Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

[kEiThZ]

In case anyone missed some recent developments.....

The government showed how much they care about they Pickering airport by announcing that they are putting $18.5 million in to a $39 million upgrade of Hamilton airport. And thanks to Norwegian operating out of Hamilton, Megabus has started servicing Hamilton airport from Toronto in March.

All developments in the last 4 months. Add in transit developments with GO on Lakeshore West (RER) and A-Line BRT to YHM and the airport looks set to become a lot more accessible going forward. I think any study by Transport Canada is quickly going to reach the conclusion that it's a heck of a lot cheaper to build up YHM than a whole new airport in Pickering.

 

[MarkBrooks]

In case anyone missed some recent developments.....

The government showed how much they care about they Pickering airport by announcing that they are putting $18.5 million in to a $39 million upgrade of Hamilton airport. And thanks to Norwegian operating out of Hamilton, Megabus has started servicing Hamilton airport from Toronto in March.

All developments in the last 4 months. Add in transit developments with GO on Lakeshore West (RER) and A-Line BRT to YHM and the airport looks set to become a lot more accessible going forward. I think any study by Transport Canada is quickly going to reach the conclusion that it's a heck of a lot cheaper to build up YHM than a whole new airport in Pickering.

That’s Great! But a drop in morning the Dew , they need to throw billions at Pearson and Hamilton with public trains to move people to the remaining infrastructure or they can stand back and let private money build Pickering, my bet is on the later .

 

[MarkBrooks]

It'll be entertaining if Pickering is announced and the GTAA is given the mandate to develop and build the airport. I highly doubt this government (at least) would be interested in farming out such a development entirely to a private operator. And given the federal cash cow that is Pearson ($130 million in ground rent per year), how likely is it that the feds will simply allow a private operator to compete and destroy that cash flow?

It was 172$ million in ground rent last year, and the GTAA is a private not for profit with the same mandate that a new Pickering Airport authority (PAA ) would have.
Could the GTAA or the Vancouver Airport Authority ( which runs Hamilton) have the winning bid? Absolutely!
As long as the risk is on private investors who cares?

 

[MarkBrooks]

Most of those Considerations are spurious at best.

Can’t even find one point to dig at? Come on give it the old college try!

 

[kEiThZ]

That’s Great! But a drop in morning the Dew , they need to throw billions at Pearson and Hamilton with public trains to move people to the remaining infrastructure or they can stand back and let private money build Pickering, my bet is on the later .

1. They are already building that infrastructure for Hamilton. The A-Line BRT is under construction as we speak.

2. Nobody has plans to build any infrastructure to service the site of the Pickering Airport. Nor has anybody pledged to do so. Where's Pickering or Durham region's plan for a BRT/LRT that connects to a hypothetical Pickering Airport?

3. These investments are slowly adding up the sunk capital. How much would it cost to replicate the existing infrastructure in Hamilton, in Pickering? That's the hole that the business case for Pickering is starting from. Your website assumes that various levels of government will provide $900 million under a P3 arrangement. And that's only 25% of the cost of the initial buildout, with passengers eventually paying the rest through AIFs. For half of that cost, Hamilton could build a whole new terminal, parking structure, beef up the airside and easily end up in the top 10 busiest airports in the country.

It was 172$ million in ground rent last year, and the GTAA is a private not for profit with the same mandate that a new Pickering Airport authority (PAA ) would have.
Could the GTAA or the Vancouver Airport Authority ( which runs Hamilton) have the winning bid? Absolutely!
As long as the risk is on private investors who cares?

I think the feds would care a fair bit if a new airport substantially cut into their revenue stream out of YYZ. There's far less risk of YHM doing that.

 

[Tim MacDonald]

Can’t even find one point to dig at? Come on give it the old college try!

Well, if you must.
FACT: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that the number of passengers worldwide will double to 8.2 billion by 2037.

Does not mean that Canada, or even the GTA, will experience this type of growth. Yo

Consider: Toronto’s booming growth, improving aviation technology and efficiency are combining with consumer trends to make aviation the cornerstone of long distance travel in Canada and across the world.

This has been the case since the dawn of jet travel; nothing new here.

Consider: Pickering Airport will reduce aviation noise pollution for millions of Canadians . It will reduce aircraft noise by removing the pressure to increase flights (especially at night) into urban-locked Pearson Airport. Approach paths into Pickering are partly over parkland and green space.

This just ain't gonna happen! Any traffic that moves from Pearson will be backfilled by new entrants. There will be no net reduction in noise levels just because Pickering opens. and you will not claw back overnight operations.

Consider: Freedom of movement is a right in Canada, not just for the rich. The new airport will improve access and reduce the pending aviation infrastructure crunch that could send Toronto travel costs soaring.

This is just an intrinsically ridiculous statement stuck in an early 1960s travel mindset. No one in southern Ontario is having difficulty accessing a commercial airport.,

Consider: Pickering airport will improve flight safety. Air travel is the safest mode of transportation in Canada, but as congestion builds the pressure is on to cut corners to increase capacity at Pearson and Billy Bishop airports. The new airport removes this pressure.

Again, no one is cutting corners , especially from an ATC or movement perspective. These are some of the best aviation professionals in the biz and they don't cut corners.

 

[kEiThZ]

I would just like reminded everyone of the urgency behind this project.

Increasingly, it's looking like the urgency Pickering airport proponents have is driven by their concern over watching Hamilton airport emerge from the shadows. Thanks to long range narrow bodies, there are going to be a lot more transatlantic flights there. And I can sense the panic setting in as that airport grows. Norwegian's Dublin service is the first of many to come.

We have not a moment to lose! Ask your Member of Parliament to get our future airborne!

