Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s
- Thread starter JasonParis
- Start date
H4F33Z
Active Member
Woodbridge_Heights
Senior Member
Doug ford better hurry if he plans to have even a shovel turning ceremony for this before the end of this current term.
However i suspect as is the norm in this province that this project ia vapour ware and will more likely never be built.
However i suspect as is the norm in this province that this project ia vapour ware and will more likely never be built.
AHK
Senior Member
A comment on the process from my understanding. Metrolinx wants to off-load as much risk as possible to the winning bidder - to have a fixed price contract for building the Ontario Line in which the bidder is responsible for any unanticipated problems and associated cost overruns.
The bidders need to offset, to price in, the risks that they will be assuming, potentially resulting in a huge risk premium in their pricing. The more that is known about the detailed components of the project, the more narrowly the bidding groups can price their proposals. My understanding is that all this geological surveying along the planned route (plus possibly some minor variations) is to be presented as part of the package of specifications on which the bidders are to base their proposals, and hopefully narrow down the amount of risk premium in their pricing.
Of course, the trade-off is the amount of time and cost required to develop the specifications down to the level which reduces the amount of risk, and thus the amount of risk premium to be incorporated in the proposals, down to a cost the province is willing to accept.
As to the full scope of this pre-bid investigatory work, its timing, and when the actual bid specifications containing the detailed results of these investigations, are to the released to the short-listed bidding consortia I do not know. I know that Metrolinx has a high level schedule for the overall project, but how realistic it is at this point to me would be somewhat questionable.
And obviously - still a very long way until shovels are in the ground. Basic sequence I would expect:
The bidders need to offset, to price in, the risks that they will be assuming, potentially resulting in a huge risk premium in their pricing. The more that is known about the detailed components of the project, the more narrowly the bidding groups can price their proposals. My understanding is that all this geological surveying along the planned route (plus possibly some minor variations) is to be presented as part of the package of specifications on which the bidders are to base their proposals, and hopefully narrow down the amount of risk premium in their pricing.
Of course, the trade-off is the amount of time and cost required to develop the specifications down to the level which reduces the amount of risk, and thus the amount of risk premium to be incorporated in the proposals, down to a cost the province is willing to accept.
As to the full scope of this pre-bid investigatory work, its timing, and when the actual bid specifications containing the detailed results of these investigations, are to the released to the short-listed bidding consortia I do not know. I know that Metrolinx has a high level schedule for the overall project, but how realistic it is at this point to me would be somewhat questionable.
And obviously - still a very long way until shovels are in the ground. Basic sequence I would expect:
- Completion of the various investigations, documentation and analysis of the results
- Finalization of the bid requirements and specificaitons
- Internal review, modifications, approval and sign-off (possibly with several iterations prior to final sign-off)
- Issue to shortlisted consortia
- Bid preparation by consortia
- Submission
- Review and evaluation of proposals
- Identification of preferred supplier
- Negotiations with preferred supplier - sort out any issues with proposal to come to mutually agreeable contract.
- Internal review, approval and sign-off on contract - Metroxlinx and Province (at least minister and premier level, maybe entire cabinet)
- Formal signing of contract
- Mobilization
- Start of Work - Shovels in Ground
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
The RFQ/RFP has been delayed by six months to Fall 2020. For obvious reasons, it'll likely get pushed back further.
Has Metrolinx said that for certain? A 100% fixed cost would make this project astronomically expensive.
AHK
Senior Member
I was paraphrasing a bit from what I was told at one of the open houses earlier this year - spoke with one of the senior executives at Metrolinx on this specific point - the trade-offs between who takes how much risk and at what costs. Metrolinx obviously offload as much risk as is feasibly possible, minimize the areas in which extras and overages could occur (e.g. the Eglinton Crosstown LRT), while recognizing that eliminating all risk, getting a fixed price contract for everything, would be prohibitively expensive. Their strategy was going include doing as much preliminary ground work and analysis to remove as much of the uncertainty around the project as would be feasible. In this particular case - the geological sampling - if Metrolinx did not provide the findings to all bidders, then either each one would have to all do this work on their own, out of the bid fee the province was offering, or they would have to increase the risk buffer being priced into their bids.
I did not intend to imply Metrolinx was going for one single overall fixed price contract - unfortunately, that is how my comment was phrased.
Northern Light
Superstar
Steve Munro trying to get information but gets rebuffed again.
Metrolinx Mum on Ontario Line Details
A recent Metrolinx blog post extols the virtues of the Ontario Line and the advantages of staying out of underground alignments. Well, I thought, maybe they are further along in the design and can …stevemunro.ca
I continue to be of the belief that the loose, high-level version of this line is not workable from a practical or financial perspective.
I could be wrong; but I fully expect the project as-is to die.
We will end up, i think with something closer to the original Relief Line, with a phase 2 going north to Don Mills & Eg.
Frankly Metrolinx unwillingness to be pinned down on anything about their concept makes me view them in a highly suspect way.
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rbt
Senior Member
What we get is probably dependent on the next election results. A Ford win will follow through on the Ontario Line as (yet to be?) planned.
However, I think you're right that a Liberal or NDP win will look a bit different. I could see the Ontario Line keeping the design (largely elevated with GO interchange and Metrolinx routing) but only building the Pape to University section and using Toronto Rocket rolling stock with the original storage yard configuration. A planned phase 2 would run from Pape to Sheppard as a single step but a separate tender, and the western leg in some distant future.
We've already seen general contractors balk at the $14B GO Expansion scheme (they asked for it to be broken into several smaller pieces); so I don't see many jumping at a very similar DBOFM $12B Ontario Line tender. Breaking it into 2 or 3 separate stages will likely get lower bids (more contractors, lower risk for them as a $12B lemon would bankrupt most).
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Divas S.
Active Member
if the NDP won the next election they wouldn't continue to do P3's as it makes no sense to pay for-profit companies to build our infrastructure.
rbt
Senior Member
A DBOM or even just DB agreement would make the private contractor much happier. It's the financing piece they're afraid of as government will refuse payments during a breach of contract which would hurt painfully even a decade after the capital construction.
The "F" is intended to be the stick to ensure the job is done properly for the life of the project. If after 10 years station foundations start to crumble and the contractor walks from the maintenance agreement, they lose $6B in capital payments in addition to the trickle of operations/maintenance revenue.
I have a strong preference for older TTC style design as you build tendering; it's faster (work on design while construction is underway) and cheaper (much less inflation on later stages of construction); but you can't possibly know the final cost when you start as the design isn't finished when you start.
TTC would have had utility moves underway next year for DRL, and excavation for TBM launch pits underway by the election; but they couldn't have told you the colour of the station tile yet.
Allandale25
Senior Member
Re practical and financial. With the amount of money they save by not going below ground between the West Don Lands and Gerrard Square, doesn't it mean that even if they have to do a lot for expropriation to deal with all the clearance and straddling grade separations Steve notes in his questions, they still come out ahead? In other words, is expropriation and making an above-ground corridor work is still cheaper than tunnelling.
Northern Light
Superstar
Debatable.
It depends on a lot of different choices they make or don't make, for which we don't have answers.
Lets take corridor widening and a station at Queen. If the corridor has to operate with 4 GO tracks (as per plan), 2 OL tracks, and have one track for VIA HFR, you're looking at a 7-track corridor.
But add a station, with platforms, , which then needs egress to Queen Street for large volumes of people.........you're looking at more than a couple of meters.
But we need to know the siting of the station (Centred on Queen, north of Queen, south of Queen) to assess the impact, along with whether tracks run on the n/e or s/w side of the corridor.
At Queen you might displace Jimmy Simpson Rec Ctr, at which point, I would argue, Metrolinx is obligated to find the City nearby land of comparable size and pay for a new facility.
Or you could go the other direction and end up withe corridor literally on top of Degrassi Street.
The cost of of obtaining the land, mitigating the impacts and building the embankment and structures is not small.
There are lots of other tradeoffs.
Notably, if you end up realizing (as I suspect will be the case) that Greenwood Yard is the only option.......for an MSF.
There are many complexities and costs......
There are also offsets in lower development revenues.
Underground stations can be entirely built over at R-L projected depths.
Don't expect many proposals for building over a 7-Track wide LSE at Queen.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Yes, this is the obvious elephant of the room. I suspect the COVID-induced delays, and the subsequent budget crunch, to be used as justification to either indefinitely "delay" (SELRT style) or outright cancel the Ontario Line. I'd say the Eglinton West LRT is at high risk of cancelation as well.
If Ford and company manage to still deliver the Ontario Line, well, hats off to them, despite the obvious flaws in the proposal; shows that they really meant it when they said they intended to deliver this project.
It's been over a year since this was proposed, and we still have zero concrete information about the proposal. We don't know the routing, how they intend to fit it in the rail corridors, etc... This would be highly suspect for any transit proposal, but especially suspect given that the Ontario Line planning was supposed to be expedited.
Returning to a TTC rolling stock (and yard) would, I suspect, fundamentally alter the track geometry, such that the original Relief Line South routing would have to be used.
That said, there are really good elements in the Ontario Line proposal, such as integration with the RER stations, so if those can at all be integrated with the RLS plans, that should be encouraged
I understand that Metrolinx was actually looking at oppertunities to integrate the expropriated lands into the Ontario Line stations, where possible. This might create additional value that could offset some of the expropriation costs.
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Coolstar
Senior Member
In an era of doom and gloom over these new transit projects, I admire your positivity and hopefulness for the future ahead.
officedweller
Senior Member
If the project proceeds as a fixed price Design, Build, (partially)Finance, Operate and Maintain contract, like Canada Line (or Evergreen Extension (minus the Operate and maybe the Maintain), don't expect to see station designs or exact station or guideway locations or configurations until after the successful proponent is selected - the proponent will make those decisions. (ie. For the Evergreen Line, the proponent chose a single bore tunnel divided by a centre wall instead of twin bore tunnels. The bigger tunnel caused a lot of sinkhole issues (risk on proponent) despite prior geotech investigations).
vancouversun.com
The REM is being built under a similar form of fixed price contract (EPC - Engineering, Procurement & Construction)
Evergreen Line late but under budget, says province
Fixed-price contract helps keep the Evergreen Line under budget by $70 to $85 million. The train line goes into operation on Friday.
vancouversun.com
The REM is being built under a similar form of fixed price contract (EPC - Engineering, Procurement & Construction)
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