High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[mpd618]

The line is about more than just serving the most people. A lot of tech companies out in Waterloo Region are demanding some form of higher order transit between it and Toronto before they devote resources to building offices there, or even keeping existing ones.

How necessary is the HSR to KW anyway? ... How many people are there doing this that would not be served by RER? Is that number enough to justify another service?

BMO is right - this isn't even about serving an existing ridership demand so much as creating it. The argument has been about the huge value to Ontario's economy of connecting a major engineering hub and innovation generator (Kitchener-Waterloo) to a major business and financial centre (Toronto) with fast, shiny transit. It would dramatically improve Ontario's competitiveness with places like New York and Silicon Valley in the decision to set up business in Ontario at all.

 

[TOareaFan]

BMO is right - this isn't even about serving an existing ridership demand so much as creating it. The argument has been about the huge value to Ontario's economy of connecting a major engineering hub and innovation generator (Kitchener-Waterloo) to a major business and financial centre (Toronto) with fast, shiny transit. It would dramatically improve Ontario's competitiveness with places like New York and Silicon Valley in the decision to set up business in Ontario at all.

I get that argument (not sure I agree with it but I get it).....but how much more of that effect do you get from the HSR than you would already get from the shny new electric RER trains running frequently between Toronto and KW?

 

[salsa]

I get that argument (not sure I agree with it but I get it).....but how much more of that effect do you get from the HSR than you would already get from the shny new electric RER trains running frequently between Toronto and KW?

By promising HSR, you win extra votes in London, thus helping to keep the Libs in power, and thus ensuring that RER will happen too.

 

[TOareaFan]

By promising HSR, you win extra votes in London, thus helping to keep the Libs in power, and thus ensuring that RER will happen too.

except that is not how it played.......it was all about getting HSR to KW and there was a bit of an add on later in the election saying it would extend to London. I was actually at one of the first speeches Murray gave about HSR and the word "London" was not used once.

 

[mpd618]

I get that argument (not sure I agree with it but I get it).....but how much more of that effect do you get from the HSR than you would already get from the shny new electric RER trains running frequently between Toronto and KW?

That's a good question. I'm sure it depends on the speed, frequency, and branding / communications of that service.

 

[rbt]

By promising HSR, you win extra votes in London, thus helping to keep the Libs in power, and thus ensuring that RER will happen too.

Just as importantly, you can promise to spend equal amounts across the province (50% in GTA, 50% outside it); and HSR is a genuinely useful transit project to people outside the GTA. There aren't many of those and Ottawa doesn't need another $8B in transit.

 

[ssiguy2]

No matter which route they are going to have to connect London. South Western Ontario is probably the most ignored region of the province by Queen's Park. The connection to London is essential and more so now that it's been promised. If the line were to stop at Kitchener then it would be seen, quite correctly, as yet another Toronto transit project funded by all Ontarians. There will be political hell to pay in the South West which already feels neglected by a Toronto centric Queen's Park. Sarnia is the largest city in the province without access to a university despite being the centre of 130,000. I know Barrie doesn't have one but there is GO rail right from Barrie to York U.

People in the South West are infuriated how the province shoved all those ugly windmills down their throats in order to appease the fine sensibilities of Torontonians. They have blighted the rural landscape and their health effects are beginning to be exposed. Urbanites wanted green power to make themselves feel all comfy-cozy but you sure don't see any going up in the GTA.

London and the South West need fast transit to Toronto and ideally that means a London non-stop from Toronto. The more stops the less rapid it will be and will be little better than the lousy service they have now.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Unlike the "inside GTA" fund, the "outside GTA" fund is allowed to be spent on highways, and I have a feeling a large portion of it will be. You can use maybe $5 billion of it on transit projects, and beyond that its all going to be road projects.

MTO over the next 10 years needs a lot of work done on "outside GTA" highways anyway, the 400 widening, 11 widening to at least Orillia, 417 extension, northern highways twinning, QEW widening, etc.


