Latest Federal polls

[Admiral Beez]

Instead of fighting to occupy the mushy middle ground, the new dynamic in a post-Liberal world will consist of two parties that offer distinctly different platform choices.

This is exactly what happened in the UK, where the long established and historic Liberal party collapsed, leaving the Conservatives and Labour as the only two parties in Parliament. It makes sense to give the electorate a clear difference to choose from.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

i guess the middle ground is made from quicksand.

 

[Urban Shocker]

Well, Harper has had to govern from that position and clearly doesn't like to do so. That's why he keeps pushing for a majority and warning of the perils of a coalition.

With a couple of days to go, if the apparent polling trend continues and we see some sort of Kim Campbell-like meltown of the Bloc and the Grits, the majority government Harper keeps droning on about may not be Conservative at all.

 

[Jonny5]

Breaking news from Sun TV: Jack Layton was noted by police 16 years ago as being in a massage parlour doing nothing illegal. And people say they aren't going to be a legitamate news organization...

More interesting though is where did this come from. Now I know there is the obvious source, but where did they get it from?
EDIT: The actual story sources the story to an anonomys TPS officer.

I recall a recent story in The Star about how TPS keeps a database of names of anyone who has ever interacted with the police in any way. You could be entered in as a criminal, a victim, a witness, or just someone stopped and spoken to on the street. The Star story was about how the database is never purged of old data. TPS keeps it forever but they say it is completely confidential and no one has to worry about it if they're not doing anything criminal. Yeah right.

 

[typezed]

The most powerful cop in this province over the last couple decades now sits in the Conservative caucus. Might he have aided this last minute leak? In the article, the cops explain to Layton that he is putting himself in danger of being extorted by Chinese triads. But it wasn't the triads he had to worry about exploiting secrets. It was our police, 15 years later, when the info suddenly became useful. Our city's biggest Mob.

 

[abcde]

Election Almanac has a great compilation of all the polling data collected throughout the election:

Nationally:

Ontario:

Quebec:

Atlantic Canada:

Prairies:

BC:

Seems like vote-splitting for the left all over Canada is quite likely... especially in key swing ridings. It will be interesting to see how the NDP wave will translate into seats all over the country!

 

[Mongo]

Seems like vote-splitting for the left all over Canada is quite likely... especially in key swing ridings. It will be interesting to see how the NDP wave will translate into seats all over the country!

Looking at those regional break-outs, I would say that vote-splitting for the left is really only a problem in Ontario and the Mariitimes. Quebec is an NDP landslide, BC has the NDP far in front of the Liberals, and in the Prairies (especially Alberta), it's a Conservative landslide. Of course, since Ontario has the largest collection of ridings, it is the worst place for vote-splitting to happen.

It's all up to how the electorate breaks on election day. If the Ontario left breaks for Layton we have an NDP government, if they remain split we probably have a Conservative majority.

edit: That is a very handy website abcde, I have plotted the projections of the seat totals using the "regional breakdowns of national polls" method:

Here are the daily averages of the same projections:

 

[Kitsune]

Seat Projections: http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

NDP are poised to double there previous all time high.... infact, they are projected to get more seats in Quebec at this point then they have ever held nationally.

 

[MetroMan]

Seat Projections: http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

NDP are poised to double there previous all time high.... infact, they are projected to get more seats in Quebec at this point then they have ever held nationally.

Damn it! While I'm happy to see the Conservatives comfortably distant of a Majority, if these projections hold true, the NDP+Liberals will be just 2 seats short of a coalition Majority! They would need 2 Bloq MPs to help. To further complicate the possibility of Jack Layton becoming PM, Harper could throw a nice big bone to Quebec in exchange for the Bloq giving the Conservatives the exact number of seats for a Majority under a deal.

Here's hoping that 2 Conservative and/or Bloq seats fall to the NDP or Liberals.

 

[Mongo]

...if these projections hold true, the NDP+Liberals will be just 2 seats short of a coalition Majority! They would need 2 Bloq MPs to help. To further complicate the possibility of Jack Layton becoming PM, Harper could throw a nice big bone to Quebec in exchange for the Bloq giving the Conservatives the exact number of seats for a Majority under a deal.

Other than the Quebec sovereignty issue, the BQ and the NDP are actually quite close in social and economic issues. I could easily see (as was stated in another thread) several BQ members crossing the aisle to become NDP members, giving the NDP a chance to form a government.

 

[Mongo]

Here are the federal poll results (including the average of three poll results from yesterday's polling -- Ekos, Nanos and Forum Research)

From the just-released Ekos poll report:

The Conservatives are at 34.6 points, while the NDP is three points back at 31.4 and the Liberals at 20.4. The Green Party is at 6.3 and the Bloc have dropped further to a modern low of 5.4 points nationally and a mere 22.8 points in Quebec. Of those who are “certain to vote”, things are tighter still with the Conservative lead reduced to a scant 2.4% (34.8 vs. 32.4, which is statistically insignificant). The Green Party is reduced to 5.6 points and all other parties remain unaffected.

Using these numbers, and we will reserve the final forecast until later this evening, we would see a Conservative minority where the NDP were within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals combined would have a narrow majority between them. This means that if there was common will between the NDP and the Liberals, they would have both the legal (and according to our recent polling on the topic) the moral authority to swiftly dispatch Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.

 

[Eug]

I keep thinking of volatile Middle Eastern or European coalition governments.

 

[MetroMan]

Other than the Quebec sovereignty issue, the BQ and the NDP are actually quite close in social and economic issues. I could easily see (as was stated in another thread) several BQ members crossing the aisle to become NDP members, giving the NDP a chance to form a government.

Good point. If the Bloq loses as many seats as it appears it will, these MPs will be fighting for their political survival because from the looks of it, there will be no Bloq by the next election. They're better off going over to the NDP, which will automatically guarantee that they'll be safe in the next election.

 

[nfitz]

Damn it! While I'm happy to see the Conservatives comfortably distant of a Majority, if these projections hold true, the NDP+Liberals will be just 2 seats short of a coalition Majority!

Even if they were in coalition majority territory, this is a very unlikely outcome. It's a very rare thing, and requires the parties to work closely together. And do you think that's going to happen after the Liberal party sold the Layton smear to the Toronto Sun?

If there was a coalition, I'd expect it would be more likely between the Conservatives and Liberals - or even the Conservatives and NDP, similar to what has happened in England.

The most likely outcome however, is simply is the Conservatives would try and govern as a minority, and if they were quickly taken down, then the number 2 party would try the same, perhaps with an agreement of support; similar to what happened in 1985.

 

[MetroMan]

The most likely outcome however, is simply is the Conservatives would try and govern as a minority, and if they were quickly taken down, then the number 2 party would try the same, perhaps with an agreement of support; similar to what happened in 1985.

Harper will simply prorogue Parliament to avoid a coalition trying to form government and either another election will be called when parliament sits again or we'll have the other parties waiting out the best opportunity to call one while we wait another year or more with Harper doing what he wants without consulting the other parties.