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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

jayme2016 said:
If we have a true recession Alberta will be hit very hard not just housing.
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1) Why is Alberta relevant to this discussion?

2) Why would Alberta (dependent on oil and gas) suffer more than Toronto (dependent on finance and real estate)?

I think reliance on extractive industries is bad. But let's be clear. That extraction produces something of value. Real estate and finance, especially as structured in Canada, are self-licking ice cream cones that were always due to eventually fall apart. The fact that realtors and mortgage brokers made more than engineers in Toronto, tells you everything about the flawed economy built there.
 
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kEiThZ said:
1) Why is Alberta relevant to this discussion?

2) Why would Alberta (dependent on oil and gas) suffer more than Toronto (dependent on finance and real estate)?
Click to expand...

I mentioned Alberta and I think that is where he got that from.

Essentially, prices are lower in Alberta and the economy is far different. What impacts Toronto and Vancouver will not impact Alberta in the same way.
 
Alberta house prices are already much more balanced. Edmonton detached house prices are well under $500k.
 
Riding level poll for today's Federal by-election in Mississauga Lakeshore:


1670857993288.png


A look at historical federal records for this riding to provide context:

1670858166367.png

Source - Wikipedia

Result from last election:

1670858222060.png
 
Northern Light said:
Riding level poll for today's Federal by-election in Mississauga Lakeshore:


View attachment 444571

A look at historical federal records for this riding to provide context:

View attachment 444572
Source - Wikipedia

Result from last election:

View attachment 444573
Click to expand...

The Liberals will have no issues winning the riding. As I said before, the Federal Conservatives are nothing more than a glorified Reform party full of right wing fanatics.

The only place Pierre Poilievre will succeed is Alberta where they are just as kooked as he is.
 
Richard White said:
The Liberals will have no issues winning the riding. As I said before, the Federal Conservatives are nothing more than a glorified Reform party full of right wing fanatics.

The only place Pierre Poilievre will succeed is Alberta where they are just as kooked as he is.
Click to expand...
I don't think this is a particularly wise take for supporters of Libs/NDP. PP is going to be a credible threat to the LPC government. This riding was won by the CPC during Harper's tenure. I don't really have strong feeling about how it will go during the byelection, as it doesn't ultimately change the calculus in the HoC. But for the next general, it is not constructive to dismiss PP/CPC as no-hopers.
 
Northern Light said:
37.3 is not exactly a non-competitive result, normally, but virtually no one voted for anyone other than teams red and blue.

View attachment 444791

Source: https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2208&lang=e

I omitted all the independents, none of whom got over 57 votes, in the above image.

***

Voter turnout (per norm in byelections) was abysmal: View attachment 444792
Click to expand...

The real test comes during the next General Election. As I said before, I do not expect Pierre to be a likeable figure outside CPC supports. He gives off the Q-Anon, right wing republican vibe that is more suited towards Alberta than it is the rest of Canada.

He may win large in Alberta but he will not win where it counts. If anything he is a liability to the CPC.
 
Richard White said:
The only place Pierre Poilievre will succeed is Alberta where they are just as kooked as he is.
Click to expand...
Poilievre will do okay in Quebec too. But really he should follow Bill Clinton’s approach and just assume the usual backers (Black for Clinton, cranks for Cons) and instead campaign to moderates.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Poilievre will do okay in Quebec too. But really he should follow Bill Clinton’s approach and just assume the usual backers (Black for Clinton, cranks for Cons) and instead campaign to moderates.
Click to expand...

The problem is Poilievre has made a reputation for himself in the media with Covid, Trucker Protests, etc. There are alot of moderates out there that think he is too extreme.
 
Richard White said:
The problem is Poilievre has made a reputation for himself in the media with Covid, Trucker Protests, etc. There are alot of moderates out there that think he is too extreme.
Click to expand...
Although I agree that a lot of moderates think he is too extreme, I think the next General Election will likely be determined by the state of the economy and the healthcare system at that time, rather than PP's brand challenges.

I think moderates who otherwise think PP is extreme will still vote for him (or, worse, stay home and not vote for the LPC) if PP can continue to hammer on the message that he is the best steward for the economy AND the LPC cedes ground or does not challenge PP's positions on economic and healthcare issues. I sense that the LPC insiders are more focused on wedge/cultural issues like ramping up the Gun-control debate instead of showing leadership on fiscal policy and healthcare policy (although I say healthcare here, I should also acknowledge that although the LPC+NDP have delivered a Dentalcare plan and are working on the ongoing Pharmacare plan, I don't think these will be 'vote getters' in that most of the people impacted by these plans were likely to vote for a progressive party in any case).

As an aside, I don't think there are any inferences or conclusions to be drawn from the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection, it's a one-off in my books, and I completely agree with Richard that the real test will be the next General Election.
 
Northern Light said:
37.3 is not exactly a non-competitive result, normally, but virtually no one voted for anyone other than teams red and blue.

View attachment 444791

Source: https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2208&lang=e

I omitted all the independents, none of whom got over 57 votes, in the above image.

***

Voter turnout (per norm in byelections) was abysmal: View attachment 444792
Click to expand...
To the candidates that only got "2" or worse only "1" vote. Sorry that your close relatives, friends, and neighbours didn't vote for you.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Poilievre will do okay in Quebec too. But really he should follow Bill Clinton’s approach and just assume the usual backers (Black for Clinton, cranks for Cons) and instead campaign to moderates.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see if PP himself and the campaign masters can bring themselves to do that. It will also be interesting to see how the campaign and outcome of next year's Alberta election plays with federal voting intentions.

We tend to vote parties out rather than in.
 
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