Next Mayor of Toronto?

[nfitz]

The most notable thing is the huge other vote. My guess is that represents a desire for a Rob Ford type conservative that Liberals Rossi and Smitherman have failed to meet.

I'd think that that most conservatives would be mortified of a Rob Ford-style Conservative! My gosh, what a campaign that would be ... the media would have some interesting challenges about what they should be saying about his various legal issues and other problems.

Not sure what such polls mean; Rossi seems to be campaigning to 905, and surely 680 news is capturing that "vote". Other polls I've seen for just Toronto voters seem to have Smitherman at 40-something and Giambrone in a clear second.

 

[SimonP]

Rob Ford? Can you imagine? Could David Miller really have alienated so many people as to push even lefty Toronto that far to the right?

I'm not saying there is any chance of Ford winning the city, but I do think he could easily win 30% of 680 news listeners.

 

[Eug]

I doubt it. Even the right thinks Ford is a buffoon.

 

[SimonP]

From the Globe and Mail:

Poll puts Ford in third place

Councillor Rob Ford is getting serious about a potential mayoralty run, going so far as to pay for an internal poll

The poll puts former deputy premier George Smitherman way out in front with 46 per cent of decided voters, TTC chair Adam Giambrone, who formally joins the race today, in second with 17 per cent, and Mr. Ford in third with 13 per cent. Mr. Ford leads declared candidates Joe Pantalone, Rocco Rossi and Giorgio Mammoliti, according to the poll.

Mr. Ford was surprised to see Mr. Smitherman polling ahead of him in Etobicoke, where Mr. Ford is a popular local councillor best known for railing against spending at City Hall. The poll suggests Mr. Smitherman enjoys the backing of 33 per cent of decided voters there, compared to 27 per cent for Mr. Ford.

But Mr. Ford wasn't surprised that he polled miserably in the old city of Toronto, where he's long been a bugbear of the left.

"I'm getting killed downtown," he said.

 

[Eug]

Colour me surprised. I guess even bad press (which Mr. Ford has a lot of) does get votes. Perhaps that's what Giambrone was going for. Any press is good press.

 

[SimonP]

Colour me surprised. I guess even bad press (which Mr. Ford has a lot of) does get votes. Perhaps that's what Giambrone was going for. Any press is good press.

It is an internal poll done by a little known company (which I can't even find a website for). One old campaign manager adage is "lying about polls isn't really lying" so I would be cautious about those numbers.

 

[Eug]

Hmmm... Yeah, I was just about to post that. He paid for the poll himself.

P.S. I wonder how many people support Smitherman's statement that Giambrone should resign from the TTC if he's running for mayor.

 

[nfitz]

Hmmm... Yeah, I was just about to post that. He paid for the poll himself.

Before he's declared himself a candidate? Doesn't that violate the election financing laws? I thought you couldn't spend money until you'd declared. Though wouldn't be the first time he's broken spending rules. Perhaps the 13% who said they'd vote for Ford are doing so, so that he does run, and then he'll be off council. Hmm ...

P.S. I wonder how many people support Smitherman's statement that Giambrone should resign from the TTC if he's running for mayor.

Wouldn't distancing himself from TTC help Giambrone at this stage? I'd think anyone running against Giambrone would want him front and centre at TTC!

 

[SimonP]

I went by the Giambrone event at around 6:00. The capacity of the venue is around 700, but it was already packed and I couldn't get in. I did get in later, after missing his speech. It was an impressive turnout. A very young crowd, which is very different from a typical campaign launch in this city. There was great energy and enthusiasm. Giambrone's supporters are passionate about him, but I'm not sure if such youthful zeal will translate well to other parts of the city.

 

[urbandreamer]

So far, all the candidates are white. Where the hell are some ambitious newer Canadians representing?

 

[CDL.TO]

From the Globe today:

The Globe and Mail ran with a new poll today on the race. It was done by a polling company called Logistics Group who I have never heard of before as a polling firm (which does not per se mean anything about the quality of the poll). What does mean something though is the poll was paid for by Rob Ford and shockingly, the poll has Rob Ford doing very well. This was not a newsworthy poll with one tiny little exception. Rob Ford is not yet a registered candidate for mayor. It is a violation of Toronto election laws to incur any expenses to further a mayoral bid until you are a registered candidate for mayor. I'm not sure how this poll can be classified as anything other than an election expense. Ya, this poll was a bad idea all around.

Adam Giambrone is declaring his candidacy tonight. As I have written previously, Giambrone is a viable candidate who can win this thing outright. The question I would ask Giambrone at his launch if I was a reporter is: "Are you resigning as TTC Chair tomorrow morning?" George Smitherman rightly resigned from the provincial cabinet when he decided to run for mayor because remaining in cabinet would have been a clear conflict of interest. Additionally, campaigning for the big job is a full-time job as is being a cabinet minister. As we have seen in the last few weeks, turning around the TTC will take full-time attention from its chief. Remaining as chairman while running in an election for mayor is no less of a conflict - real or perceived - than if Smitherman had stayed in cabinet. Given the pros that Giambrone is assembling around him, I would be surprised if he doesn't kill this conflict before it develops and resigns his TTC post this week.

Update: Turns out Giambrone plans on remaining as TTC chair through the campaign. Put aside the conflict. Put aside that running for mayor is a full-time job, as is (or should be) acting as TTC chair. Politically, this is a terrible decision by Giambrone. He will continue to own day-to-day negative stories about the TTC the same way he has during the disastrous past few weeks for our transit organisation. Whether that's fair or unfair (and no, I am not one of those people who curse his name every morning when my streetcar is late or my driver is rude to another passenger), it will continue to grow as an albatross around Giambrone's neck. On day one, Giambrone made the first mistake of his campaign.

Another update: George Smitherman has called on Giambrone to resign as TTC chairman. If nothing else, this ensures that Giambrone's launch day won't get clean coverage. Who could possibly seen this coming 12-hours or so ago?

 

[urbandreamer]

^Me.

Meanwhile, I'm advising one of the mayoral candidates.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

..., and the oh so famous parking the bus inexplicably for several minutes at a time during a trip to go buy a coffee. ...

For this reason alone I wonder why every subway station (in particular those with bus loops) doesn't have a coffee shop in it's fare paid area. It's far better, IMHO, to have a driver grab a coffee while stopped at the station than stopping at a street corner on route. Nearly every route in the city passes through a subway sation.

Apologies for being off topic

 

[SunriseChampion]

P.S. I wonder how many people support Smitherman's statement that Giambrone should resign from the TTC if he's running for mayor.

I, for one, do indeed.

Man, Rob Ford kills me. I used to live in his ward and would call him to complain about this and that as it came up and he always made me laugh over the phone cause he would go off! Man, would he go off! Ha! Priceless.

Anyway, the whole news/talk radio right-wing segment of the population could at most stomach John Tory. Any farther out and the support would drop significantly.

 

[kettal]

Rob Ford running would be good because he dilutes the vote of other idiots. And I'm not trying to imply right-wing candidates are idiots, necessarily. Just the ones in the race so far.

His presence at debates will make them more entertaining, but less substantial.