Indeed, I'm definitely going to suggest to my MP that more needs to be invested in existing airports, like Hamilton.

I don't think that's the business case they are talking about. I think they probably mean for airlin3es to fly out of it, an "if you build it they will come" approach could be a really bad idea in this case.

They have a rudimentary financial analysis. People should read it:

Will the Pickering Airport Cost Tax Payers Billions of Dollars a Year?

The Pickering Airport is expected to be built in several phases, with the first phase to be the most expensive. A source close to one group interested in the full development has indicated that the…

pickeringairport.org

Not as free market as Mr. Brooks makes it out to be. They want the land, a $900 million contribution from the three levels of government and municipal investment for roads, sewer, water and power. And since that is only 25% of the cost to launch, guess who is paying the other 75%?

I ask again. Why spend a billion on Pickering only to have passengers pay billions more in fees over the next 25 years, when the same capacity can be achieved in Hamilton for half the initial public investment in Pickering, and not much more in capital costs?

 

[Tim MacDonald]

I'm sorry to tell you this Mark but Pickering didn't make sense in the 70s and it is likely still several decades away from making sense as an airport. There is still plenty of room at YYZ for terminal expansion and eventually a parallel runway 05/23 will be built. There really is no business case or urgent need for Pickering to be built in the near future.

 

[kEiThZ]

The simple fact is that the $900 million that Pickering needs in government funding to launch, would achieve more and deliver faster spent at existing airports.

Hamilton is going to break a million pax next year. They don't even have jetbridges. For reference, Billy Bishop does 3 million annually. A billion spent on Hamilton might give you capacity to do 10 million pax annually, and there would still be room to grow. Alternatively, a billion spent on Pearson, would build the extra runway and a lot of the other airside development they need. But for Pickering that billion dollars would just be a downpayment on a $4 billion investment.

 

[gweed123]

The simple fact is that the $900 million that Pickering needs in government funding to launch, would achieve more and deliver faster spent at existing airports.

Hamilton is going to break a million pax next year. They don't even have jetbridges. For reference, Billy Bishop does 3 million annually. A billion spent on Hamilton might give you capacity to do 10 million pax annually, and there would still be room to grow. Alternatively, a billion spent on Pearson, would build the extra runway and a lot of the other airside development they need. But for Pickering that billion dollars would just be a downpayment on a $4 billion investment.

I'd like to spend that $900 million on widening the 403 between the 6's so that that stretch can have HOV and/or dedicated transit lanes. Run an express bus from Aldershot GO to Hamilton Airport. That would make it much more accessible for the rest of the GTA. The A-Line is a good connection, but it's never going to be that well used from people outside of Hamilton to access the airport. It's for Hamiltonians to access the airport.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'd like to spend that $900 million on widening the 403 between the 6's so that that stretch can have HOV and/or dedicated transit lanes. Run an express bus from Aldershot GO to Hamilton Airport. That would make it much more accessible for the rest of the GTA. The A-Line is a good connection, but it's never going to be that well used from people outside of Hamilton to access the airport. It's for Hamiltonians to access the airport.

Access is half the problem. The infrastructure at the airport itself is the other issue. Hamilton has a large airfield with a small terminal. Increasing passenger numbers there will require investment. And access is part of it the total package of improvements needed.

What speaks in Hamilton's favour is that every investment to improve access to YHM also helps the rest of the GTA.

 

[gweed123]

Access is half the problem. The infrastructure at the airport itself is the other issue. Hamilton has a large airfield with a small terminal. Increasing passenger numbers there will require investment. And access is part of it the total package of improvements needed.

What speaks in Hamilton's favour is that every investment to improve access to YHM also helps the rest of the GTA.

Agreed. I feel like YHM is in a bit of a "chicken or the egg" scenario. It can't attract new airlines/more flights without more demand for them, but it can't generate the demand without better access and a better terminal. The foundation is there (certainly more than it is at Pickering), but it just needs those few more pieces of the puzzle to really work.

I feel like rail access is overly-ambitious at this point, but the infrastructure required to support a reliable bus connection to Aldershot would be a huge win for the Hamilton/Burlington area as a whole.

 

[Tim MacDonald]

YHM has two issues:
1. The road network to it is up a twisty mountain which is just nasty in the winter. There's a reason why UPS all but abandoned it and moved to Pearson.
2. Competition from BUffalo/Niagara airports. If you're up for Hamilton you may as well drive to BUF/IAG depending on your final destination. I only did this once in the PeopleExpress days of 1982/1983 but a buddy of mine does it all the time.

For those that remember, YHM has hosted many carriers who have launched and then discontinued service in short order to a variety of destinations - domestic, transborder and trans atlantic. since before deregulation.

Sadly, Hamilton is not the answer. There is only one Mothership and that is Pearson.

 

[narduch]

With the coming climate apocalypse should we even bother with Pickering?

There's a big debate in London about expanding Heathrow.

Heathrow says it is worried climate change will cause problems to third runway

Controversial expansion plans come amid stark new warnings the UK is failing to hit emissions goals

www.independent.co.uk

 

[MarkBrooks]

With the coming climate apocalypse should we even bother with Pickering?

There's a big debate in London about expanding Heathrow.

Heathrow says it is worried climate change will cause problems to third runway

Controversial expansion plans come amid stark new warnings the UK is failing to hit emissions goals

www.independent.co.uk

Toronto is not London which has 6 jet airports , including Heathrow. They also have cities closer together an existing fully functional alternative modes of transport including a passenger rail network worth hundreds of billions.

Given the congestion projected for Pearson, the climate emergency makes building Pickering even more urgent.

There are significant climate benefits of building Pickering. As outlined here: