Poll by poll results for 2019 election

[King of Kensington]

I think the Adam Vaughan school of Liberals speak the language of the "post-partisan professional" much better than the Greens or NDP. The type of voter who likes funding for public transit and the environment, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or pharmacare.

What about Jagmeet Singh? He lacks policy depth to really appeal to the intelligentsia and highly educated professionals, not does he speak to the traditional unionist base. No wonder he is such a disastrous leader.

 

[King of Kensington]

There's a distinction to be made between younger more "edgy" early gentrifiers (more NDP) and the more established professional class (more Liberal/Green).

 

[christiesplits]

What about Jagmeet Singh? He lacks policy depth to really appeal to the intelligentsia and highly educated professionals, not does he speak to the traditional unionist base. No wonder he is such a disastrous leader.

The bar was set very low for him last October. I doubt he get tossed before the next election. I'm stunned he didn't receive more criticism for his extremely poor performance in Brampton and other ethnoburbs. His leadership campaign was based on growing the party, but the NDP was mostly limited to their traditional constituencies: Northern Canada, blue collar towns and some hot spots in BC and Manitoba.

There's a distinction to be made between younger more "edgy" early gentrifiers (more NDP) and the more established professional class (more Liberal/Green).

Agreed. I think the divide is visible through occupation (private sector vs. public sector) and income.

 

[Avenue]

Nah, a lot of "gentrifiers" in Davenport and Parkdale lean NDP whereas "ethnic" groups such as the Portuguese or Chinese have a higher propensity to lean Liberal/Conservative.

 

[King of Kensington]

The NDP still does well in Leslieville. I suspect the gentrification in Leslieville hasn't been as seismic as some similar west end hoods. The area also lacks a sizable bloc of Italian and Portuguese retirees who are reliable grit votes in Davenport.

Not sure about that. NDP vote was really pushed into the eastern fringe of Leslieville. Around Carlaw it's very gentrified.

There seems to be a bit more of an income mix in the west end, Parkdale most obviously but also Bloor-Dufferin.

 

[adma]

The bar was set very low for him last October. I doubt he get tossed before the next election. I'm stunned he didn't receive more criticism for his extremely poor performance in Brampton and other ethnoburbs. His leadership campaign was based on growing the party, but the NDP was mostly limited to their traditional constituencies: Northern Canada, blue collar towns and some hot spots in BC and Manitoba.

Within writ time, he was a great *campaigner*; but the party gave him little to work with leading into the election, nor did Jagmeet give them prior incentive to have much to work with. Essentially, everything--too much--boiled down to his mid-writ "miracle work", like a compressed cartoon version of the Orange Crush; and all he could do was stave off absolute annihilation a la Audrey in '93, which looked to be in the cards as the campaign started.

As far as Brampton et al; well, aside from Jagmeet himself in 2011 they were always electorally left field for the federal Dippers, so the end result against the bigger picture was more wishy-washy and we'll-see-about-next-time than "extremely poor".

And re polling results in the 416: let's remember that even in Davenport, an "Andrew Cash bump" skewed things; had the party run someone new or a relative no-name, the result might have been more comparable to PHP and T-D. And were it not for the Jagmeet surge, the party would likely have finished an Audrey-esque third or worse and perhaps closer to single digits everywhere but the "big three" and maybe Toronto Centre (if more because of relative Con weakness than NDP strength there)--and maybe even behind the Greens in quite a number of places...

 

[adma]

Oh, and one vivid heck-freezing-over emblem for the NDP: they actually lost the Toronto Island poll to Adam Vaughan