Guelph-Cambridge Initial Business Case - Battery Multiple Units now proposed

[Bureaucromancer]

The Sotuh end of ION is going to be quite a bit faster than the on street stuff in Kitchener. If you’re really looking to speed the Cambridge KW trips optimization and a downtown Kitchener tunnel seem more desirable than a new greenfield route out there…

Also, if you WERE going to push that, I’d suggest tying in to the airport spur that’s showed up on some high level documents.

 

[mdrejhon]

I really don't enjoy pouring cold water on transit projects, but according to the attached document this project would spend hundreds of millions on less than 1000 riders per day. It's not worth it. There is very little potential here to capture riders from cars, and this is not helped by poor station location and forced transfers at both ends.

I view this line under the lens of seeing ION LRT Phase 2 *and* allday GO service to Kitchener.

In that case, I believe ridership will be well over 1000 given the long-term aspirations to densify the region. There's obviously the famous NIMBY factor here, but look at what happening -- even Cambridge now has gleaming new >10+ storey towers!

I was there this summer, and it looked different than ten years ago.

Obviously, the devil is in the deets. Let's say this project does not start operating until year 2044 -- that's twenty years from now.

As long as it's not designed as a connecting service but also a serious way to get around the Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph-Cambridge region (long-term, e.g. 20+ year)...

...I can easily win a bet that (if properly designed, as a 30min service) year 2044 it's well beyond 1000 people per day ASSUMING the presence of ~30min allday Kitchener GO service *and* Phase 2 ION LRT.

Also, Ottawa's first LRT was built for a cost of less than $20 million dollars on an existing ROW. While this BMU route is more complicated (grade separations).

I just was in Cambridge earlier this summer. There's freaking *brand new towers* in Cambridge already. There's also crane towers too. Although Guelph isn't there yet, a developer attempted a proposal for a 23-storey tower (now rejected) in Guelph of all places. But it's a matter of time before a developer successfully begins building tallness in Guelph. Cambridge is way ahead, there's an active construction site for a 37-storey condo already under construction in Cambridge, chrissakes. This isn't Cambridge 2014.

So theoretically, just give it time, and it's likely significantly over 1000 per day.

Hamilton LRT was first proposed in 2007 (Rapid Ready study) leading to a 2011 IBP (Hamilton funded, submitted to Metrolinx) and construction is only starting roughly next year (early prep is already under way), for a possible operational date of maybe 2031 (more realistically 2032 or 2033). That's 20+ years from IBC.

I see many instances of 20+ year IBC-to-operational, including Ottawa's earlier cancelled 2003 LRT to Barrhaven (now a stop in Ottawa LRT Phase 3, I believe), as well as Eglinton Subway 1995 (heavy rail) reborn as Eglinton Crosstown LRT (~2025). There's also the original Transit City lines such as Finch West LRT, first IBC'd roughly twenty years ago(ish). Sometimes the plans are rewritten, and sometimes resurrected (like Hamilton LRT). Nothing new.

Even being faster and saying 15 years - this BMU (BEMU?) is probably a 2039 - 2044 operational date. (Even extrapolating that far ahead, BMUs will be even better of a fit, too).

I see no problem letting it get it all the way to TPAP and EA stage, let it cook on the shelf until the other pieces fall in place, and then push forward.

 

[mdrejhon]

This just seems like over kill for what's essentially a feeder line into the Kitchener line.

No. It isn't anymore in the time windows we're talking about -- I would think by 2044, that will be less than half of the commuters.

The intentional lowball of numbers definitely occurs to save face as the projects gets incrementally more attractive; Ottawa's first LRT had more than double its predicted ridership in its first year, due to students using it.

Also ridership tends to grows, if densification is occuring. Which it definitely is (Already has some new 20+ storey towers now, 37 storey tower already under construction in Cambridge). Calgary LRT had only 11,000 per day in its first year, and now that route gets over 300,000 per day. While that's a much bigger LRT than this one, an existing heavy-rail-based transit route is sometimes cheaper than building anew.

By the early 2040s, enough regional densification may have already occured that most users of this route would likely be commuting intra-regionally.

Both types of commuters will be a big part of this route.

For a year 2040s densified tricities region (or quadcities, if you consider KW separate)...
...A triangle of service is ideal for intraregional travel:

- 30min allday service via GO trains between Kitchener and Guelph
- 15min+ allday ION LRT between Kitchener and Cambridge
- 30min allday BEMU service between Cambridge and Guelph

Assuming the densification continuing (on average, recessions included), the economic benefits of a rapid transit triangle is immense; and easily pays long-term, especially if various optimizations are done between now and then (rail grade separations, station connectivity, etc). After all, ION Stage 2 connects to the Cambridge end of the LRT too, and that's another way to get to different parts of Cambridge for Guelph residents (etc), including students of the satellite campuses. Buses will no longer be enough in 2044.

