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Rob Ford and the Toronto Consensus

p.s. I spoke to many Ford supporters including card carrying conservatives and few thought he would be a good mayor for the city. However, many thought he would be good for 1 term to 'shake things up' in a complacent council that's been shifting too far 'left'. 2 years away from the municipal election, will see who's name shows up again. P.S. if Shelly Caroll or Giambrone runs, I can almost guarantee you a second term Ford admin

If they really believed that Ford would be good, then they made a pretty stupid choice. Is there no one among the conservative cohort who thought "do we seriously want to be associated with this guy, and do we really want him to be running the city?"

That should have been followed by "can't we find someone else?"

Other than instilling a higher degree of divisiveness, the "shake things up" strategy has failed miserably.
 
I'm wondering why people keep bringing up John Tory in these discussions. The guy had some odd ideas in his last campaign, he's never won a high profile election, and worst of all, he supported Ford! I don't get the love for the guy.
 
Well, well, well... Rob Ford's approval rating is rising! Up 6%.

Oh no! End of the world! He's trying to destroy this city! And he's fat!

Seems like Urban Toronto isn't representative of the feelings of Toronto as a whole.
 
The poll was paid for by The Toronto Sun. The questions were based on 3-way races, where the opposition would be split.

No, it's an approval rating. It isn't about how he would do against other candidates, though the approval rating obviously has some bearing on how he would do in an election.

I'm not sure how Ford is actually doing in the city as a whole. Obviously almost everybody I talk to is appalled by him and would never dream of voting for him, but most of those people felt the same way about him during the last campaign. There are clearly some people who are embarrassed about their previous vote and wouldn't vote for him again, but are there enough to make a difference? Frankly, like Mike Harris, I don't think his policies are that unpopular with the voters he needs to win. If he is going to lose at this point, it's going to be on competence. His handling of the the transit issue has been a debacle, so that won't help him, but I suppose his supporters could point to his relatively easy contract settlement with the major unions as an example of him getting things done. He will obviously run against the council next time, which isn't a terrible strategy for him. It worked for Harry Truman and Bill Clinton, and it may well work for Barack Obama this year. I'd still bet against Ford for re-election, assuming a decent opponent, but a win isn't as inconceivable as some may hope.

The most important thing for his opponents to remember is that the personal stuff (his weight, his educational history, his criminal record, his extreme ideas) won't matter next time. It almost never does against an incumbent; look at Bush in 2004, Harris in 1999, or Harper in 2008. People knew all this stuff last election and they didn't care. He will win or lose on his performance this term, and it'll take a few more debacles to put him firmly in the political grave.
 
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Looks like the strong antipathy for Ford is mostly holding sway in the city core. Elsewhere he's holding up fairly well. It's a remarkably sharp divide, however. For his part, Ford exploits that divide at every turn. Can't say I like the man but I admire his tenacity and his canny instincts to campaign.
 
If they really believed that Ford would be good, then they made a pretty stupid choice. Is there no one among the conservative cohort who thought "do we seriously want to be associated with this guy, and do we really want him to be running the city?"
y.

I could say the same thing about the Liberal cohorts and their support of Smitherman, or the NDP and their support of Giambrone, Olivia Chow, etc.

it's politics, you go with whoever will get you in power.
 
If they really believed that Ford would be good, then they made a pretty stupid choice. Is there no one among the conservative cohort who thought "do we seriously want to be associated with this guy, and do we really want him to be running the city?"

That should have been followed by "can't we find someone else?"

Other than instilling a higher degree of divisiveness, the "shake things up" strategy has failed miserably.

Rob Ford was elected because he promised to crush the unions. That was the number one election issue. I knew people who vote NDP provincially and federally who were so pissed off at the unions they voted for Ford almost reflexively.

In fact, if Ford had just stuck to guns on fighting organized labour, and pushing for austerity -- no matter how bullshit his election math was -- he'd probably be one of the most popular mayor's in the city's history right now.

Of course, Ford is too much of a moron who doesn't know what he doesn't know. If he had the mental capacity to know his own weaknesses and stay out of things he has no competency in -- like transit -- and also have the political sense to make at least a token appearance at Pride, he'd be coasting right now.

I strongly believe that there is a fiscally conservative undercurrent in Toronto. And a very strong socially progressive undercurrent, that overlaps.

A fiscally conservative, socially progressive mayor (Karen Stintz, maybe?) is what the city needs/wants. It is most unfortunate that the slate always seems to be lined up along the lines of social progressive+socialist and fiscal conservative+social conservative.

WARNING: Belly aching rant ahead ...

There once was a time when one could find that idyllic balance between small government, pro-market and social progressivism (ie. Wilfred Laurier). But ever since, the Liberal Party has decided to become a cheap imitation of the NDP, distancing itself from it's historical support for liberal markets and instead embracing Fabian social democratic values -- which are properly the dominon of the NDP. And that's of course why the Liberal Party is dying.
 
A fiscally conservative, socially progressive mayor (Karen Stintz, maybe?) is what the city needs/wants. It is most unfortunate that the slate always seems to be lined up along the lines of social progressive+socialist and fiscal conservative+social conservative.

Always?!? John Tory wasn't a socon (neither was Jane Pitfield, for that matter). Even Mayor Mel wasn't in that kind of deep end--and as for the "homophobic" Art Eggleton types of yore, that was a different era and a different culture, and even Art Eggleton realizes it now...
 
Always?!? John Tory wasn't a socon (neither was Jane Pitfield, for that matter). Even Mayor Mel wasn't in that kind of deep end--and as for the "homophobic" Art Eggleton types of yore, that was a different era and a different culture, and even Art Eggleton realizes it now...

Touché. But John Tory was really a rarity in today's political climate. And he absolutely killed himself by having no political sense and pushing that religious schools issue.
 
There once was a time when one could find that idyllic balance between small government, pro-market and social progressivism (ie. Wilfred Laurier). But ever since, the Liberal Party has decided to become a cheap imitation of the NDP, distancing itself from it's historical support for liberal markets and instead embracing Fabian social democratic values -- which are properly the dominon of the NDP. And that's of course why the Liberal Party is dying.

That's a pretty retrospective justification. If anything, the Liberal party is somewhat to the right of where it was earlier and the Chretien government is just about as close to reasonably fiscally conservative (albeit preserving valuable social programs like Medicare) and socially liberal as you're going to get. Back when they were somewhat closer to Fabianism (though still far from it), they won a good plurality of the vote in every single election between 1962 and 1984. With the exception of the last two Diefenbaker wins, it was every election between 1930 and 1984.
 
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That's a pretty retrospective justification. If anything, the Liberal party is somewhat to the right of where it was earlier and the Chretien government is just about as close to reasonably fiscally conservative (albeit preserving valuable social programs like Medicare) and socially liberal as you're going to get. Back when they were somewhat closer to Fabianism (though still far from it), they won a good plurality of the vote in every single election between 1962 and 1984.

The Chretien government was easily the most fiscally conservative federal government of my lifetime. But it wasn't by design. It was a combination of being forced kicking and screaming into austerity and a very effective opposition.

But like Greece's socialist party, facing credit downgrades and fiscal insolvency, there comes a point when a politician of any ideology will become a fiscal conservative. And Canada's debt downgrade in the early 1990s was certainly the catalyst that sparked a decade of fiscal responsibility.

To try and suggest that Chretien actually believes in small government as a general rule is challenged by the very fact he's running around right now, saying that the Liberal and NDP are a match made in heaven and should merge. Which seems like a pretty slam dunk case for the argument that Chretien is, at his core, a moderate social democrat. Not a moderate small L, classical liberal.

Bob Rae, too is a moderate social democrat. So was Stephane Dion. They orbit around an ideology whose history is grounded in socialism, not liberalism. Thus, my point still stands.

I'm not saying they're socialists. They're not. But their political ideology of big, centralized government, with more moderation than the NDP is at it's core a Fabian ideology. With the exception of, like say New Labour in the UK, believing the market has a role to play.

Earlier in the history of the liberals, their ideology was grounded in liberalism itself, which was starkly opposed to socialism. But now they are a moderate social democrat party. To the the right of the NDP, but not so much they'd be comfortable trucking with their ideological forefathers -- like Laurier for instance. Rather, most Liberals today would consider Laurier a far-right nut-job in his unabashed support for free markets and small government. They'd laugh him out of the party.

To argue that modern day Liberals find their ideological roots in classical liberalism would be nonsense. They are Fabian except-fors. Not liberal except-fors. But their list of except-fors is somewhat longer than the NDP. That's it.

As an actual liberal in the classic sense of the word, I find this to be a point of great consternation.

The conservatives on the other hand are just classic conservative populists. They're for liberty and markets when it suits them. And not when it doesn't. For instance: the Harper conservatives have blocked more foreign takeovers of Canadian companies in the past three years, than the Chretien government did in all of it's 11 years. So much so, that it led to criticism from John Manley. Etc.
 
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Touché. But John Tory was really a rarity in today's political climate. And he absolutely killed himself by having no political sense and pushing that religious schools issue.

He had no political sense as provincial PC leader. However, as mayoral contender in 2003, he absolutely did have political sense--otherwise, given where he was coming from, he could just as well been a Rocco Rossi-type shipwreck...
 
The city suburbs don't WANT a fiscal conservative. They want someone who'll subsidise inefficient anti-market suburban lifestyles in the hollow name of fiscal responsibility.

Dalton McGuinty is the most fiscally responsible politician out there: he raises taxes to pay for services people aren't willing to have cut, and through the green belt he has encouraged a process of density intensification that will make it much cheaper to provide services to Ontarians on a per-capita basis than if liberals had their way and allowed for misguided sprawl to take over.

The inner city of Toronto needs nothing short of an authoritarian government that'll cut through the red tape to provide us with the world-class public realm we deserve due to our immense productivity and enhanced efficiency through density.
 

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