High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[diminutive]

Hmm. The EcoTrain report released in 2010 put 300km/h HSR between London and Toronto at $1.65B and includes intermediate stops at Kitchener and Pearson. See page 7. Note that the MTO report assumes it would be a new ROW. If you can use large chunks of a pre-existing corridor then it is bound to eliminate a chunk of the cost.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/pu... Review of representative routing options.pdf

I'm not sure where you get that. I was citing from Table S-4 in the Final Report. These numbers are repeated throughout the Ecotrain report.

Most of the costs with HSR is expropriating the corridor then grade separating it.

Laying the tracks, doing electrical, buying train sets, and installing fencing is actually relatively cheap.

That's not totally true, at least in Ontario.

The cost of track alone is significantly larger than ROW aquisition. Even if Ontairo managed to buy a corridor of land for dirt cheap, it would still have huge costs for rolling stock, electrification, track works, earth works, signalling and maintenance depots.

Basically, regardless of whichever corridor used and how dirt cheaply it could be expropriated, you'd still face the bulk of HSR costs.

P.S. The alternative of sticking with the existing corridor and somehow convincing the people of Guelph, Stratford, Georgetown ect... not to sue the government for the next decade for splitting their community in half for a train service which doesn't even stop there isn't exactly appealing either.

 

[muller877]

the legal structure in Canada is very expropriation friendly, and the public (unlike the US) usually has very little sympathy towards those being expropriated. (see that article a year or so ago about the old couple that refused to move for the 407 extension, there was very little public support for their cause). Expropriation moves quickly and swiftly.

Land in rural Ontario is really cheap as well, plus flat. there would be no multi billion dollar tunnels (look at what they are doing in SF for the California rail, a huge tunnel into a $3 billion dollar station), no expensive wine country to expropriate, no HUGE multi billion dollar stations to build, etc. Kitchener would use Its $200 million Mobility hub, London would probably use something similar. then there are no mountain ranges to cut through, valleys to bridge over, etc. Its flat land all the way through.

Some of the most productive land in Canada is in this strip of land...soil called "Guelph Loam". $20,000 an acre. It will not be cheap

The Grand, the Nith and the Escarpment are all not cheap to get across.

 

[muller877]

That's not a commuter corridor, and is both a long and expensive trip. Even the cheap seats are in the $150 CAD range with first class hitting $450/500 CAD.

If we really can build this thing for $500M, and really can sell tickets for $40 for London to Toronto (very affordable alternative for students) this thing will have decent ridership.

The $500M pricetag is about 1/4th of what I would have expected so I'm looking forward to seeing the details.

Without stopping, the Eurostar takes 2.5 hours to get to Paris (450km). That's an average of 180km/hr. They have proposed 71 minutes for about 200km. 171 km/hr.

The Eurostar takes a bit of time to speed up in London and then goes pretty fast all the way to Paris. No steep grades and no towns. With 2 more stops and having to get through Kitchener it'll be interesting to see how they get to this speed. (I do question the location/rationale for the stops at the airports but nevertheless...the time will only be for direct service)

 

[rbt]

The same study that concluded that the corridor could not support all of a UPX/Expanded GO/HSR?

Yep. It gets easier if UPX and HSR service becomes a single service which I believe Murry mentioned may happen. We can run Pearson only trains every 30 minutes and London trains every 30 minutes; combined UPX service is 15 minute frequencies. I'm looking forward to an actual EA.

 

[rbt]

I was citing from Table S-4 in the Final Report. These numbers are repeated throughout the Ecotrain report.

The final report uses the LakeShore corridor via Hamilton due to congestion on the Georgetown corridor. The earthworks, grade separations, and bridge costs will be quite different.

Even if Ontairo managed to buy a corridor of land for dirt cheap

We will find out shortly. Indications were made that a chunk of the corridor would be bought next month. I also thought VIA recently took ownership of part of the Kitchener/London corridor, though that's strictly from memory which regularly gets things wrong.

I'm looking forward to the EA. This seems more doable all the time. The restrictions in the preliminary options report were more political than technical (wholly separate UPX service for example).

 

[TOareaFan]

Yep. It gets easier if UPX and HSR service becomes a single service which I believe Murry mentioned may happen. We can run Pearson only trains every 30 minutes and London trains every 30 minutes; combined UPX service is 15 minute frequencies. I'm looking forward to an actual EA.

Interesting to see how you get to 6 million passengers with rolling stock that can only accommodate 180 at a time?

 

[dunkalunk]

Some of the most productive land in Canada is in this strip of land...soil called "Guelph Loam". $20,000 an acre. It will not be cheap

The Grand, the Nith and the Escarpment are all not cheap to get across.

The lines on a map they have there look to be VERY preliminary. There are far better alignments between Kitchener and London than what's being proposed, such as following concession roads south of Tavistock or the dead-straight CP Rail ROW west of Woodstock. I also don't hold out much hope for bypassing Guelph. To the north, Guelph Lake is a significant barrier, and to the south, you're dealing with new suburban development in Guelph and a very significant deviation from the existing route.

 

[nfitz]

Without stopping, the Eurostar takes 2.5 hours to get to Paris (450km). That's an average of 180km/hr.

Looking at the current Eurostar schedule - www.eurostar.com/sites/default/files/pdf/timetable/UK_timetable.pdf it takes 2:16 hours one way, and 2:17 hours the other way, non-stop. The trains taking 2.5 hours stop in both Ashford and Ebbsfleet. And that includes the slower approach to Gare du Nord, St. Pancras, and the 160 km/hr speed limit in the Channel Tunnel.

They have proposed 71 minutes for about 200km. 171 km/hr.

The Eurostar takes a bit of time to speed up in London and then goes pretty fast all the way to Paris. No steep grades and no towns. With 2 more stops and having to get through Kitchener it'll be interesting to see how they get to this speed.

With Paris to London with 2 stops taking 2.5 hours, and averaging 180 km/hr (by your numbers), and only needing 171 km/hr for Toronto-London with 2 stops, it doesn't seem an unreasonable time estimate.

 

[rbt]

Interesting to see how you get to 6 million passengers with rolling stock that can only accommodate 180 at a time?

Why (or how for that matter) would you use UPX trains for HSR service to London? You're just being silly for the sake of being silly.

Surely you recognize not every train must be the exact same size or type. Pearson only trains can use existing UPX stock; London service with a stop near Pearson can use a larger train. For scheduling purposes, one or the other will go from Pearson to Union every 15 minutes and there is no congestion in the Georgetown corridor between the former UPX and HSR services because they never both run at the exact same time.

 

[Haljackey]

CTV London Report

Province to study possible high-speed rail line from London to Toronto

Ontario Transportation Minister Glen Murray was in London Wednesday announcing a plan to look into connecting London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Pearson International Airport and Toronto with high-speed rail.

Murray says "We have to build and imagine and dream and build things we have never built before, because the Americans have high speed rail coming to Buffalo soon."

The province says the rail line would improve travel options, reduce travel times and support economic development, and the effects would trickle down to Chatham and Windsor as well.

The trains would travel at 320 km/h, with 28 trains running from London to Toronto daily. Londoners could get to Pearson in under an hour, and downtown Toronto in just 71 minutes, with only one stop in Kitchener-Waterloo.

While it could cost from $2 to $3 billion to build, Murray adds that the revenue stream generated could be about $500 million annually and an estimated six million people would ride the rails.

"If we build high-speed rail, what's the first thing we would notice? More investment in London, more investment in Kitchener," Murray says.

The funding from the province will come from a 10-year, $29-billion 'Moving Ontario Forward' fund, but Murray hopes the federal government and the private sector will also contribute.

The province is planning to finalize the business case and begin an environmental assessment by the fall of 2014, with the hopes of opening the high-speed rail line to passengers in eight years.

The assessment would include identifying appropriate routes and examining technology options.

Deb Matthews, Liberal MPP for London North Centre, says, "This is exactly the kind of investment we need to get more people working and more people enjoying life in this extraordinary City of London.â€

Not everyone ready to jump on the train

Elgin-Middlesex-London PC MPP Jeff Yurek is among those who is skeptical about the plan, the estimated cost and the timing of the announcement just a day before the provincial budget.

"They told us the gas plant cancellations will only cost $40 million, we can't believe their numbers, we can't believe they'll do this at the end of the day."

London West NDP MPP Peggy Sattler adds "They just make more announcements and empty promises."

Some area businesses are also concerned about what a high-speed rail line would do to their bottom line.

Read more: http://london.ctvnews.ca/province-t...ed-rail-line-from-london-to-toronto-1.1799703

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Videos:

http://london.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.1137524

http://london.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.1800167

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Looks like the London airport and local airport shuttle companies are angered by the plan. I'd assume other transport companies like Greyhound and Air Canada are too.

 

[TOareaFan]

Why (or how for that matter) would you use UPX trains for HSR service to London? You're just being silly for the sake of being silly.

can we exchange information without comments like that....the comment was combining the two services....Metrolinx has confirmed that the trains are as big as they can be on the UPE because of station limitations.