There's the gumpton of literal skyscrapers already being built in Cambridge (and soon Guelph, especially if other pieces fall in place), and the new "okay, lets begin to talk densification" members of their respective City Councils. Even as squeals to widen Highway 124 occurs, that should not be at the cost of letting other solutions be unheard (or done in parallel). There's lots of time between now and year 2044. Perhaps, let's get more buses started. That gets the BMU service levels by ready by 2044.

 

[reaperexpress]

I really don't enjoy pouring cold water on transit projects, but according to the attached document this project would spend hundreds of millions on less than 1000 riders per day. It's not worth it. There is very little potential here to capture riders from cars, and this is not helped by poor station location and forced transfers at both ends.

I think this serves at a reminder that a basic rail service such as this doesn't need to be overengineered. Just fix up the tracks, build a basic station in Cambridge and buy a couple of cheap trains.

I guess this is another reminder that branch line shuttles are almost never worth it, and that this route should be served with busses.

It's not just a branch line shuttle, though. It's a service that connects a city of 138,000 with a city of 144,000 that are 20 km apart.

My suspicion about the notional service plan is ML will be tempted to run a couple "regular" GO trains Cambridge-Union at peak, on the premise that Toronto bound commuters will be much happier if they have a seamless one-seat ride to Union (and likely save a few minutes that way) ... and why soak up seats on trains ex Kitchener when they are already fullish trains ex Pinebush....the point being, that forces the design of the line to a heavy rail standard - at much higher cost - when maybe this is the perfect application for a lighter rail solution with a lower pricetag and less of a footprint especially in central Guelph. And that opens up any number of opportunities to a more diverse GO fleet that does not depend on the standard bilevel. so, I would not rush to overbuild at Pinebush.

It's an interesting question how much GO train use would affect the design. It would presumably be only a couple trains per weekday, so it wouldn't necessarily need to affect the design that much. GO trains would just need to travel at lower speed than the BMUs, similarly to how different types of trains have different track speeds on existing railways.

I am not against going to battery or other technologies, especially in a secondary line service, these technologies are definitely on their way.......however.... I firmly believe that GO should not be a trail blazer in technologies and should only buy products that have been validated on other properties. Let somebody else pay for the teething troubles and learning curves ! The point is for politicians (who may be technically naive, and susceptible to snake oil pitches) to 7nderstand that their necks are a lot safer if they don't rush for the spotlight.

This seems like a good use case for battery-electric multiple units since it's a minor low-frequency line. In the distant future the mainline from Kitchener to Georgetown might get electrified, allowing the BEMU to charge using shared electrification while it's laying over in Guelph. The technology is new, but by the time the trains are delivered there will already be a fair number in service, even within North America. Metra and CalTrain both ordered BEMUs this year.

That said, I do think that they should stick to DMU for the initial implementation. BEMUs increase the upfront cost of introducing service and saving the railway, undermining the already-tenuous cost-benefit ratio and thereby reducing the chance of securing funding. With DMUs, they could potentially get some cheap second-hand units to keep the project costs down, similar to how OC Transpo managed to build the original O-Train line for $20 Million including second-hand DMUs from DB. OC Transpo themselves might be a good source of cheap trains for Cambridge, since they have more Alstom LINT trains than they need for the Line 4 airport shuttle. They use a train made up of two 2-car LINT units on Line 2 while the remainder of the line is 4-car FLIRT trains. They'd probably be happy to sell 2 LINTs to Cambridge and buy themselves another 4-car FLIRT set to have a uniform fleet on Line 2.

OC Transpo Alstom LINT:

When those DMUs reach end of life, that's when I'd look into BEMUs, or potential conversion to an LRT line from downtown Galt to downtown Guelph.

 

[mdrejhon]

DMUs would be great too. Maybe Metrolinx wants to electrify UPX and sell the old UPX trains, as another source of DMUs by year 2040ish.

That being said, BEMU would be a strong contender by that year, so it may depend on what is available.

And whether the new Federal Transit Fund is unlocked only for clean transit. Additional variable.

 

[reaperexpress]

DMUs would be great too. Maybe Metrolinx wants to electrify UPX and sell the old UPX trains, as another source of DMUs by year 2040ish.

That being said, BEMU would be a strong contender by that year, so it may depend on what is available.

The problem with the UPX Nippon Sharyo DMUs is the Great Platform Height Debate™. If GO decides on 1220mm level boarding then that would work, but if they settle on 610mm (as appears to be the case) then the Nippon Sharyo trains wouldn't be able to share platforms with GO trains at Guelph Central, making the transfer less convenient and the project more expensive.

