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News Roundup for May 14, 2024
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Ontario election predictions, anyone?

I would avoid watching the "debate" even if I did have television. The party platforms will suffice. I had my lesson after the Turner-Mulroney debate, when the latter deplored the former's inability to undo Trudeau's patronage appointments. Mulroney handily won the debate and the election, only to become the champion of patronage afterwards...
 
I think we're heading toward a classic result where NDPers jump the bandwagon at the polling station to avoid a Conservative government. The NDP Orange surge in the Federal election was a Jack Layton inspired exception and Horwath is no Jack Layton. Whatever the Liberals are polling at, add another 5-10% who will jump ship from the NDP last minute.

Liberal Minority + NDP = Centre/Left Majority. Hudak stays on for another election after a good showing.
 
MetroMan said:
Hudak stays on for another election after a good showing.
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Hopefully not. A sure victory was handed to him and he's already managed to screw it up. I want some real Ontario Tories, not Harper's.
 
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I think that we're pretty much guaranteed to be in the clear of a destructive PC government. There will be no majority so the NDP will find it in their interest to prop up the Liberal government. The last time that happened, it was followed by an NDP majority. This is their key to power and they know it. Show that they can govern in a coalition and then go for Gold in the next election.

On the other hand, if the NDP decides to stay out of any coalition and just allows Hudak to become Premier, he'll have no power to implement his agenda because most of it is against what the NDP stands for.

I think the best result is a Liberal + NDP coalition. McGuinty will continue to keep the ship steady with his experience and the NDP will push for an ambitious transit strategy, a green economy and a pro-city agenda. Toronto will see the TTC better funded -- if not 50-50, at least a compromise -- and social services uploaded.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this election after accepting that we were heading for a Conservative trifecta when Ford, then Harper swept the city and country.
 
MetroMan said:
I think that we're pretty much guaranteed to be in the clear of a destructive PC government. There will be no majority so the NDP will find it in their interest to prop up the Liberal government. The last time that happened, it was followed by an NDP majority. This is their key to power and they know it. Show that they can govern in a coalition and then go for Gold in the next election.

On the other hand, if the NDP decides to stay out of any coalition and just allows Hudak to become Premier, he'll have no power to implement his agenda because most of it is against what the NDP stands for.
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Based on the campaign promises, the agendas of the Hudak and Horwath seem pretty much the same to me this: tax cuts, anti-immigration, etc.
 
It is funny many of my co-workers--probably 90% immigrants--say they are voting Liberal because it's "the immigrant party." I find that amusing considering the leader of the L is the most establishment/non immigrant of any of them.

I too wish the Tories had a strong leader, not the goofy who-dat in charge now.
 
For those who want to see the entire CP24 interview with Tim Hudak, click on this link.

The section of Hudak 2 - Friday, September 30, 2011 contains remarks on the war on the car is over, his agreeing with Rob Ford plans against Transit City, and overturning long-range transit planning and going with short-term transit planning instead.
 
MetroMan said:
I think we're heading toward a classic result where NDPers jump the bandwagon at the polling station to avoid a Conservative government. The NDP Orange surge in the Federal election was a Jack Layton inspired exception and Horwath is no Jack Layton. Whatever the Liberals are polling at, add another 5-10% who will jump ship from the NDP last minute.
Click to expand...

I doubt it'll be as much as 5-10%--at the lowest, maybe, the NDP will hit the lower end of the present polls (say, 23-25%), barring last-minute gaffes. And besides, even if she's "no Jack Layton", Horwath seems to elicit (esp. since the debate) a parallel sort of positivity and good will in her own right.

Maybe what's more at issue here is that McGuinty--to his benefit--is no Michael Ignatieff, i.e. he's more capable of "holding his vote".
 
Whatever the result, it won't be Ford friendly; he's half the reason for Hudak's remarkable plunge in the polls and should be thanked for removing the threat of a Conservative trifeca. Best and most likely result is a Lib minority with NDP support. A Lib/NDP coalition is also possible but a bit more fraught with uncertainty in its initial stages.
 
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I'm a little nervous that Hudak and McGuinty still remain neck and neck despite the more pro-Liberal/anti-Hudak ads that I've seen versus pro-PC/anti-McGuinty. There seems to be a few independent groups (working families, teachers) putting up ads to the detriment of Hudak.

I was more confident when there was the possibility that even if McGuinty won less seats, he could form a coalition with the NDP and there would be no way Hudak would become Premier. Now that McGuinty has come so completely and publicly against a coalition, it can't happen so it will come down to who has more seats.

I'm still moderately optimistic that the usual strategic NDP voters will move to Liberal last minute. Hopefully in enough numbers to put McGuinty just over Hudak. I can't imagine transit in Toronto taking another blow (i.e. cancelled Eglinton, Airport line, Streetcar order)
 
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