Quebec-Windsor Corridor

[Urban Sky]

Haven't seen this in anglo media yet?

TGV Québec-Toronto | La facture sera plus salée que prévu

Le train à grande vitesse (TGV) souhaité par le gouvernement Trudeau entre Québec et Toronto coûtera plus de 100 milliards, selon les informations de La Presse. Et cette facture salée pourrait friser les 200 milliards si des prolongements s’ajoutent en cours de route.

www.lapresse.ca

Costs would be higher from 120 billions. 200 billions to get to Windsor.

And $500 billion to Chicago - and $5 trillion to meet CAHSR in San Francisco. Sure, if you keep adding extensions nobody was requesting, we can arrive at any fantastical cost figure!

Just to be sure, I’m not saying that there won’t be any HxR service to Windsor, but it won’t be part of this project and procurement…

 

[Hairball]

Probably really early, but one thing I'm curious about, is where would this high speed rail station be built in Toronto? Would it necessarily be at Union? A place that is a little less central may be more suitable so they can build something better, but on the other hand I'm not sure what else they could do.

In Japan, it seems like quite a few HSR stations are not actually the main station in the downtown.

 

[SashaLemon]

Chicago to Detroit would be up to the Americans, but it would be really cool to have HSR all the way from Chicago to Toronto. It would take 3.5 hours but hey, so does Paris to Marseille. Sure the Paris Metro has about 13 million people, along with Lyon and Marseille adding another 4 million. But the Toronto region is like 6-9 million depending on what you want to count, Chicago 8.6-9.6. Detroit adds 4.3. You can even ignore places like London and Windsor and still see that this corridor is fairly similar population wise. Perhaps even better because the population is more split between two big cities instead of the megacity Paris with small satellite cities.

Yes I know I am being rough with the numbers.

 

[Urban Sky]

Probably really early, but one thing I'm curious about, is where would this high speed rail station be built in Toronto? Would it necessarily be at Union? A place that is a little less central may be more suitable so they can build something better, but on the other hand I'm not sure what else they could do.

There is only one place where virtually all public transport networks converge - and that’s where the HxR service should have its station…

In Japan, it seems like quite a few HSR stations are not actually the main station in the downtown.

Yes, but only by necessity, not by choice!

 

[lenaitch]

It's barely out of the gate and already the add-ons are piling on. I wonder what the cost would be to upgrade Canadian to HSR.

 

[chrisw]

HSR can have additional stations in Toronto other than Union.

 

[guavadelic]

Haven't seen this in anglo media yet?

TGV Québec-Toronto | La facture sera plus salée que prévu

Le train à grande vitesse (TGV) souhaité par le gouvernement Trudeau entre Québec et Toronto coûtera plus de 100 milliards, selon les informations de La Presse. Et cette facture salée pourrait friser les 200 milliards si des prolongements s’ajoutent en cours de route.

www.lapresse.ca

Costs would be higher from 120 billions. 200 billions to get to Windsor.

French-language media seems to be getting all the scoops. One of Trudeau's Quebec MPs is leaking like a sieve.

This report doesn't jive with the Radio-Canada report from Monday though:

According to a government source, the consortia's work demonstrated that the high-speed rail option was "much less expensive than originally anticipated." Transport Canada initially estimated that the cost of a high-speed rail link between the two cities could be as high as $80 billion.

All the indications so far have been that it wouldn't be HSR across the full route, but in segments. The 3 hour benchmark for TOR-MTL also indicates it wouldn't be full HSR.

Alstom was pushing for an upgrade to partial-HSR back in 2022 and their estimate for TOR-MTL was 3 hours. From their presentation:

 

[generalcanada]

French-language media seems to be getting all the scoops. One of Trudeau's Quebec MPs is leaking like a sieve.

This report doesn't jive with the Radio-Canada report from Monday though:

All the indications so far have been that it wouldn't be HSR across the full route, but in segments. The 3 hour benchmark for TOR-MTL also indicates it wouldn't be full HSR.

Alstom was pushing for an upgrade to partial-HSR back in 2022 and their estimate for TOR-MTL was 3 hours. From their presentation:

View attachment 608418View attachment 608419

Holy shit 100 billion. probably closer to 120 billion?
No way. Its straight dead on election.
How would they even consider that politically feasable

from the article:

According to our information, federal Transport Minister Anita Anand has made her choice. However, it is the Cabinet that will have the last word. Unofficially, one of the three consortiums that presented proposals to Ottawa has already been chosen, several sources tell us.


It seems certain that the final cost will exceed $100 billion, according to these same sources. However, some of them even mention a starting bill of $120 billion, speaking of an "optimistic" scenario. This about-face has reportedly materialized in recent months within the teams of VIA HFR — the Crown corporation set up for the high-frequency rail project.

 

[Sunnyside]

Holy shit 100 billion. probably closer to 120 billion?
No way. Its straight dead on election.
How would they even consider that politically feasable

from the article:

I’m not sure I buy this cost. It’s too far in the other direction. Especially given the statements that the cost was lower than anticipated, and that it’s likely not full HSR the entire way. I would sooner believe there’s a chart showing a curve of cost to benefits, and it goes all the way up to $120B, and our MP here is citing that upper number [than believe it’s actually going to cost that much, and the government is OK with it].

 

[micheal_can]

It's barely out of the gate and already the add-ons are piling on. I wonder what the cost would be to upgrade Canadian to HSR.

... just move the decimal places a few to the right. Likely around $500T.

$100B for T-O-M-QC? That's it? I figured at least $500M.
Once the actual amount is known, depending on who is in charge, and how they frame it, is what will decide on whether it gets built.

 

[Towered]

Lots of talk again. Show us the money.

 

[crs1026]

Lots of talk again. Show us the money.

My recollection is that the Canadian Infrastructure Bank had a mandate to invest $35B in infrastructure. Not all that money has been spent, but the Bank's mandate may set a limit on how much money Ottawa has to play with. If the cost of high-end HSR turns out to be greater than what the CIB has available.... that does indeed pose a question about how the HSR version would be funded.

Can't wait to hear the numbers.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

My recollection is that the Canadian Infrastructure Bank had a mandate to invest $35B in infrastructure. Not all that money has been spent, but the Bank's mandate may set a limit on how much money Ottawa has to play with. If the cost of high-end HSR turns out to be greater than what the CIB has available.... that does indeed pose a question about how the HSR version would be funded.

$35 billion through 2027-2028.

But wasn't there a more recent program, that they are trying to get TTC Line 2 replacement trains funded under?

 

[guavadelic]

$35 billion through 2027-2028.

But wasn't there a more recent program, that they are trying to get TTC Line 2 replacement trains funded under?

That is the Public Transit Fund proposed by the Feds that is supposed to annually provide $3 Billion in funds for transit agencies across Canada. The funding would only start after 2026 though.

Likely not intended for this purpose if it ever came online.

 

[SashaLemon]

Okay well even based on the metric of per capita ridership France is still ahead of Germany (Deutsche Bahn) and way ahead of Spain (Renfe). I mean it was more of an opinion then a facts driven argument but it still stands. I don't see SBB or OBB in any of these consortia. I mean given it is CDPQ and AtkinsRealis it is pretty much a given that it will be selected.

I realize this is a fast moving topic so apologies if this has already been posted here. Will delete when I get home to scroll back to see if this is already been posted. A friend sent this to me and says of this website says that they know who the consortium winner is:

So this report is saying that Cadence is the consortium that has won the VIA HFR-TGF (soon to be renamed Rapid Train rapide) procurement with an announcement to be made in mid November.

VIDÉO | Un projet de TGV entre Québec et Toronto bientôt lancé?

Le gouvernement fédéral serait prêt à aller de l'avant avec un projet de train à grande vitesse (TGV) entre Toronto et Québec.

www.noovo.info

(I believe it's dated October 29th)

Cadence members:
CDPQ Infra
AtkinsRéalis (formerly SNC-Lavalin)
Systra Canada
Keolis Canada
Air Canada
SNCF Voyageurs S.A.

More info: https://cadence.info/en

Keolis is owned 70% by SNCF and 30% by CDPQ.

AtkinsRéalis and Air Canada are based in Montréal

cc @Northern Light