Latest Federal polls

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Below is a list making the rounds about how to vote against Harper based on the www.projectdemocracy.ca website.

"How to vote ABH

NDP should vote Liberal in
BC – Fleetwood-Port Kells
BC – North Vancouver
BC – Vancouver South
Alberta – Edmonton Centre
Ont – Ajax Pickering
Ont – Brampton Springdale
Ont – Brampton West
Ont – Guelph
Ont - Kingston and the Islands
Ont – Kitchener Waterloo
ONT - Mississuaga – Erindale
ONT – Ottawa Orleans
Ont – Vaughan
QC – Ahuntsic
QC – Brome- Missisquai
QC – Haute Gaspisie
NB – Moncton
NS – West Nova
PEI –Egmont
NL –Random-Burrin

Liberals should vote NDP in
BC – Burnaby – Douglas
BC - Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca
BC – North Surrey
Alberta – Edmonton East
Sask – Palliser
Sask – Saskatoon –Rosetown
Nunavut
Ont – Oshawa
Ont – Welland
QC – Abitibi – Baie James
QC – Alfred –Pellan
QC - Beauport-Limoilou
QC – Chambly – Borduas
QC – Chateaugay –St Constant
QC – Compton – Stanstead
QC – Laval
QC – Longueuil
QC – Louis Hebert
QC – Marc-Aurele-Fortin
QC – Quebec city
QC –Rosemont
(pretty much most of Quebec)

Of Course Both Liberals and NDPers should vote Green in
BC – Saanich Gulf Islands"

 

[Admiral Beez]

Below is a list making the rounds about how to vote against Harper based on the www.projectdemocracy.ca website. /QUOTE]I find it funny that a website claiming to support democracy is actively telling others to vote for parties that they support in order to increase the likelihood of a result preferred by this organization.

 

[Earth Heals Herself]

Below is a list making the rounds about how to vote against Harper based on the www.projectdemocracy.ca website. /QUOTE]I find it funny that a website claiming to support democracy is actively telling others to vote for parties that they support in order to increase the likelihood of a result preferred by this organization.

A little hypocrytical, no? How can you believe in democracy and tell others how they should vote?

 

[Observer Walt]

Agreed. In any case, I think "strategic voting" has not had a very successful historyin Canadian elections. Why don't we simply ask people to vote as they really would prefer, keeping in mind that even a losing vote "counts".

 

[grey]

A little hypocrytical, no? How can you believe in democracy and tell others how they should vote?

Nobody is telling anybody how to vote. That website provides poll and riding data for information purposes only. You could use it to find ridings where Conservative MPs need help, if you wanted.

That said, it's absolutely ridiculous that strategic voting is even a phenomenon. That's why we need electoral reform. And guess which parties don't support that?

 

[Mongo]

Agreed. In any case, I think "strategic voting" has not had a very successful historyin Canadian elections. Why don't we simply ask people to vote as they really would prefer, keeping in mind that even a losing vote "counts".

How does a losing vote count?

True, in proportional representation systems every vote does count, since it goes toward electing a member of the political party of your choice, but under first-past-the-post, every single vote that is not for the eventual winner in that riding is a dead loss.

 

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Torontoist's endorsement for the election.

 

[Mongo]

From the Ekos final report:

Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has now become a point of consensus. The final estimates of party support including today’s final sample are 33.9 points for the Conservatives, 31.2 for the NDP, 21.0 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 6.0 for the Green Party.

When we adjust this based on an index which predicts the most likely to vote we arrive at 34.0 points for the Conservatives, 31.6 for the NDP, 20.8 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 5.9 for the Green Party.

As shocking as those numbers would have seemed just a few weeks ago, they are now more or less stable and undoubtedly accurate. The only real question remaining, and frankly this is more a matter of anecdotal curiosity at this stage, is how these translate into the new seat distribution in Canada’s next parliament.

Recognising the vagaries of sampling error, vote splitting and other factors, we are going to provide an estimate at the national level which is couched around a somewhat arbitrary band of uncertainty.

After the ballots are counted tomorrow, we expect to see the following:

1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats
2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats
3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats
4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats
5) GP: 1 seat

 

[adma]

Agreed. In any case, I think "strategic voting" has not had a very successful historyin Canadian elections. Why don't we simply ask people to vote as they really would prefer, keeping in mind that even a losing vote "counts".

Or, for that matter, let the voters decide what they feel is "strategic", according to local conditions, rather than forcing the decision on their behalf. As it's always been--that's why certain seats have been forever straight Lib-Con tussles, even if the demos in certain neighbourhoods would incline NDP were they distributed into more compatible jurisdictions...

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

A little hypocrytical, no? How can you believe in democracy and tell others how they should vote?

tell that to anyone running for office.

 

[Earth Heals Herself]

tell that to anyone running for office.

They're all hypocrites as well. You just need to choose the one you dislike the least. I can't resist Harper's husky eyes. They convince me to vote blue.

 

[nfitz]

He can't prorogue indefinitely. Unless a party is willing to support him, he will quickly loose confidence in the house. If Parliament hasn't even accepted the throne speech, there is little doubt the Governor-General would ask the number 2 party to form a government.

But I don't know why you think that it would be a coalition. That's never happened since confederation. Normally the second party would also govern with support of other parties, vote-to-vote, in the same manner the Liberals and Conservatives have already governing since 2004.

I see no reason to buy into Harper's coalition fearmongering.

 

[Urban Shocker]

... especially since the Conservatives are, themselves, a cobbled together coalition of former Progressive Conservatives, Reform/Alliance supporters and God only knows what other murky right-wingers, that we're a member of the NATO coalition, that we're a coalition bombing Libya etc. etc.

 

[Kitsune]

Green's should be able to get there first seat too: Elizabeth May has a 7 point lead over the incumbent conservative in her BC riding.... and 20+ over the liberals and ndp

 

[MetroMan]

A seat for the Greens is no doubt a seat for the NDP. Should give May a little bit of clout if the Liberal+NDP+Green vs Conservatives seat count is as close as the latest polls show.

So are the Conservatives being completely shut out of Quebec? I know of several incumbents that will be defeated by the NDP and May appears to be taking one as well. If so, gains in some Ontario ridings because of NDP/Liberal vote splitting may be nullified.

I don't dream of Jack somehow winning the election straight out, but a weakened Harper minority is a good outcome given that we appeared headed for a Conservative Majority at points during the campaign.