Centre of Greater Toronto, which is located at Progress/Sheppard.

The study area goes all the way to Meadowvale which is 7.5km east of Sheppard. Supplanting Eglinton East is definitely an option.

 

[Sunnyside]

I'm not sure unexpected is the right word here... The government was always considered studying all the way to Meadowvale as some form of rapid transit... It has been discussed here many times how the EELRT may not fit that criteria given the number of stops/speed.

I would also consider that the city would not balk at the province picking up the bill...

I looked back, but couldn't find. Where was discussion re: no need beyond Warden?

I'll look myself for who/when it was stated, as I could shoot tags in the dark at who might've said it, but I don't want to tag anyone needlessly. It might've been a debate I got into, so I'll skim my replies after this.

In the meantime, I do recall the general argument; a pessimistic (but knowledgable) someone mentioned that the most justifiable extension was to VP, maybe Warden, because of the massive employment node at Consumers and larger ridership numbers on the VP and Warden buses. Past that point, ridership did not justify a subway extension.

I happened to disagree with that method of assessment, but this general principle of demand falling off past Warden today seems plausible enough. Anything beyond saw diminishing returns, especially seeing as the impacts of an RER-level Stouffville line connection are hard to predict (especially for laypeople).

 

[Haljackey]

Just keep the Sheppard subway TBMs churning east past McCowan. Could keep going to Meadowvale as indicated, or perhaps even further east to the 401 terminating at the Pickering GO station.

If you wanna change the suburban hellscape, this is a way to do that.

If you kept boring west past Shepard West station you could eventually reach Woodboi racetrack and then Peason.

Pipe dream? It certainly involves some big pipes haha

 

[Northern Light]

I'll look myself for who/when it was stated, as I could shoot tags in the dark at who might've said it, but I don't want to tag anyone needlessly. It might've been a debate I got into, so I'll skim my replies after this.

In the meantime, I do recall the general argument; a pessimistic (but knowledgable) someone mentioned that the most justifiable extension was to VP, maybe Warden, because of the massive employment node at Consumers and larger ridership numbers on the VP and Warden buses. Past that point, ridership did not justify a subway extension.

I happened to disagree with that method of assessment, but this general principle of demand falling off past Warden today seems plausible enough. Anything beyond saw diminishing returns, especially seeing as the impacts of an RER-level Stouffville line connection are hard to predict (especially for laypeople).

1) Read your PMs, LOL

2) If you were only looking at Sheppard as it is today, and/or based on known, approved proposals.................the case would be to go to Kennedy/Stouffville GO. The huge intensification of the Agincourt Mall site is a bit driver there, but so is the fact that everything south to the 401 on the east side of Kennedy is going as well. Plus you would have passengers wanting to transfer to/from the GO line.

3) Subways in Toronto are not built, for the most part, to serve what's there.........they're built to serve what could be there.........

That being the case, one may wish to examine both existing demand drivers, but also potential drivers..........to ascertain where one may wish to send the subway.

Final thought, linear thinking can be important........but so can thinking outside the straight line.

 

[Northern Light]

Just keep the Sheppard subway TBMs churning east past McCowan. Could keep going to Meadowvale as indicated, or perhaps even further east to the 401 terminating at the Pickering GO station.

If you wanna change the suburban hellscape, this is a way to do that.

If you kept boring west past Shepard West station you could eventually reach Woodboi racetrack and then Peason.

Pipe dream? It certainly involves some big pipes haha

The subway will not be going to Meadowvale and Sheppard, LOL

 

[Coolibop]

I'll look myself for who/when it was stated, as I could shoot tags in the dark at who might've said it, but I don't want to tag anyone needlessly. It might've been a debate I got into, so I'll skim my replies after this.

In the meantime, I do recall the general argument; a pessimistic (but knowledgable) someone mentioned that the most justifiable extension was to VP, maybe Warden, because of the massive employment node at Consumers and larger ridership numbers on the VP and Warden buses. Past that point, ridership did not justify a subway extension.

I happened to disagree with that method of assessment, but this general principle of demand falling off past Warden today seems plausible enough. Anything beyond saw diminishing returns, especially seeing as the impacts of an RER-level Stouffville line connection are hard to predict (especially for laypeople).

Thanks... Yeah was just curious, because I would have thought agincourt go and the post secondary institutions past (Warden) would draw numbers. Also there are a number of developments East of Warden (agincourt mall and other vacant land/strip malls beyond come to mind).

Edit: since we got another hint... Maybe add in centenary/the BRT route?

 

[nfitz]

Just keep the Sheppard subway TBMs churning east past McCowan. Could keep going to Meadowvale as indicated, or perhaps even further east to the 401 terminating at the Pickering GO station.

If you wanna change the suburban hellscape, this is a way to do that.

If you kept boring west past Shepard West station you could eventually reach Woodboi racetrack and then Peason.

Pipe dream? It certainly involves some big pipes haha

Why not ask the way to Cobourg?

The tunnels are the cheap part of this. Even the emergency exits add a lot.

 

[Coolibop]

straight line.

But.... But... Thats outside of the study area!

Edit: Never mind.. I didn't realize how wide of an area was being considered... Ps keep going everyone... @Northern Light will eventually spill all the beans!

OK ok so are we going north to Malvern or south to centennial? ... Starting bid at $50...do I have $50?

 

[drum118]

Here a thought that will not please some.

What happens if ML goes back to the original idea of building the subway to Victoria Park and it becomes an LRT to the east?? As far as I am concern, this would be the right choice as the ridership is not there now, come 2050 or at all to support a subway. The extra cost to build the subway can be put to better use either in Toronto to improve service or the GTA since funding is not there these day.

There been a number of new development built the last few years on Sheppard with small gains in ridership that doesn't support an BRT, let alone LRT. There been plans for a number of sites over the years and they haven't got off the ground that they been flip a number of times or just sitting there after the sales office close for lack of buyers.

You got the large development at Victoria Park that will use the subway going west to either to the OL, the Yonge Line, or the GO line with the GO being the main choice. The plan development at Kennedy will see riders go east to Line 2 or to Kennedy, but more so the GO line.

 

[chrisw]

OK ok so are we going north to Malvern or south to centennial? ... Starting bid at $50...do I have $50?

Well, we could go North to Malvern and past that to the Toronto Zoo. "The Toronto Zoo is open every day, all year!"

 

[Haljackey]

Here a thought that will not please some.

What happens if ML goes back to the original idea of building the subway to Victoria Park and it becomes an LRT to the east?? As far as I am concern, this would be the right choice as the ridership is not there now, come 2050 or at all to support a subway. The extra cost to build the subway can be put to better use either in Toronto to improve service or the GTA since funding is not there these day.

Because people don't want to transfer from a subway to a LRT on the 'same' line. They've started with a subway, so while it not make the most financial sense, it's the most logical sense to continue the subway line to avoid confusion and the inconvenience of changing trains that will deter riders.

I think just about everyone agrees that a subway was the incorrect choice for Sheppard, but it's there now and here we are trying to do something to improve it. East and west connections to connect it to the other subway lines is what makes the most sense.