PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[kEiThZ]

I’m not as convinced. They will probably just stay home. The Millennials I know who find the Conservative message appealing already have their life set. Got a steady job, had kids, and bought a house. Those who haven’t (myself included) can’t stomach the Conservatives social positions and don’t trust them to help with housing despite what they say. Essentially, Liberal or Conservative, we see the issue of housing remaining the same.

Look at the polling of Millennials from 2015, 2019 and 2021. Steady and substantial loss of support for the Liberals with every election. They were neck-and-neck with the Tories last election in the 18 to 34 group. Of course, that was before housing went up another 10%, rents skyrocketed and inflation really took off.

And I suspect, if there's no change in the economic situation for under 45s in 2025, the NDP won't be spared, as they get to wear some of the Liberal failures thanks to their unofficial coalition deal.

I would also caution extrapolating a Toronto-centric view nationally. Or hell, even a 416 view to the 905. The national polls aren't lying. And the trends are clear.

 

[APTA-2048]

Look at the polling of Millennials from 2015, 2019 and 2021. Steady and substantial loss of support for the Liberals with every election. They were neck-and-neck with the Tories last election in the 18 to 34 group. Of course, that was before housing went up another 10%, rents skyrocketed and inflation really took off.

And I suspect, if there's no change in the economic situation for under 45s in 2025, the NDP won't be spared, as they get to wear some of the Liberal failures thanks to their unofficial coalition deal.

I would also caution extrapolating a Toronto-centric view nationally. Or hell, even a 416 view to the 905. The national polls aren't lying. And the trends are clear.

Polling still doesn’t show the enthusiasm for the Conservatives like you stated. Not the ones I’ve seen. If anything, the NDP is seeing a little bump from the disappointment with the Liberals.

This a actually a huge opportunity for the Greens and NDP to make gains among Millennials. Unfortunately neither party has shown much seriousness and ambition to actually motivate Millennials to vote besides their base.

And no, I’m not looking at this from a Toronto centric view. I know people in rural Ontario, Alberta, BC, and Quebec. People my age are disillusioned with all political parties and don’t much see a point.

 

[kEiThZ]

Polling still doesn’t show the enthusiasm for the Conservatives like you stated. Not the ones I’ve seen. If anything, the NDP is seeing a little bump from the disappointment with the Liberals.

The polling I saw, had the Liberals go from ~40% in 2015 to 27% in 2021 with 18 to 34s. Yes, the NDP was leading but that doesn't help, if it contributes to a left vote split that has the CPC sneak through. The CPC faces their own challenges with the PPC nipping at their heels, but that party might be substantially driven by COVID which might be less of a factor in 2025.

Also, 2015 Millennials will not be 2025 youth voters. A lot of the 2015 group in the 18-34 range are older millennials who still had a shot at entering the housing market. In 2025, it's mostly Zoomers and some younger millennials in this bracket. And they can't even dream of owning anything more than a 500 sqft condo.

 

[PinkLucy]

Was this polling before or after the Liberal/NDP agreement? It will be interesting to see if that has any impact.

Completely anecdotally, but the millennials in my life would never vote CPC without a significant change to the party and its policies.

 

[kEiThZ]

Was this polling before or after the Liberal/NDP agreement? It will be interesting to see if that has any impact.

It's polling from the last three elections.

Completely anecdotally, but the millennials in my life would never vote CPC without a significant change to the party and its policies.

And neither would most millennials I know. But polls clearly show a trending decline in Liberal support in this cohort. The problem here isn't necessarily that they'll vote CPC in large numbers. They can also split the vote substantially to enable a CPC win. A split on the left and a few more percentage points for the CPC and it could be a real rout. I see this as highly likely if the current economic conditions persist.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Budget day today. I wonder if Canada will meet its 2% commitment to defence spending? If not now, when?

House calls for Canada to meet NATO defence spending target on eve of budget

On the eve of the federal budget, the House of Commons passed a motion calling for the federal government to increase its national defence spending to 'at least' meet the NATO target of two per cent gross domestic product (GDP).

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[DSC]

Budget day today. I wonder if Canada will meet its 2% commitment to defence spending? If not now, when?

House calls for Canada to meet NATO defence spending target on eve of budget

On the eve of the federal budget, the House of Commons passed a motion calling for the federal government to increase its national defence spending to 'at least' meet the NATO target of two per cent gross domestic product (GDP).

www.ctvnews.ca

I think nobody expects to see 2% announced today and a HUGE amount depends on what it is spent on anyway.

 

[kEiThZ]

Budget day today. I wonder if Canada will meet its 2% commitment to defence spending? If not now, when?

Not a chance. We don't even have the procurement and engineering staff to spend that much money. Presuming we don't have any multi-year recessions going forward, it would take the better part of a decade to hit the 2% target. We could, however, achieve something like 1.7-1.8% over the next 5 years.

Also, there is almost certainly no chance of defence spending going up that much as long the NDP is propping up this government. It's all right, this time gives the government a chance to write a new defence and foreign policy and put together a new shopping list.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not a chance. We don't even have the procurement and engineering staff to spend that much money.

The Germans must be in for an economic shock. Defence spending just jumped from below 1.5% to over 2%. They also have to deal with a massive energy shortage coming this autumn. I wonder where they're going to find the money?

 

[afransen]

The defense spending is, if anything, stimulative. Germany has a very strong balance sheet and can always borrow if needed. Europe is likely headed for recession with all the disruption that is happening to supply chains.

 

[kEiThZ]

The Germans must be in for an economic shock. Defence spending just jumped from below 1.5% to over 2%. They also have to deal with a massive energy shortage coming this autumn. I wonder where they're going to find the money?

They aren't doing that in a year. Unless they have a whole bunch of stuff in the pipeline they can accelerate. Anybody making pledges like that is engaging in an accounting exercise and booking forward spending to get the numbers up while they ramp.

 

[Northern Light]

The housing affordability measures in the budget were mostly leaked, and I previously conveyed my thoughts on their utility or lack thereof..........

But there are a couple of things I hadn't seen in the leaks............

 

[kEiThZ]

Germany: €100B over 4 years for defence in response to the Ukraine crisis with another €100B for climate measures to cut Russian O&G dependence.

Canada: "It's a huge crisis. Worst since WWII. Here's $8B over 5 years."

 

[Admiral Beez]

Germany: €100B over 4 years for defence in response to the Ukraine crisis with another €100B for climate measures to cut Russian O&G dependence.

Canada: "It's a huge crisis. Worst since WWII. Here's $8B over 5 years."

$8B? Does that include the F-35 program? If so, that alone is more than $8B over the first five years.

 

[kEiThZ]

$8B? Does that include the F-35 program? If so, that alone is more than $8B over the first five years.

There actually wasn't even much of a allocation plan in the budget. Just an announcement of $8B additional funding and some vague allusion to modernizing NORAD, which is also going to be difficult given that we are still out of Ballistic Missile Defence too. There was $875M for boosting cyber. And that is both needed and good. Canada's cyber community is a bright spot where we actually punch well above our weight.

The F-35 should not be part of this allocation. It should already be in the capital plan. And most of the spending comes after first delivery, as progress payments are made on subsequent airframes. It's probably about $1-2B in spending over the next 3-4 years in progress payments, infrastructure build up and ab initio training costs.