afransen
Senior Member
I highly doubt that trucking will collapse. What you all seem to be forgetting is that once the price of oil rises enough, the substitution effect will kick in for fossil fuel alternatives. The upshot of that is that energy will probably never rise above say $5 - $8/L gasoline or diesel equivalent. I rather expect it won't rise above $3/L equivalent. While this makes trucking a whole lot less attractive, it'll hardly kill it. It will, however, increase the attractiveness of rail and sea transport to some extent, but given the built form of our cities, a certain degree of trucking will exist for a good long time. I think the only form of trucking that might be seriously threatened is long-haul trucking of dry goods (perishable will likely remain on trucks), which will likely rely more on intermodal.
The continental rail freight network is going to need to become much more sophisticated to seriously challenge the speed or versatility of trucking, even if fuel costs soar substantially.
The continental rail freight network is going to need to become much more sophisticated to seriously challenge the speed or versatility of trucking, even if fuel costs soar substantially.