Rob Ford - Why the Supervillian?

[toto]

Watched part of a CP24 all candidates' debate earlier this week. Ford was way out of his element. Reminded me of quiet John Baird. Only less intelligent. If that's possible. Thing I don't understand is that they both keep getting elected.

 

[js97]

Sometimes you have to break it down before you can build it up..

So much of the council is so corrupt and incompetent that I'm begining to think a Rob Ford Belly splash for 4 years might be enough to retire all the councillors and start fresh!

 

[Torontovibe]

I had a discussion with someone last night who is fairly competent over city issues, but who is planning on voting for Rob Ford. I pointed out all of the ways that he is logically and reasonably the worst person for the job, but the person I was talking to just kept giggling at the idea of RF basically effing stuff up. I have a feeling this is where the core of RF's support comes from - people who actually hate the city and sort of want it to be destroyed.

I really believe that too. I know a number of people who live in Toronto, yet take great pleasure putting it down every chance they get. One of my friends keeps threatening to move to Montreal but years go by and he's still here. (due to his job, he says) I know there are a lot of suburbanites that want to punish Toronto, for one reason or another. I don't think most of those people actually vote (they just constantly complain) but if they come out in droves, this city is screwed!

I used to work for a large company, in downtown Toronto, and I was the only one I knew, who lived downtown. I was shocked at the anti-Toronto comments I heard on a daily basis. (about homeless people, socialism, dirty streets, corrupt politicians, taxes and all kinds of anti city views) This was all mainly from people who lived in the burbs of the city, but had no love for Toronto. People told me many times, that I was crazy for living downtown. That was about 7 years ago, before downtown became cool.

It's amazing how different areas of the city have such different views. I wish the "Meggacity" bullshit never happened. I'd be quite happy for former city of Toronto to go it alone.
Urban and suburban issues are very different.

(And for sure the Gardiner would be history!)

 

[Red Mosquito]

Where have the votes been cast in the previous 4 elections? Have they been split between the core and the suburbs? My gut feeling is that the core votes in greater numbers, but i really dont know. If Etobicoke, Scarbourough and North York come out in droves, then Ford has a chance.

 

[Torontovibe]

I also have the feeling that people who live in the core, come out in higher numbers but that's just a guess. Anybody got stats on that?

 

[nfitz]

So much of the council is so corrupt and incompetent ...

Where do you get this? I've seen little signs of corruption in Toronto politics. In terms of competence, Ford tends to be bottom of the pile ... so I hardly see how this is a solution!

 

[Parkdalian]

I also have the feeling that people who live in the core, come out in higher numbers but that's just a guess. Anybody got stats on that?

From a quick look at the wikipedia page for the last election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2006

It appears that suburban and urban have some difference, but not a major difference in terms of voter turnout. Etobicoke and North York look like one of the worst areas for voter turnout - about 10,000 to 12,000 votes for some wards. Scarborough appears to be better. Some downtown wards like one of the Parkdale wards, and St Pauls have "big" turnouts of close to 17,000 to 18,000 people. (BTW, didn't know that John Sewell ran for St Paul's or that Case Ootes won by only 20 votes. The things you learn from wikipedia!)

I'll leave the exact calculations to someone else, but a basic guesstimate for the potential voter turnout for the suburbs is prob 250,000 for the suburbs and about 300,000 for the "city". Not skewed enough to the city to make a RF victory impossible, but he does have a bit of an uphill battle. David Miller got 333,000 votes last time and nearly 60% of the vote.

It should be pointed out that RF is not even a runaway success in his home turf. He got 66% of the vote in the last election - respectable, but not particularly mindblowing for an incumbent. Adam Giambrone got about the same percentage, and neither of them are as popular as Joe Pantalone is in his ward (77%). And that despised public figure, Sandra Bussin, received 2,000 more votes than Rob Ford in the last election.

 

[Parkdalian]

Ooo. Interesting map here. Toronto mayoral map from 2003:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG

In 2003, John Tory won most of the suburbs (plus the North Toronto wards) and Miller won the downtown areas plus some of the poorer suburban wards like York West (Jane + Finch). My vote count for the split was roughly accurate even if it doesn't refer to the right areas - David Miller got about 300,000 votes, Tory 260,000. In all of this talk of RF being the "suburban" candidate, we forget that the suburbs are increasingly poor relative to the downtown wards. Lower income voters don't always like penny pinching candidates because those candidates pinch away the services they rely on. And RF's appeal is not really translatable to the Rosedale and Forest Hill set, as Tory's was.

 

[nfitz]

And that despised public figure, Sandra Bussin, received 2,000 more votes than Rob Ford in the last election.

Despised? Only 5 other councillors got a bigger percentage of the vote than Bussin; and none of those faced as near as many challengers

I'm in her ward, and I've never really heard any complaints by my neighbours.

This "despised" thing seems to come from some very right-wing folks ... which means they won't get far ... a blue sign is a rare site in this ward.

 

[adma]

I think that Parkdalian's reflexively referring to Fresh Start's judgment of Bussin, rather than his own. (Another candidate who's frequently portrayed in UT as more "despised" than he actually is: Adam Vaughan.)

Incidentally, re high turnout in 2006: remember that isome wards had competitive open races (incl. said "one of the parkdale wards")

 

[Parkdalian]

^Yah, I meant all of FS et al's constant trashing of Bussin, rather than my personal opinion of her. She seems well-liked in her riding even after her gaffes this year (the radio call-in show was sort of a doozy...). I should have put despised in quotation marks.

And I agree that competitiveness definitely drives voter turnout, so all of this is very hand-wavey. This year could be a replay of 2003, but the underwhelming nature of the candidates could also keep turnout low.

 

[kettal]

But but but Sue-Ann Levy told me so!!

 

[SimonP]

One thing that might hurt Ford, and the other right wingers, is that 6 of the 7 seats without incumbents are in wards that Miller won both times. (Wards 14, 19, 22, 27, 29, and 36). Most of these have competitive races that will push up turnout, and this will benefit any left leaning mayoral candidate. The only right leaning ward without an incumbent is Ford's own Ward 2.

 

[Oliver Tweed]

I've changed my mind about Ford recently. I used to think that his focus on cutting spending was a good thing and that maybe it's what's needed to balance out seven years of Miller, but now I feel that he's a one trick pony and that it takes a lot more than cutting costs to be a good mayor.

 

[js97]

I've changed my mind about Ford recently. I used to think that his focus on cutting spending was a good thing and that maybe it's what's needed to balance out seven years of Miller, but now I feel that he's a one trick pony and that it takes a lot more than cutting costs to be a good mayor.

Does that mean you've moved yourself to Rossi's camp?