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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

Max Sterling

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It's like you think that number's going to remain static at 5,300 if we let the virus run it's course. You lack the foresight to see that those numbers get *quite worse* if we aren’t taking precautions. Those death numbers are including all of the things we've been doing to date.

Obviously the number of deaths are still going to rise, but its NEVER going to rise more than people dying by other causes on a daily basis that are FAR HIGHER that don't get our leaders in a panic and the media keeping a running total of deaths everyday. Somehow its only covid that's causing this and not something like heart disease deaths that kill over 40,000 Ontarians annually, but we don't see the media keeping a daily running count of how many people by that cause even when its far deadlier to far more people than covid is.

Without them, it means thousands of non-seniors dead. It means nearly a million young and previously healthy people over the age of 20 with long term or permanent disabilities (long covid). Would you like to permanently require weekly dialysis or a pacemaker, let alone less life-changing things like having erectile dysfunction or never getting your sense of smell back? Because that is happening in all age groups. Brain damage, heart/vascular damage, kidney damage.10% of people infected covid are showing permanent or long term disability.

Is there actual data that shows a large number of people are indeed suffering long term significant side effects even after recovering from the virus? If so I'd genuinely like to see. Many times more people suffer after effects from surviving a stroke, heart attack or some other ailment but again no one is losing their minds over that like they're doing with covid.


We do so many things to prevent the other deaths you say "will happen anyway", so don't act like they just happen without interventions of their own. Doctors around the world recommend and have successfully used lockdowns in cases of severe outbreaks. Epidemiologists; Doctors of Public Health; The Medical and Scientific community who've spent their careers plus a decade in school working on this.

I agree that for an actual severe emergency, it requires extreme measures to stop it. I just don't believe that covid falls under that category. No one is saying it isn't a significant medical issue, but something that warrants this level of response to fight it? No, not in my opinion it doesn't.

Did I say only wealthy people can afford to eat healthy? No.
Did I say that healthy eating is a privilege of wealth? Yes.

I didn’t actually “declare” it either as though it were some kind of debatable opinion. I provided you links to studies from three universities and a food security organization saying exactly that; that if you’re poor, it’s harder to eat healthy. When you have little money the choice of eating healthy becomes moot as you need to spend as little as possible per calorie or you will be hungry.

Define 'poor'. Do you mean someone living in poverty in a modern western country or poor as in living in a very poor nation in Africa, South America, Asia etc? Because if we're talking about a poor person living in Canada, between food banks and buying wisely, you most definitely can eat decently healthy. Whether people want to make the effort to eat healthy is another matter though.

For a long time I didn't eat very healthy, but in recent years I'm trying much harder to do so by buying healthier foods and eating junkfood in much smaller amounts. Its a conscious decision to do so and I feel better these days along with more exercise.

You ignore every bit of data to continue repeating a fallacious argument. “Japan’s got less of a problem because they eat healthy”. I don't know how many times you need to be shown there are a multitude of other, bigger factors to understand you're wrong on this; that your opinion doesn't hold water, period.

I'm saying the Japanese have a healthy population in part because of diet, but also because they stay in decent shape and don't have vast amounts of their population being overweight and suffering from a variety of other issues because of poor lifestyle choices. This is why whether rich or poor, advanced or still developing, a country with a generally healthy, young population is mostly suffering far fewer covid deaths than those with older and/or less healthy populations like in the US.

If you disagree then can you please show me evidence that disproves this?

Frankly, you seem to know very little about Japanese culture, but also somehow believe you know that their culture *isn't* the reason why they're suffering less than we are. It makes the irony in your choice of screen names about as subtle as a high school band at the homecoming parade.

Again what does Japanese culture have anything to do with their government not telling their population to social distance and not gather in large crowds like they're still doing now even with declaring a state of emergency in parts of their nation? Even the average Japanse person hasn't felt the extreme urge to do so of their own accord or shame others into doing so. Im sure if told to do so, most Japanese would follow those rules, but I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the simple fact that the Japanese government hasn't felt the need to ask their people to do those things compared to Ontario/Canada's government which had been telling us to do so from nearly the beginning of the pandemic.

One country's government believes its still OK to have its population be in close proximity to each other and another nation's government believes that being close to other people should be limited as much as possible.

That much intention on having your opinion trump facts, figures and knowledge is not actually discussion, it's trolling. And claiming "I'm just having a discussion" is a pretty common trait amongst trolls.

Trolls are never welcome.

Most of my opinions ARE based on facts, figures and cold hard data which is why I don't understand why our leaders and experts are losing their minds over a virus that to date made up about 5% of all deaths in Ontario for almost an entire year compared to over 40,000 for heart disease and 60,000+ other deaths from other causes EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the province.

The facts show that hospitals have NEVER been and likely NEVER will be filled to the brim with covid patients and the stats show that the overwhelming number of deaths happen in a very small age group and a tiny percetage of Canada's entire population. Those are the facts that are indisputable to date and we should be making rational decisions BASED ON THOSE FACTS.
 
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Northern Light

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I am disinclined to weigh in on the exchange dominating this thread at the moment.

I think there are some useful points being made, by both parties.............

But of all things, can we please drop the healthy eating tangent?

It can be easily summed up thusly;

1) Healthy eating and lifestyle do have benefits, but most are medium to long term and will not materially affect susceptibility to any disease in the short term.

Therefore changing habits here at a societal scale is a longer term issue, not a Covid project.

2) What portion of any 'better' situation the Japanese have with Covid that can be attributed to healthier lifestyle has not yet been established, to my knowledge, in any peer-reviewed study.

Its likely there is some positive impact, but whether its 1% or 21% is currently unknowable.

3) People at any income level can make healthier choices; however, it is considerably easier to make the good choices when you have more money, time, and education, or, in short 'privilege'

I now return the thread to its currently scheduled programming.
 

SunriseChampion

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Seems the 7-day rolling average of daily cases has taken a hairpin turn downward in the last week here in Ontario.
We haven't seen a sustained hairpin in the charts yet.

The number of ICU patients is rising very slowly and the positivity rate is declining....and has been all week.

Maybe the anxious can breathe a bit easier....or nah?
 

W. K. Lis

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Nine dead in ‘rapid’ COVID-19 outbreak in Barrie LTC home

From link.

A deadly outbreak of COVID-19 has raced through a Barrie long-term-care home, claiming the lives of nine residents in 10 days and infecting more than 100 people, amid fears it could have been sparked by a coronavirus variant originating in the U.K.

The outbreak at Roberta Place was declared when a single case was found in a resident on Jan. 8. As of Sunday, there were 110 cases (62 residents and 48 staff members), according to local health officials.

Dr. Charles Gardner, the medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, acknowledged the spread was more rapid than in most COVID-19 outbreaks.

“The outbreak unfortunately has had a very rapid and high attack rate,” Gardner said in an emailed response to questions from the Star.

Gardner added that he issued an order to the home to accept aid from local physicians, hospitals and other organizations. The Canadian Red Cross has been brought in to help deal with the devastating outbreak, which had already infected 48 per cent of the residents and 38 per cent of staff by Sunday, Gardner said.

Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman said he’s monitoring the situation closely.

“I’m extremely concerned with the situation at Roberta Place and am working today with public health officials to try to support them in getting more medical personnel to the home,” Lehman said in an emailed statement.

Gardner added that tests are being performed to see if any of the cases in the outbreak were caused by the so-called U.K. variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, which is believed to be up to 50 per cent more transmissible than the virus already in circulation.

“Testing is currently underway to determine if the U.K. or other variant strain is part of this outbreak. Having said that, we do know that there have been cases of variant strain already found in Ontario, and it would not be surprising if the variant strain is found in this outbreak,” Gardner said.

A spokesperson for Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott called the prospect of outbreaks caused by the U.K. variant “very concerning.”

“Recent modelling showed that if community transmission of this variant occurs, Ontario could experience much higher case counts, (intensive care unit) occupancy and mortality,” said Alexandra Hilkene.

A spokesperson for the company that owns the Barrie home, Jarlette Health Services, said the company’s sympathy goes out to the families of the people stricken by COVID, especially those of the nine residents who died.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the loved ones who cherished these lives,” said Jarlette’s Stephanie Barber. Barber added that 71 residents and staff of the home were vaccinated on Saturday.

One person working at Roberta Place, whose identity is being protected by the Star because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly, said remaining staff — and outside workers brought in to help — are overwhelmed and stressed.

“Every single part of a long-term-care home is overwhelmed in a situation like this,” said the worker, who argued that the military should be called in.

“These are worse numbers than some homes saw when the army was called in during the first wave. There simply aren’t enough resources at the local level to deal with something on this scale,” the worker said.

A spokesperson for Ontario’s minister of long-term care, Dr. Merrilee Fullerton, said Roberta Place is close to signing a “voluntary management contract” with a local hospital to ensure it gets help to deal with the outbreak
The spokesperson, Krystle Caputo, stressed that the first line of defence against COVID outbreaks is for people to stay home.

“The single most important thing Ontarians can do right now to protect our most vulnerable is to stay at home. As we continue our vaccine rollout, this is our best defence against this virus. We remain committed to doing everything we can, along with our partners, to help stabilize the home and have it return to normal operations,” Caputo said.
Seniors advocate Laura Tamblyn Watts said the outbreak shows that Ontario didn’t make enough changes in the operation of long-term-care homes after the first wave of COVID-19 last spring.

“We learned lessons, but most of them weren’t used,” said Watts, CEO of the advocacy group CanAge. Watts believes there were three key steps the provincial government should have taken.

“In the summer, there should have been mass training and hiring. In the fall there should have been mandatory rapid testing for anyone going in and out of long-term-care homes. And right now, we need paid sick leave. As long as there isn’t paid sick leave, there will continue to be outbreaks,” said Watts.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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Northern Light

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Seems the 7-day rolling average of daily cases has taken a hairpin turn downward in the last week here in Ontario.
We haven't seen a sustained hairpin in the charts yet.

The number of ICU patients is rising very slowly and the positivity rate is declining....and has been all week.

Maybe the anxious can breathe a bit easier....or nah?

Whatever one's take on how to tackle 'the plague'............

Insofar as one has found the rapid rise in cases and ICU admissions disconcerting............

The last week is a marginal relief..........too early to call it a plateau though.

Moreover, with a system, nearing its limit in spots........a plateau is less a comforting place to be, than slightly less angst-ridden than earlier weeks.

With any luck......numbers will trend down in the week ahead as vaccinations in high-risk settings take hold.

But that's hardly a certainty as yet.
 

zang

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Obviously the number of deaths are still going to rise, but its NEVER going to rise more than people dying by other causes on a daily basis that are FAR HIGHER that don't get our leaders in a panic and the media keeping a running total of deaths everyday.
No, in fact, the extrapolated numbers I posted a few pages back actually point out to you that if we let things go to a (liberal) 60% herd immunity over a year, based our current death rate 190,000+ people will die. That's almost double a normal year in Ontario.

Is there actual data that shows a large number of people are indeed suffering long term significant side effects even after recovering from the virus? If so I'd genuinely like to see.
Lots of data.

"In August 2020, a NICE rapid review reported that acute myocardial injury is the most commonly described cardiovascular complication in Covid19, occurring in 8–12% of all those discharged with heart failure and arrythmias"

"Approximately 10% of patients with Covid-19 experience symptoms beyond 3–4 weeks. Patients call this “long Covid”. […] Participants with long Covid described symptoms in every part of the body which were sometimes severe or fluctuating, made worse by the uncertain prognosis and stalled recovery, all of which combined to make this a frightening, confusing and debilitating illness. […] Documented post-acute sequelae include myo- or pericarditis, heart failure, arrhythmias, and thrombo-embolic complications including myocardial infarction, stroke and venous thrombosis

In a young, low-risk population with ongoing symptoms, almost 70% of individuals have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. There are implications not only for burden of long COVID but also public health approaches which have assumed low risk in young people with no comorbidities.

"Recovering" doesn't even mean recovering anyway:

"In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis."

Many times more people suffer after effects from surviving a stroke, heart attack or some other ailment but again no one is losing their minds over that like they're doing with covid.

They're "losing their minds" because Covid itself is causing strokes and heart attacks (and brain, kidney, lung, liver, vascular damage). It's not an or, it's an *and*. Covid is making people very sick, even those who weren't sick to begin with.

For those with heart disease and other complications, it’s hastening death. Someone with congestive heart failure might have a good couple of decades left with treatment, Covid means a likely death.

I agree that for an actual severe emergency, it requires extreme measures to stop it. I just don't believe that covid falls under that category. No one is saying it isn't a significant medical issue, but something that warrants this level of response to fight it? No, not in my opinion it doesn't.

Having an opinion isn't the same as pretending an opinion is fact.

Define 'poor'. Do you mean someone living in poverty in a modern western country or poor as in living in a very poor nation in Africa, South America, Asia etc?

As in, people living in poverty in North America. Didn’t bother to even glance at the studies, did you?

Because if we're talking about a poor person living in Canada, between food banks and buying wisely, you most definitely can eat decently healthy.

You’re moving the goalposts here. Using a food bank is not “being able to afford to eat healthy.” It’s depending on charity.

I'm saying the Japanese have a healthy population in part because of diet, but also because they stay in decent shape and don't have vast amounts of their population being overweight and suffering from a variety of other issues because of poor lifestyle choices. This is why whether rich or poor, advanced or still developing, a country with a generally healthy, young population is mostly suffering far fewer covid deaths than those with older and/or less healthy populations like in the US.

If you disagree then can you please show me evidence that disproves this?

Stop right there, buddy. You’re the one making the claim. The burden of proof is on you. Argument from ignorance doesn’t play here.

Japan reacted much faster (30+ days) from day zero than Canada did and has mask wearing when ill as a social norm. Two of the known major interventions for this virus were in place from almost day one.

Again what does Japanese culture have anything to do with their government not telling their population to social distance and not gather in large crowds like they're still doing now even with declaring a state of emergency in parts of their nation?

Here's where it shows you’re outright lying and haven’t even bothering to read what you’re responding to (when I posted this before)

Yes, the Japanese government has told people to social distance and not gather in crowds. It's *literally* on the "New Lifestyle" information put out by Prime Minister Abe's office.

Read this, I dare you: https://japan.kantei.go.jp/ongoingtopics/COVID19Images/COVID19_NewLifeStyle.jpg

Even the average Japanse person hasn't felt the extreme urge to do so of their own accord or shame others into doing so.

Again, my wife lived Japan for four years. If it weren’t for Covid, we’d have been in Japan this past year to visit friends. We are in regular contact with several Japanese people, and I can tell you your statements about what Japanese people think about Covid is way off base.

Most of my opinions ARE based on facts, figures and cold hard data which is why I don't understand why our leaders and experts are losing their minds over a virus that to date made up about 5% of all deaths in Ontario for almost an entire year compared to over 40,000 for heart disease and 60,000+ other deaths from other causes EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the province.

Facts figures and cold hard data?

You haven't posted a single link to any data yet. So far it's been a bunch of bunk and outright lies. Meanwhile I'm the one who keeps posting study data you willfully ignore.

Who're you trying to gaslight here?

The facts show that hospitals have NEVER been and likely NEVER will be filled to the brim with covid patients and the stats show that the overwhelming number of deaths happen in a very small age group and a tiny percetage of Canada's entire population. Those are the facts that are indisputable to date and we should be making rational decisions BASED ON THOSE FACTS.

You're making the claim, show the proof. Come back when you have some evidence of those "cold, hard facts" you claim to be talking about.
 

Northern Light

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The new hospital in Vaughan is apparently set to open in the next 2-4 weeks (early February) and we'll begin its life as a dedicated Covid facility.

So say the Globe and Mail, apparently w/leaked info.


Not sure about the strategy...............but the useful thing here will simply be much needed additional hospital beds and ICU capacity.
 

W. K. Lis

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With almost a year of COVID-19 experience, I would have thought they would have ordered and delivered extra ventilators and create extra ICU units in available office buildings by now. Unless the countries that make the ventilators get first dibs on them (outsourcing of medical supplies to reduce costs thanks to Conservatives "cost savings").
 

Northern Light

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Max Sterling

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No, in fact, the extrapolated numbers I posted a few pages back actually point out to you that if we let things go to a (liberal) 60% herd immunity over a year, based our current death rate 190,000+ people will die. That's almost double a normal year in Ontario.

I'm kinda unclear here. What kind of projections would have us going from about 5,400 deaths to date to 190,000+ covid deaths in a single year in Ontario alone?!? Not sure if that's what you mean or something else.

They're "losing their minds" because Covid itself is causing strokes and heart attacks (and brain, kidney, lung, liver, vascular damage). It's not an or, it's an *and*. Covid is making people very sick, even those who weren't sick to begin with.

For those with heart disease and other complications, it’s hastening death. Someone with congestive heart failure might have a good couple of decades left with treatment, Covid means a likely death.

From the data you listed the numbers aren't nothing, but they still don't represent the vast majority of people who have been infected and survived the virus. Also why not allow more time to pass and come back in 6-12 months and see where we stand and whether people are fully/largely recovered from their post-covid ailments or they're still suffering just as badly? This isn't the first virus/disease/other medical issue that has taken people a long time to recover from.

As in, people living in poverty in North America. Didn’t bother to even glance at the studies, did you?

You’re moving the goalposts here. Using a food bank is not “being able to afford to eat healthy.” It’s depending on charity.

I mentioned food banks because they're available for people to use if they really needed to. Why wouldn't you if you felt you needed extra help? Also even if we're talking about taking food banks out of the equation, what I'm saying is that if you can afford to feed yourself and/or your family with the money you make, then it doesn't cost much more if anything to replace the non-healthy food you're buying with more healthy foods.

You seem to imply that if it cost you $50 a week buying less healthy food that it would cost significantly more than $50 to buy healthier foods in its place and that's what I'm disagreeing with.

Japan reacted much faster (30+ days) from day zero than Canada did and has mask wearing when ill as a social norm. Two of the known major interventions for this virus were in place from almost day one.

Japan 'reacted faster' because the virus originated from their next door neighbor. I'm sure Canada would've taken quicker measures as well had the virus originated from the US. As well what can you do when back in February our PM and many other politicians were more concerned about fighting supposed racism and descrimination against Chinese Canadians than they were of preparing for the virus and stopping people from China and elsewhere from coming into Canada?

Also I'm mostly talking about the months after many nations started implementing shutdowns and other harsh measures in their countries to stop the spread while Japan largely resisted doing so until absolutely necessary and then reopened as quick as they could for those areas.

Here's where it shows you’re outright lying and haven’t even bothering to read what you’re responding to (when I posted this before)

Yes, the Japanese government has told people to social distance and not gather in crowds. It's *literally* on the "New Lifestyle" information put out by Prime Minister Abe's office.

Read this, I dare you: https://japan.kantei.go.jp/ongoingtopics/COVID19Images/COVID19_NewLifeStyle.jpg

So one little image is suppose to prove that Japan has taken very strong measures anywhere close to what's been taken in many western countries to try and stop the spread and for the same amount of time?

Their state of emergency during the 1st wave happened early April, expanded to cover the entire nation like a week later and then in early May most of Japan excluding a few hotspots were already reopening and by the end of May the country was operating with relatively few restrictions in place. They understood that living with the virus made more sense that trying to stop the spread completely which is near impossible unless you take and often maintain strict if not extreme measures.

Again, my wife lived Japan for four years. If it weren’t for Covid, we’d have been in Japan this past year to visit friends. We are in regular contact with several Japanese people, and I can tell you your statements about what Japanese people think about Covid is way off base.

I'm not saying that the Japanese people don't care about the virus, I'm saying that they may care, but they're certainly not taking any of the strict measures that Canadians and many other western countries are in trying to slow/stop the spread and they haven't been doing so for many months now. After their 1st wave state of emergency was lifted, they largely went back to normal life. Namely crowds weren't told to disperse and people weren't constantly told by authorities and other people that social distancing was necessary.

That's why we have tons of videos on youtube showing people living relatively normally compared to much of the rest of the world. If it weren't for the majority of people wearing masks and a ton of partitions in businesses, you wouldn't even know a pandemic was going on there right now.

Check out this guy's Twitch stream:


He lives in the heart of Tokyo and live streams regularly of him going out enjoying the life there and you tell me how many Japanese people you see in his videos look like they're anywhere near worried as many people in Canada are? Dude walks around among crowds and goes to various bars and restaurants other places enjoying himself like most Japanese are and guess what? There aren't cops and other authorities constantly breaking up all those crowds or telling their people that they're violating social distancing rules and there aren't politicians and medical experts constantly admonishing their population for not staying apart.

You keep telling me that Japanese people are worried about the virus and maybe they are, but its certainly not enough to stop many if not most of them from going out and living their lives as close to normal as they can. I'll believe the guy who's live streaming IN JAPAN almost daily as to how the Japanese are feeling about the virus and how they're living with it compared to someone who's speculating from a couple thousand miles away in another country.

Facts figures and cold hard data?

You haven't posted a single link to any data yet. So far it's been a bunch of bunk and outright lies. Meanwhile I'm the one who keeps posting study data you willfully ignore.

Which data are you talking about specficially? Almost all the Ontario covid data I get straight from their website:


Everything else is just a quick google search away.
 

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