And whether the new Federal Transit Fund is unlocked only for clean transit. Additional variable.

True, that's a good point.

 

[the_conestoga_guy]

I think one part of the BEMU technology selection that isn't being discussed enough is that Metrolinx appears willing to test a new technology. If these types of trains are able to do what they're proposed to do, think of how many other spurs could be added throughout Ontario with similar non-emitting trainsets. I'm happy to see some innovative thinking.

As for the ridership numbers, I think the local leaders are viewing this project as a larger part of the whole transformation of Hespeler Road in Cambridge. Cambridge has historically been the NIMBY capital of Waterloo Region, but it hasn't stopped the local council from recognizing that the status quo isn't sustainable from a growth perspective.

https://www.cambridge.ca/en/learn-about/resources/Growth-and-Intensification-Study/Hespeler-Road-Corridor-Secondary-Plan--Dec-5-2022.pdf

There are a ton of high rise projects in the pipeline for this stretch of road which have all been proposed since the Region announced their ION route plans. For example, this proposal is a short walk away, but would absolutely blow up the local ridership numbers if it was built. Of course, many projects in the Region have been delayed, so who knows what the future holds.

Proposed massive development by SmartCentres would establish ‘improved gateway’ to Cambridge

Looking to establish a “new and improved gateway” for Cambridge, SmartCentres is seeking city council’s support for a Minister’s Zoning Order (MZO) to develop a mixed-use community on their land

www.cambridgetimes.ca

 

[duffo]

I think one part of the BEMU technology selection that isn't being discussed enough is that Metrolinx appears willing to test a new technology. If these types of trains are able to do what they're proposed to do, think of how many other spurs could be added throughout Ontario with similar non-emitting trainsets. I'm happy to see some innovative thinking.

As for the ridership numbers, I think the local leaders are viewing this project as a larger part of the whole transformation of Hespeler Road in Cambridge. Cambridge has historically been the NIMBY capital of Waterloo Region, but it hasn't stopped the local council from recognizing that the status quo isn't sustainable from a growth perspective.

https://www.cambridge.ca/en/learn-about/resources/Growth-and-Intensification-Study/Hespeler-Road-Corridor-Secondary-Plan--Dec-5-2022.pdf

There are a ton of high rise projects in the pipeline for this stretch of road which have all been proposed since the Region announced their ION route plans. For example, this proposal is a short walk away, but would absolutely blow up the local ridership numbers if it was built. Of course, many projects in the Region have been delayed, so who knows what the future holds.

Proposed massive development by SmartCentres would establish ‘improved gateway’ to Cambridge

Looking to establish a “new and improved gateway” for Cambridge, SmartCentres is seeking city council’s support for a Minister’s Zoning Order (MZO) to develop a mixed-use community on their land

www.cambridgetimes.ca

This entire project is led by the Region and has no involvement with Metrolinx - so I wouldn't assume that there will be any takeaways for the rest of the GGH. The next step for the Region is to get MX's blessing to advance it.

 

[jje1000]

Honestly given how extensive car usage is outside of major cities, rail will almost always lose out especially when starting from scratch- but these projects should be considered more as longer-term city-building projects rather than anything with an immediately attractive business case. Even if this project isn't viable now, land should be banked regardless.

Imagine how different our transport modal breakdown would have looked if our interurban rail systems had remained intact?

 

[C_Johnson_1995]

I think this serves at a reminder that a basic rail service such as this doesn't need to be overengineered. Just fix up the tracks, build a basic station in Cambridge and buy a couple of cheap trains.

It's not just a branch line shuttle, though. It's a service that connects a city of 138,000 with a city of 144,000 that are 20 km apart.

So a small branchline shuttle then? I'm still at somewhat of a loss as to why a bus service would not suffice here in the long term. The distance is too short and the cities are too small. This doesn't seem to be a corridor where rail makes sense, both operationally and from a capital perspective.

Plus, with the corridor slated for abandonment and likely redevelopment, I can't imagine the Region will have the interest in saving it. If they were interested, they would have bought it already. Plus, with cost escalation, ION Stage 2 is unlikely to happen, and as a result, this project is dead in the water. At least with a bus, you can bring the service to where people live.

If they really want GO trains to Cambridge, which in itself is misguided and unlikely, it will be significantly easier to just tie in a couple daily frequencies to the Milton line dedicated tracks project.

 

[ARG1]

So a small branchline shuttle then? I'm still at somewhat of a loss as to why a bus service would not suffice here in the long term. The distance is too short and the cities are too small. This doesn't seem to be a corridor where rail makes sense, both operationally and from a capital perspective.