What will be really interesting is how they define "inside" and"outside" GTA. Does Hamilton count as inside GTA? because if it doesn't, that likely moves around $1.3 billion dollars in spending. (LRT and Hamilton Junction grade separation)

Eligible transit projects outside of the GTA essentially include:

HSR $500 million (apparently, I feel it will be higher)
Ottawa phase 2 LRT $2 billion
London BRT ~$700 million
Kitchener LRT phase 2 ~$800 million
Kitchener Mobility Hub $150 million
Kitchener GO AD2W ~$500 million (estimate)
Niagara GO expansion $300 million (estimate)
Barrie GO AD2W $500 million (estimate)

Total: ~$5 billion

Hamilton LRT $800 million
Hamilton GO expansion (Junction separation) $500 million


Really I can only see them spending around $7-8 billion max on transit initiatives outside of the GTA, if Hamilton is considered "outside". That leaves anywhere from $5-8 billion for roads on top of MTOs regular budget of $2 billion annually.

 

[gweed123]

Eligible transit projects outside of the GTA essentially include:

HSR $500 million (apparently, I feel it will be higher)
Ottawa phase 2 LRT $2 billion
London BRT ~$700 million
Kitchener LRT phase 2 ~$800 million
Kitchener Mobility Hub $150 million
Kitchener GO AD2W ~$500 million (estimate)
Niagara GO expansion $300 million (estimate)
Barrie GO AD2W $500 million (estimate)

Total: ~$5 billion

Hamilton LRT $800 million
Hamilton GO expansion (Junction separation) $500 million

Nitpick here, but the Provincial contribution to Ottawa's Phase 2 is only $1 billion. The plan is $3 billion in total, with $1 billion hopefully coming from each level of government. The feds are the only ones who haven't committed anything yet.

As for the HSR and RER thing, here's how I see it:

The Province is setting up what amounts to a tri-layered rail system: GO RER for the GTA, a longer distance GO system for places like Kitchener and Niagara Falls, and HSR for major inter-city travel. The reality is that the HSR and the Kitchener GO service are serving two different markets. The former is serving the business or leisure travel market, the latter is serving the commuter market.

The key to the entire HSR plan in my opinion is a direct connection to Pearson. There has been talk on here (I believe stemming from an article that was posted) that "Pearson Terminal 2" will in fact end up being the HSR terminal. This would allow people from London or Kitchener to take the HSR to Pearson to catch a connecting international or long distance national flight, since very much isn't offered out of either of those two cities.

Will the HSR, GO REX, and GO+ (for lack of a better term, although personally I think it's a pretty good way to describe it), overlap in infrastructure in some places? Absolutely. But I don't think they'll be serving the same market. Business execs from elsewhere who have companies in K-W are going to fly into Pearson and take an HSR train directly to Kitchener. They aren't going to take GO. Likewise a commuter from Kitchener, unless they have quite a bit of disposable income for commuting, isn't going to be taking HSR from Kitchener to downtown Toronto.

 

[TOareaFan]

^here is what Glen Murray said about HSR fares to the CBC (note the fares he talks about are to London so it is hard to tell what they would be from KW).

"For a lot of people it will be a $10, $20, $25 ride if they're doing it every day. If you're a frequent rider you pay a much lower fare, if you book early or in advance you get a lower fare and if you're an infrequent rider who rides it once or twice a month you're probably going to pay a higher than $40 fare," said Murray.

GO fares now from Kitchener to Union are $15 (+/-).....it does not seem as if the HSR is targetted away from the regular commuter at all.

That aside, how many in each category are there.....collectively they may be able to support the investment in a rail service...but when you start fragmenting it out into multiple services....do they?

 

[BMO]

^here is what Glen Murray said about HSR fares to the CBC (note the fares he talks about are to London so it is hard to tell what they would be from KW).



GO fares now from Kitchener to Union are $15 (+/-).....it does not seem as if the HSR is targetted away from the regular commuter at all.

That aside, how many in each category are there.....collectively they may be able to support the investment in a rail service...but when you start fragmenting it out into multiple services....do they?

Honestly I can see the HSR as being a pretty vital link for businesses, especially when you look at all the tech companies in Waterloo Region and Toronto who often go to Waterloo or Toronto for meetings, whether they be financial meetings, business meetings with other companies, etc. Adding to this you have Sun Life Financial and Manulife Financial which I'm sure have their fair share of traffic between Toronto and Waterloo during the day, add commuter students (less-so since they'd likely have no issue taking a longer more local train) for the universities and this just MAY be a viable thing. Time is money, and it likely costs a company more money to send an employee to Toronto for a meeting for 4-5 hours as opposed to spending higher for an HSR ticket and sending them only for 3 hours. There are other arguments to be made about teleconferencing and technology being a solution to this but based on personal experience companies tend to prefer to do in-person meetings with external clients as opposed to just skyping them, etc.

 

[gweed123]

^here is what Glen Murray said about HSR fares to the CBC (note the fares he talks about are to London so it is hard to tell what they would be from KW).

GO fares now from Kitchener to Union are $15 (+/-).....it does not seem as if the HSR is targetted away from the regular commuter at all.

That seems pretty odd to me. If HSR fares are that low, why would people even bother using GO? And why would it be $15 from London to Union when it's over $9 from Burlington to Union on GO?

That aside, how many in each category are there.....collectively they may be able to support the investment in a rail service...but when you start fragmenting it out into multiple services....do they?

Realistically, the HSR service is only going to have stops in London, Kitchener, Pearson, and Union. That's a lot of gaps in between to be filled by the GO service. That's not unlike what it's like in Germany, where the HSR (ICE) trains run between major cities, while the DB Regio runs medium distance trips, often along the same corridors. Inside of the metro areas, the S-Bahn system provides service, while inside of the urban areas the U-Bahns provide service.

 

[MisterF]

I get that argument (not sure I agree with it but I get it).....but how much more of that effect do you get from the HSR than you would already get from the shny new electric RER trains running frequently between Toronto and KW?

I think the argument is that proper RER requires so much investment that building a 320 km/h HSR wouldn't cost much more. The benefits outweigh the costs. RER trains that stop more frequently can use the same tracks, as they do in other parts of the world.

 

[TOareaFan]

Realistically, the HSR service is only going to have stops in London, Kitchener, Pearson, and Union. That's a lot of gaps in between to be filled by the GO service. That's not unlike what it's like in Germany, where the HSR (ICE) trains run between major cities, while the DB Regio runs medium distance trips, often along the same corridors. Inside of the metro areas, the S-Bahn system provides service, while inside of the urban areas the U-Bahns provide service.

To be clear....I am not suggesting not building the RER network because HSR is there...when I am questioning the need for both....I am questioning the investment in HSR to KW/London

 

[TOareaFan]

I think the argument is that proper RER requires so much investment that building a 320 km/h HSR wouldn't cost much more. The benefits outweigh the costs. RER trains that stop more frequently can use the same tracks, as they do in other parts of the world.

I know they can use the same tracks....but it is the "wouldn't cost much more" part I am questioning. I don't know if the gov't has ever put a price tag on HSR (other than saying that the operating profits would pay back most of it for a net cost of $500 million)

he net cost to the government for capital investment would be about $500 million, once fare revenues have recouped the investment, though the total cost is not specified.

So it may be a bit of a circular argument....he says the net cost is $500 million once you factor in the ridership and money you make from that. I am wondering if the additional ridership gained by having the HSR on top of the RER is worth 1/2 billion dollars and if my worries in that area are right then the cost is probably more than 1/2 billion (ie. if the ridership is low then the way he has presented the cost it goes up).