Surely you recognize not every train must be the exact same size or type. Pearson only trains can use existing UPX stock; London service with a stop near Pearson can use a larger train.

The suggestion was that every other train on this combined service would continue on from Pearson to London.....would there not be an expectation of the UPE customers that the stop would be at Pearson rather than "near Pearson"?

For scheduling purposes, one or the other will go from Pearson to Union every 15 minutes and there is no congestion in the Georgetown corridor between the former UPX and HSR services because they never both run at the exact same time.

Whatever....if the plan/thought is that every other train would be longer than the UPE trains then a new station at Pearson would have to be built for the combined services and that is going to impact that capital cost/outlay significantly.

 

[diminutive]

Murray says "We have to build and imagine and dream and build things we have never built before, because the Americans have high speed rail coming to Buffalo soon."

That makes no sense at all.

The province says the rail line would improve travel options, reduce travel times and support economic development, and the effects would trickle down to Chatham and Windsor as well.

How on Earth would Windsor benefit?

The trains would travel at 320 km/h, with 28 trains running from London to Toronto daily. Londoners could get to Pearson in under an hour, and downtown Toronto in just 71 minutes, with only one stop in Kitchener-Waterloo.

While it could cost from $2 to $3 billion to build, Murray adds that the revenue stream generated could be about $500 million annually and an estimated six million people would ride the rails.

IOW "ridership will be twice as big as the previous report suggested, for no apparent reason. Trust us."

"If we build high-speed rail, what's the first thing we would notice? More investment in London, more investment in Kitchener," Murray says.

That's just total BS. The econometric literature on high speed trains is very ambiguous. There's no clear evidence that any new economic activity is created at all. What's often observed is investment which was previously distributed amongst many cities is redirected to those who secure stations. So, maybe London or Kitchener may see a bit more investment (doubtful, given the low overall modal share of rail travel), but that would almost certainly come at the expense of cities like Guelph.

The funding from the province will come from a 10-year, $29-billion 'Moving Ontario Forward' fund, but Murray hopes the federal government and the private sector will also contribute.

IOW: "We totally think this train is sweet and makes total economic sense, but some other people should pay for it, as well."

The province is planning to finalize the business case and begin an environmental assessment by the fall of 2014, with the hopes of opening the high-speed rail line to passengers in eight years..

IOW: "The province is hoping to postpone any actual work on the project until after any potential election. The Minister insists the timing of the announcement is purely coincidental."

The assessment would include identifying appropriate routes and examining technology options.

IOW: "why let little details like route, cost, technology and implementation stop us from making bold predictions?"

Deb Matthews, Liberal MPP for London North Centre, says, "This is exactly the kind of investment we need to get more people working and more people enjoying life in this extraordinary City of London.”

There is extremely little evidence to support this. It could even make employment worse in secondary cities like London if employers opt to consolidate operations in the GTA, taking advantage of the HSR to reduce the effective distances.

Elgin-Middlesex-London PC MPP Jeff Yurek is among those who is skeptical about the plan, the estimated cost and the timing of the announcement just a day before the provincial budget.

"They told us the gas plant cancellations will only cost $40 million, we can't believe their numbers, we can't believe they'll do this at the end of the day."

London West NDP MPP Peggy Sattler adds "They just make more announcements and empty promises."

IOW: "People who believes this are fickle mush heads"

 

[nfitz]

How on Earth would Windsor benefit?

How could it not benefit? Travel time from Toronto to London is currently 127 minutes, and 118 minutes from London to Windsor. If they manage to knock 56 minutes off London to Toronto and get it down to 71 minutes, then it's essentially only about 3 hours from Windsor to Toronto instead of 4 hours.

 

[innsertnamehere]

kind of hard to do any work without getting financial approval for it, something that goes in, you guessed it, the budget.

 

[diminutive]

How could it not benefit? Travel time from Toronto to London is currently 127 minutes, and 118 minutes from London to Windsor. If they manage to knock 56 minutes off London to Toronto and get it down to 71 minutes, then it's essentially only about 3 hours from Windsor to Toronto instead of 4 hours.

Did I miss the tweet about electrifying London-Windsor? Unless that happens or we invent dual mode high speed rail trains, no trains to Windsor are going to benefit from this.

kind of hard to do any work without getting financial approval for it, something that goes in, you guessed it, the budget.

The MTO can fund an EA or preliminary assessment without having to put it in the budget. (I'd add, it's only been 5 years since the LAST time the OLP commissioned a study on HSR in Ontario, which Murray's totally ignored.)

The only reason we're seeing these theatrics is for their own political fortunes.