Considering the fact that the existing busses take 56m, it can't be understated how much of an improvement 15-17m is. Also I'm pretty sure you can find plenty examples of branchlines running between smaller cities in Europe, I don't think rail - especially since the corridor already exists and isn't used much, is completely unreasonable.

Plus, with the corridor slated for abandonment and likely redevelopment, I can't imagine the Region will have the interest in saving it. If they were interested, they would have bought it already. Plus, with cost escalation, ION Stage 2 is unlikely to happen, and as a result, this project is dead in the water. At least with a bus, you can bring the service to where people live.

The region is the one that's actively pushing for this link to be built. Also, are you really advocating for ripping out railway corridors and developing over them?

If they really want GO trains to Cambridge, which in itself is misguided and unlikely, it will be significantly easier to just tie in a couple daily frequencies to the Milton line dedicated tracks project.

Cambridge and Guelph are 2 nearby cities that people regularly commute between. The same cannot be said with Cambridge and Milton. The only people that would benefit from a Milton Line extension are those commuting to Toronto, and even then if I lived in Cambridge I would prefer hourly all day trains with a transfer that can also get me to Guelph, over rush hour only trains to Toronto. Not to mention the distance from Milton to Cambridge is longer than Guelph to Cambridge, so you're technically adding significantly more track-kilometres to the network. I really can't think of many ways you can argue that a Milton extension is unironically better.

 

[mdrejhon]

This entire project is led by the Region and has no involvement with Metrolinx - so I wouldn't assume that there will be any takeaways for the rest of the GGH. The next step for the Region is to get MX's blessing to advance it.

Sidestepping the debate of "should Metrolinx be involved?"....

Metrolinx network map diagrams now show ION LRT, indicating its importance as a line that interchanges with Kitchener GO.

While it is not yet in Metrolinx sphere, it could very well eventually be, given Metrolinx now funding some standalone projects outside the Toronto area, like Hamilton LRT.

Metrolinx purview has expanded to take over some TTC subways. It was GTA only, then GTHA, and now GGH. So it's possible it becomes a Metrolinx project if Waterloo Region gets pulled into Metrolinx purview eventually.

Is it a good idea? I don't know. Depends on the details.

It's more 25-year master planning at this stage. By 2026 or so, Metrolinx 2051 RTP will come out to refine Metrolinx 2041.

Their once a decade master planning exercise, will probably have their PIC's in the coming year or two. They tend to update these RTP, every 10 years. GO 2020, Metrolinx 2031, Metrolinx 2041, Metrolinx 2051.

Some routes gets expedited and others delayed. We saw this with Metrolinx 2031 turning 2041, where a lot of 2031 aspirations ended up fantasymap, other routes materialized that weren't in the master plan, other routes happened more or less on master plan timeline, while some other line items are ahead of schedule, or visualized differently. (E.g. The underground rail line under Queen in Metrolinx 2031 almost two decades ago, is now loosely re-visualized as Ontario Line).

2051 RTP will be yet another course-correction in master planning too.

The possible inclusion of this DMU/BEMU transit route in Metrolinx 2051 will say lots, and it's in the interests of Cambridge to get their "in" with their IBC.

Whether or not Metorlinx funds it, an inclusion in Metrolinx 2051 RTP in ~2026 should be a goal of Cambridge. Routes in a master plan become campaign fodder in elections, increasing odds of it actually happening.

</ExperiencedArmchairAnalystView>

 

[reaperexpress]

So a small branchline shuttle then? I'm still at somewhat of a loss as to why a bus service would not suffice here in the long term. The distance is too short and the cities are too small. This doesn't seem to be a corridor where rail makes sense, both operationally and from a capital perspective.

page 7:

page 26:

Plus, with the corridor slated for abandonment and likely redevelopment, I can't imagine the Region will have the interest in saving it. If they were interested, they would have bought it already.

Page v:

Plus, with cost escalation, ION Stage 2 is unlikely to happen, and as a result, this project is dead in the water. At least with a bus, you can bring the service to where people live.

Page 10:

If they really want GO trains to Cambridge, which in itself is misguided and unlikely, it will be significantly easier to just tie in a couple daily frequencies to the Milton line dedicated tracks project.

Page 4:

 

[mdrejhon]

A transit speed up of 56 minutes to 17 minutes is fairly transformative. There will be major economic impacts for even intra-regional travel.

 

[Garuda]

A transit speed up of 56 minutes to 17 minutes is fairly transformative. There will be major economic impacts for even intra-regional travel.

If that's the case then there must be a plan to upgrade the crossing at Blackbridge Road. The only "4 way" stop involing a railway I've ever been to.

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.451...-x5jQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu