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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

Quint said:
Exactly! ICU hospitalizations and deaths are the ONLY metrics that matter! Death rates have been plummeting and there is no evidence that ICU's are being overwhelmed. The number of people testing positive is not informative. The fact is many more asymptomatic people are being tested today than a year ago and we also know that the commonly used PCR tests have a very high false-positive rate.

Increased "cases" ≠ more hospitalizations and DEATHS
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5 Q. What is the incidence of false positive COVID-19 tests? What is the cause of this and what is done to minimize this from occurring?

A.Based on PHO Laboratory data, we are aware that the incidence of false positive tests that are later corrected is extremely low. The exact incidence for the province is not known, as individual reports that are corrected do not require notification.

As of May 23, 2020, PHO Laboratory has detected false positive SARS-CoV-2 results on approximately 20 occasions among over 228,000 specimens tested to date for COVID-19, with ~11,000 specimens testing positive. This represents a false positivity rate of less than 0.01% (specificity of >99.99%), which is well beyond performance targets for a laboratory test, even acknowledging there may be some false positive tests that are not detected.

In general, the positive predictive value of COVID-19 PCR assays is excellent, and approaches 100%. At PHO Laboratory, we know this as we are able to generate viral sequence from samples that are positive provided the viral copy number is not near the lower limit of detection of the assay.


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As to the argument of increased cases not translating into more hospitalizations and deaths - well, the data begs to differ:

1621516701839.png

1621516645534.png

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395018834831192065

And Critical Care cases:

1621517079823.png

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395343288606019584

Odd how hospitalizations (regular and ICU) and deaths crests and wanes with new cases. I can't believe we are still litigating these basics at this point of the pandemic.

AoD
 
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Admiral Beez said:
In heavily vaccinated countries yes, but not in Canada, where ICU due to Covid are still at near record highs. Screen grabs from CBC below.

View attachment 321141


View attachment 321142
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We're a heavily vaccinated country, with 48% of the population having at least one dose. Since we tend to compare ourselves to the Americans and Brits most often, we should be passing the US today and we're catching up to the UK fast. We're well ahead of comparable countries like Germany and Italy.

DSC said:
Cases up again today, on more tests:

Ontario is reporting 2,400 cases of #COVID19 and over 45,400 tests completed.
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It varies from day to day, which is why the 7 day rolling average tells more of a story. It's been in decline for the last month. The end is in sight, hopefully for good this time. 👍
 
Interesting data point in the US is that they have given about 9 million doses of the one dose J&J vaccine. That is included in the 'fully vaccinated' number. We are not using it here.

I hope the reports are true that Ontario will proceed with second doses of AZ.
 
MisterF said:
We're a heavily vaccinated country, with 48% of the population having at least one dose. Since we tend to compare ourselves to the Americans and Brits most often, we should be passing the US today and we're catching up to the UK fast. We're well ahead of comparable countries like Germany and Italy.


It varies from day to day, which is why the 7 day rolling average tells more of a story. It's been in decline for the last month. The end is in sight, hopefully for good this time. 👍
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Of course, which is why I have been posting the 7-day average chart weekly. It is updated daily (about 10.30am) at https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
 
Ridiculous.

They do realize that by June 14th we will likely be hitting the vaccine metrics for phase 3 right? Provided they keep up with supply we will be essentially done first doses at that point and well into second doses.

The individual steps are fine - but they need a fourth step, a true end game. And a damn more aggressive schedule.

Daily case counts will bottom out by June 14th most likely hovering at a couple hundred cases a day and basically 0 hospitalizations. Why the hell should we wait another month and a half to have everything reopened, especially since that those re-openings will still be limited in capacity? By the end of July the country will essentially be fully vaccinated.

The whole plan is nuts and throws away half the summer for no reason.

Phase 1 should be starting June 2 with two week gaps between each phase, and a 4th phase at the end of July that is basically a full return to normal.
 
innsertnamehere said:
Ridiculous.

They do realize that by June 14th we will likely be hitting the vaccine metrics for phase 3 right? Provided they keep up with supply we will be essentially done first doses at that point and well into second doses.

The individual steps are fine - but they need a fourth step, a true end game. And a damn more aggressive schedule.

Daily case counts will bottom out by June 14th most likely hovering at a couple hundred cases a day and basically 0 hospitalizations. Why the hell should we wait another month and a half to have everything reopened, especially since that those re-openings will still be limited in capacity? By the end of July the country will essentially be fully vaccinated.

The whole plan is nuts and throws away half the summer for no reason.

Phase 1 should be starting June 2 with two week gaps between each phase, and a 4th phase at the end of July that is basically a full return to normal.
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A more aggressive schedule might be ok if we have slack in our ICU - and we don't (we are still precariously close to the edge there). I'd rather be more conservative and put a real end to it once and for all even it meant taking things more slowly than run the risk of having to retighten again if it didn't.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
A more aggressive schedule might be ok if we have slack in our ICU - and we don't.

AoD
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ICU doesn’t matter if cases can’t increase because of seasonality and vaccinations.

At current vaccinations it’s essentially impossible to reload the ICU in a significant way and it gets more and more challenging by the day.

as I said, by the middle of June we will have basically eliminated transmission and the ability for covid to cause hospitalization with vaccinations. The hospitalizations at that point will be from people not getting vaccinated by choice, and will only be in small numbers.

this plan represents a more conservative lifting of restrictions than last summer despite Canada having what will likely be the highest % of the population having their first shot in the G20 by then. It’s utterly stupefying.
 
innsertnamehere said:
ICU doesn’t matter if cases can’t increase because of seasonality and vaccinations.

At current vaccinations it’s essentially impossible to reload the ICU in a significant way and it gets more and more challenging by the day.

as I said, by the middle of June we will have basically eliminated transmission and the ability for covid to cause hospitalization with vaccinations. The hospitalizations at that point will be from people not getting vaccinated by choice, and will only be in small numbers.

this plan represents a more conservative lifting of restrictions than last summer despite Canada having what will likely be the highest % of the population having their first shot in the G20 by then. It’s utterly stupefying.
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It is likely, but not a guarantee - and the COVID figures we have suggest we aren't out of the woods yet. When you can't be sure, err on the side of caution.

Also, I don't think we will hit Phase III gates by mid-June; particularly 25% of the population having both shots.

AoD
 
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On the subject of vaccination, I got mine today.

Total time elapsed from being 7 minutes early for my appt, through the post procedure wait to see that there's no adverse reaction, and the follow-up appt being scheduled, 37 minutes.

Reasonably efficient, moderately crowded, they had the normal waiting room for a family health team set up with chairs well apart; though, not 2M....

But every chair was occupied pretty much. But the process moved with reasonable dispatch.

So far, *knock wood*, no reaction to speak of.
 
Northern Light said:
On the subject of vaccination, I got mine today.

Total time elapsed from being 7 minutes early for my appt, through the post procedure wait to see that there's no adverse reaction, and the follow-up appt being scheduled, 37 minutes.

Reasonably efficient, moderately crowded, they had the normal waiting room for a family health team set up with chairs well apart; though, not 2M....

But every chair was occupied pretty much. But the process moved with reasonable dispatch.

So far, *knock wood*, no reaction to speak of.
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I had mine on Monday and the only reaction (if I would even call it that) is soreness at the injection site for about 2 days. I was expecting something a little more intense.

AoD
 
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